Economic

Budget 2024 announces €14bn package

The €14bn (2.7% of GDP) Budget package announced today is broadly in line with expectations. Core public spending will rise sharply, by 6.1% in 2024, as expenditure on health, housing,...

Irish Services PMI falls to 54.5 in September

This morning’s Irish Services PMI at 54.5 in September is the weakest reading since January, but still points to a solid pace of growth and compares favourably to the flash euro area...

New Irish economic forecasts

We have revised down our forecast for Irish GDP growth to 3% in 2023 due to poor out-turns in H1, mainly reflecting a very specific issue relating to the export of semi-conductors....

Politics: mapping change into 2024

Opinion polls, showing relatively consistent trends in recent years, point to Sinn Féin being the largest party following the next general election. However, while Sinn Féin has a large lead...

Irish residential property prices rise for the first time in six months

Yesterday’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for June rose by 0.6%, the first gain since December after five consecutive months of decline. Prices rose by 0.3% in Dublin, breaking...

Irish Construction PMI falls to 45.6 in July

This morning’s Irish Construction PMI at 45.6 in July, signalling a fresh contraction after stability in June, is surprising. The readings are not consistent with the recent pick-up in...

Residential property price and mortgage approvals data point to resilient Irish housing market

Taken together, this morning’s Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) mortgage approvals data and yesterday’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) point to the resilience of...

Irish Construction PMI points to activity improving in H2

This morning’s Irish Construction PMI at 49.4 in May is still below the 50 no-change level but suggests that activity will pick up in the coming months. New orders rose for a fourth...

UK PMI surveys point to recession in H2 2023

Last week’s flash UK composite PMI at 46.8 in September shows the clear risk of recession in H2 2023, on past form consistent with a 0.4% quarterly fall in GDP. Worryingly, the PMI...

Bank of England holds rates at 5.25%

Yesterday’s (September 21st) surprise decision to hold rates at 5.25% could well reflect that the Bank of England had seen a preview of today’s PMI surveys for September. Today’s...

UK CPI inflation shows surprise fall to 6.7% in August

Markets have pared back their bets that the Bank of England will raise interest rates tomorrow (September 21st), sterling is under pressure, following this morning’s CPI inflation data...

UK GDP contracts 0.5% in July

This morning's data showing that UK GDP contracted by 0.5% in July reverses the sharp 0.5% gain in June. Overall, the UK economy has effectively flatlined over the past three months....