Economic
Economy’s strength evident in blowout tax receipts for July
The key takeaway from July's exchequer returns is ongoing real-time strength for the Irish economy into H2. The labour market remains robust, as indicated by income taxes, social...
Spending growth has matched economic growth since 2019
Recent days have seen several new reports and data releases. The Mid-Year Expenditure Report (MYER) reiterates the Government’s aim, outlined in last week’s Summer Economic...
Weak Q2 housing result driven by volatile apartments
Housing supply for Q2 was just 8.8k, well below our forecast for 11.2k. Volatile apartments explained all of this, with our forecast for 6.2k houses matching the result. We had previously...
A smaller Budget 2027 to target improved spending efficiency
Despite Ireland’s strong fiscal position, the Summer Economic Statement included a surprisingly modest €8.5bn headline amount for Budget 2027. This was in line with December’s exchequer...
Energy prices help inflation to moderate further in June
Headline inflation moderated to 2.6% for the UK in June, well below 3.1% last forecast by the Bank of England (BoE). Lower energy prices benefitted from last month’s ceasefire, though...
Revisions imply downside risks to 2026 UK GDP growth
This morning’s UK GDP revisions show an unchanged pace of quarterly growth in Q1 2026, but downward revisions to Q3 and Q4 2025 mean a lower annual pace of 0.9% to begin this year....
Bank Rate held at 3.75% with little update to forward guidance
Despite this week’s deal between Iran and the US, rate setters at the Bank of England (BoE) are content to retain a wait-and-see outlook before committing firmly to any change in...
Another dovish inflation result in May undershoots forecasts
May’s undershoot for UK inflation supports our view early last month that the Bank of England (BoE) should not increase Bank Rate this year. Relative to its latest (April) projection,...
