Economic
Flash business surveys for March due this week
With the war in Iran ongoing, this week’s flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) results for March will be a focus of attention as they are expected to show weaker business activity...
Population and housing up early in 2026 while exports remain flat
We highlight three early-2026 data releases covering Ireland’s continued population growth, an increase in new housing commencements and a subdued start to the year for goods...
Early signs of a moderation in 2026 residential property prices
January’s gain in residential property prices was half as big as the increase in December. This is consistent with our expectation that price increases will moderate this year given our...
Central banks meet this week amid geoeconomic uncertainty
A host of global central bank meetings this week take place against the backdrop of huge geoeconomic uncertainty owing to the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran. With broad conflict...
Jobs growth of about 2.5% in December and January
We continue to look through November’s surprisingly weak payrolls result and note that December and January payrolls, with typical revisions factored in, grew by about 2.5% in annual...
Q4 national accounts show strong economic growth in 2025
The quarterly national accounts for Q4 2025 are consistent with our long-standing view that the Irish economy remains in a high-growth phase, despite high global uncertainty. Consumer...
Labour market remains robust based on latest exchequer data
February’s exchequer returns showed a strong rebound in non-corporation tax growth, driven by income tax, albeit this came after a soft result in January. However, we point to new...
December property prices up 7%; volumes jumped 15%
Residential property prices grew strongly again in 2025, increasing by 7.5% compared to 2024. This was an unsurprising result given Ireland’s large shortfall of housing and continued...
Services inflation in February came in above expectations
This morning’s UK inflation result for February was always likely to be discounted by markets given it reflects the economy prior to the ongoing Middle East conflict. However, the...
More rate cuts likely after the UK economy weakened in Q4
This morning’s GDP data for the UK paint a similar picture to the prior year, with growth in the first half considerably stronger than in the second half of the year. The Q4 result was...
UK inflation lands well below consensus in November
Annual UK inflation fell well below consensus expectations in November, reaching 3.2% compared to a 3.5% consensus figure. The declines were quite broadly based, and core inflation also...
Budget doubles fiscal headroom with backloaded fiscal drag
As expected, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered another difficult UK Budget. However, the details of the Budget were unexpectedly leaked prior to her speech. Nonetheless, the UK bond...
