Davy Research

Economic Debt & Credit Research

Irish Economy

Irish Department of Finance revises up its growth forecasts

Yesterday, the Irish Department of Finance updated its forecasts — now expecting 5.6% GDP growth in 2018 and 4.0% in 2019. The deficit is expected to fall to 0.2% of GDP this year and...

April 18 2018 | Conall MacCoille | Irish Economy | 4 pages

Irish minority government to run until at least end-2018

Over the weekend, Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin said that he will support the current minority government until at least the end of 2018. This has surprised political commentators...

April 9 2018 | Conall MacCoille | Irish Economy | 4 pages

Irish economy: labour market recovery has further to run

The recent sharp decline in the unemployment rate to 6.6% begs the question of how much further the recovery has left to run. We think there is still plenty of slack in the labour...

March 3 2017 | David McNamara | Davy Economics Monthly | 8 pages

Eurozone and UK: prospects diverge in post-Brexit Europe

In our January issue of Davy Economics Monthly, we highlight the diverging outlook for the eurozone and UK economies in 2017. Concerns around political events – namely, elections in...

January 18 2017 | David McNamara | Davy Economics Monthly | 11 pages


Irish Economic Indicators

Irish economy Irish house price inflation accelerates to 13%

Today’s Residential Property Price (RPPI) data show another sharp 1% gain in February, with annual inflation accelerating to 13% from 12% in January. Double-digit inflation is now evident... ...

April 12 2018 | Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 4 pages

Irish economy Irish industrial production higher in year to February

While today’s February data show a sharp fall on the month, industrial production is still up 0.6% in the first two months of the year compared to 2017. However, this is entirely driven... ...

April 10 2018 | David McNamara | Research Report | 4 pages

Irish economy Small shortfall in Irish tax revenues in Q1 2018

Tax revenues in Q1 2018 were €12bn – 1.2%, or €141m, behind Budget targets. The biggest surprise is a 12% (€40m) shortfall in stamp duties – questioning whether the higher 6% commercial... ...

April 4 2018 | Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 4 pages

Irish economy Irish unemployment steady at 6.1% in March

Today’s data show the unemployment rate was steady at 6.1% in March, down from 6.3% in December. Although there was no improvement in the headline rate, the total number of... ...

April 4 2018 | Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 4 pages


UK Economy

Unreliable boyfriend Carney strikes again

February’s Bank of England Inflation Report had led markets to price in a rate hike in May as almost certain. However, on April 19th, Governor Mark Carney surprised investors by saying...

April 20 2018 | Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 4 pages

End of the UK real pay squeeze

UK labour market data will be released today. We expect jobs growth will remain robust — up 1% on the year — and, crucially, pay growth will accelerate to 3%, exceeding the 2.7% CPI...

April 17 2018 | Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 4 pages

Rightmove asking prices see slow 0.4% gain in April

Rightmove data released overnight show UK asking prices up 0.4% in April to £305,700. Annual price inflation was 1.6%. London prices fell 0.6%, down 1.6% on the year to £628,000. Ahead of...

April 16 2018 | Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 4 pages

Revising up our UK GDP forecasts

We have revised up our UK GDP growth forecasts a notch to 1.5% in 2018, bringing us in line with consensus. Our first forecast for 2019 is for 1.8% growth, slightly above consensus at...

April 13 2018 | Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 4 pages


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

April 23 2018

  • EU : Eurozone services PMI, April
  • US : Existing home sales, March

April 24 2018

  • US : New home sales, March
  • US : Conf. Board consumer confidence, April

April 25 2018

  • : AIB Group - trading update

April 26 2018

  • EU : ECB main refinancing rate, Apr 26th
  • IRE : Overseas travel, March
  • UK : CBI dist. reported sales, April
  • US : Durable goods orders, March
  • US : Initial jobless claims, April 21st

April 27 2018

  • EU : Business climate indicator, April
  • EU : Consumer confidence, April
  • IRE : Retail sales index, March
  • US : GDP annualised, Q1
  • US : University of Michigan sentiment, April

April 30 2018

  • IRE : Credit aggregates, April
  • US : Chicago purchasing manager, April
  • US : Personal spending, March

May 1 2018

  • UK : Mortgage approvals, March
  • US : ISM manufacturing, April

May 2 2018

  • EU : Unemployment rate, March
  • IRE : Exchequer returns, March
  • US : FOMC rate decision, upper bound, May 2nd
  • US : FOMC rate decision, lower bound, May 2nd

May 3 2018

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