Economic
Reeves poised to deliver another tough UK Budget
Aside from further catch-up US releases this week, the UK Budget is the main focus in an otherwise quieter week for new economic data. Weaker retail sales in October have been...
Payroll revisions continue to trend negatively
Total non-farm employment in the US went up by 119k in September following a 4k decline (revised down from a 22k increase) in August. This continues a recent pattern of negative...
Residential property prices on course to grow by 7.5% in 2025
Ireland’s residential property prices grew 7.6% in September, and strong momentum is evident across house/apartment and different geographical areas. With three quarters of this year...
Robust Irish payrolls growth in Q3 despite higher jobless rate
A busy week ahead will include belated US payrolls data for September, UK consumer prices and retail sales for October, and Ireland’s residential property prices, goods exports and...
Q3 survey-based employment at odds with hard-data payrolls
The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed a marked slowdown in employment growth to 1.1% compared to Q3 2024. This is somewhat below our latest forecast and chimes with other...
A slowdown in economic growth into autumn is evident
October’s exchequer returns were once again characterised by strong corporation taxes and weaker tax receipts elsewhere, albeit income tax recovered somewhat from an especially...
Flat transactions for new properties in July
Strong summer price trends continued in July, and we expect upward revisions to June could repeat. However, new property transactions were surprisingly weak in July; if this continues,...
Record employment in Q2 despite tariffs uncertainty
Despite widespread fears that tariff-driven uncertainty would lead to a notably weaker Irish economy, Q2 saw a record level of employment above 2.8m for the first time. The...
Below-consensus inflation in September
While UK consumer price inflation remained high last month, it was softer than expected across a broad range of goods and services. This follows last week’s labour market data which...
UK economy tracking quite well despite Budget worries
Early Q3 indications point to a more resilient UK economy compared to last year, when Budget worries dragged activity lower. The government’s supply-side reforms could help to avoid...
Household spending adds to stronger UK economic growth
The UK economy grew faster than expected in H1, helped by household spending and business investment. However, despite a favourable productivity performance, official forecast...
UK inflation meets consensus in August
Headline UK inflation was unchanged in August, remaining at a year-on-year (yoy) increase of 3.8% and increasing in month-on-month (mom) terms by 0.3%. While core and services inflation...
