Economic
May inflation moderates, but a pick-up is likely into summer
Headline inflation moderated to 3.5% this month, in line with our latest forecast. However, core inflation was faster than we expected at 2.8%, mainly as a result of services inflation –...
US household spending in a precarious position into Q2
Ireland’s flash inflation reading for May is due later this week, and we expect it to moderate to 3.5%. This is based on energy inflation remaining high, an increase in food inflation and...
A pivotal week ahead for the Bank of England
With a challenging political backdrop for gilts at present, we continue to see UK rate-hike expectations as overdone. If this week’s UK labour market and consumer prices data remain in...
Payrolls growth faster in higher-wage sectors, unlike US and UK
We estimate that Ireland’s employee payrolls annual growth picked up to 2.7% in Q1. The increase was broadly based and suggests the economy is on course to grow rapidly again this...
Volatile labour force survey at odds with steady payroll gains
We have noted for some time increased uncertainty surrounding the official labour market data, which have been volatile and difficult to interpret due to base effects. The latest Q1...
First-time buyer activity grew strongly again in March
One takeaway from today’s residential property price data for March is the continued strong growth in first-time buyer (FTB) transactions in March. This aligns with a key message...
Resilient Irish economy in March despite high global uncertainty
The latest exchequer returns for March and card payments data for February align with our view that the Irish economy began 2026 in good shape. We think an inflation boost to tax...
Jobs growth of about 2.5% in December and January
We continue to look through November’s surprisingly weak payrolls result and note that December and January payrolls, with typical revisions factored in, grew by about 2.5% in annual...
April inflation hits our forecast for another dovish surprise
April’s inflation fell to 2.8%, below consensus and matching our forecast. Core inflation also declined to 2.5%, with services inflation down to 3.2%. The results follow yesterday’s (May...
UK growth picked up in Q1 after Budget-driven weakness in Q4
The UK economy was stronger than expected in March, and after some downward revision to February’s result, Q1 growth was in line with consensus. This resilience is encouraging despite...
Escaping two lost decades
May 06 2026 07:00 IST/BST
Inflation meets consensus in March before likely falls in April
UK consumer price inflation (CPI) was in line with consensus for March, and slightly below consensus for core inflation. While services inflation remains higher than the Bank of England...
