Economic Debt & Credit Research
Visa data signal buoyant Irish consumer spending
The latest Visa consumer spending index for May suggests that Irish consumer spending is set for another strong expansion in Q2. The value of Visa card transactions was up 3.7% in...
Central Bank strikes cautious tone, signalling that counter-cyclical capital buffer may rise from zero
The Central Bank Macro-Financial Review, published on Friday, struck a cautious tone – identifying a range of risks facing the Irish economy including Brexit, rising house prices and...
Irish economy: labour market recovery has further to run
The recent sharp decline in the unemployment rate to 6.6% begs the question of how much further the recovery has left to run. We think there is still plenty of slack in the labour...
Eurozone and UK: prospects diverge in post-Brexit Europe
In our January issue of Davy Economics Monthly, we highlight the diverging outlook for the eurozone and UK economies in 2017. Concerns around political events – namely, elections in...
Irish economy Labour market recovery continues apace
The labour force survey shows another strong increase in employment in Q1 2018, up 0.7% on the quarter and 2.9% on the year. In absolute terms, the number of people at work has... ...
Irish economy Planning permissions rise by 81% in Q1 2018
The planning permissions data show a surge to 8,405 units in Q1 2018, up 81% on the year. Permissions granted for apartments are up very sharply, by 178% on the year. In total,... ...
Irish economy New housing series brings clarity to the supply-side debate
The publication by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of a new housing completions series brings much-needed clarity to the debate on the level of housebuilding in Ireland. The number... ...
Irish economy Property price inflation continues to accelerate
Residential property price inflation accelerated to 13% in April from 12.6% in March, according to the latest CSO data. While this series suggests tighter mortgage lending rules have yet... ...
UK data point to weak start to Q2
A plethora of data releases suggest that the UK economy got off to weak start to Q2. While construction output was higher in April, manufacturing output fell unexpectedly and the...
Further signs that UK GDP growth will bounce back in Q2
British Retail Consortium and Barclaycard data both showed UK consumer spending up 5% in May, indicating – alongside the services PMI at 54.0 – that activity bouncing back after poor...
April retail sales allay fears on UK consumer
Today’s second release of UK GDP growth should help to show that the 0.1% growth in Q1 2018 was temporarily depressed by the poor weather – hurting construction activity and retail...
UK CPI inflation data could take markets by surprise
Today’s UK CPI data could see inflation fall back to 2.4% in April due to the early timing of Easter and the volatile airfares component. This will reinforce doubts regarding the likelihood...