Economic Debt & Credit Research
Irish Department of Finance revises up its growth forecasts
Yesterday, the Irish Department of Finance updated its forecasts — now expecting 5.6% GDP growth in 2018 and 4.0% in 2019. The deficit is expected to fall to 0.2% of GDP this year and...
Irish minority government to run until at least end-2018
Over the weekend, Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin said that he will support the current minority government until at least the end of 2018. This has surprised political commentators...
Irish economy: labour market recovery has further to run
The recent sharp decline in the unemployment rate to 6.6% begs the question of how much further the recovery has left to run. We think there is still plenty of slack in the labour...
Eurozone and UK: prospects diverge in post-Brexit Europe
In our January issue of Davy Economics Monthly, we highlight the diverging outlook for the eurozone and UK economies in 2017. Concerns around political events – namely, elections in...
Irish economy Irish house price inflation accelerates to 13%
Today’s Residential Property Price (RPPI) data show another sharp 1% gain in February, with annual inflation accelerating to 13% from 12% in January. Double-digit inflation is now evident... ...
Irish economy Irish industrial production higher in year to February
While today’s February data show a sharp fall on the month, industrial production is still up 0.6% in the first two months of the year compared to 2017. However, this is entirely driven... ...
Irish economy Small shortfall in Irish tax revenues in Q1 2018
Tax revenues in Q1 2018 were €12bn – 1.2%, or €141m, behind Budget targets. The biggest surprise is a 12% (€40m) shortfall in stamp duties – questioning whether the higher 6% commercial... ...
Irish economy Irish unemployment steady at 6.1% in March
Today’s data show the unemployment rate was steady at 6.1% in March, down from 6.3% in December. Although there was no improvement in the headline rate, the total number of... ...
Unreliable boyfriend Carney strikes again
February’s Bank of England Inflation Report had led markets to price in a rate hike in May as almost certain. However, on April 19th, Governor Mark Carney surprised investors by saying...
End of the UK real pay squeeze
UK labour market data will be released today. We expect jobs growth will remain robust — up 1% on the year — and, crucially, pay growth will accelerate to 3%, exceeding the 2.7% CPI...
Rightmove asking prices see slow 0.4% gain in April
Rightmove data released overnight show UK asking prices up 0.4% in April to £305,700. Annual price inflation was 1.6%. London prices fell 0.6%, down 1.6% on the year to £628,000. Ahead of...
Revising up our UK GDP forecasts
We have revised up our UK GDP growth forecasts a notch to 1.5% in 2018, bringing us in line with consensus. Our first forecast for 2019 is for 1.8% growth, slightly above consensus at...