Economic

ECB gives mixed messages on transitory pick-up in inflation

Yesterday’s ECB decision to keep rates on hold and maintain the pace of asset purchases was expected, as was the dovish tone of the press conference. The ECB raised its forecast...

Unemployment claims decline as Irish economy re-opens

Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) claims data released yesterday (June 9th) provided an encouraging picture – another substantial weekly fall to 285,000 claims shows the relaxation...

First solid signs of recovery in Irish indigenous manufacturing

Yesterday’s (June 8th) Irish industrial production release showed that the rebound flagged by the PMI surveys is now showing up in the hard data. Traditional sector output rose by 9%...

G7 proposals will not dilute Ireland’s attractiveness for FDI

Ireland’s attractiveness for foreign direct investment (FDI) will remain even if the G7 finance ministers’ proposals on global tax reforms are implemented. A key point is that Ireland’s...

September’s exchequer returns point to smaller deficit in 2020

September’s exchequer returns show tax revenues remaining resilient and the growth in spending moderating, leaving our forecast for the 2020 deficit to equal €22bn (6.3% of GDP) on...

July’s exchequer returns a mixed bag

July’s exchequer returns were a mixed bag, showing tax revenues still relatively resilient, down 18.6% on the year, but outperforming the conservative assumptions in April’s Stability...

May exchequer returns beat gloomy expectations

May’s exchequer returns were far better than expected, with tax revenues €2bn ahead of official projections, mainly reflecting buoyant corporation taxes. However, resilient income...

March exchequer returns show €2bn hit from COVID-19 measures

Today’s exchequer returns show a €2bn hit from COVID-19 on the public finances in March through extra health spending and social welfare payments and a fall in VAT receipts. The 50%...

UK public borrowing still £32bn in April

This morning’s UK public finance data show that borrowing was still £32bn in April, or 1.5% of GDP in just one month. The figures should improve in the months ahead as the UK economy...

UK PMI surveys signal record pace of expansion

Friday’s UK PMI surveys reinforced our view that the UK economy is bouncing back faster than the current consensus expects and that GDP will grow by 6.7% in 2021. The bounce-back...

UK recovery will be driven by the consumer

Our new forecast for the UK economy is for a strong bounce back led by the consumer, with 6.7% GDP growth in 2021 and 5.7% in 2022, helped by the fiscal stimulus in March’s Budget....

New forecast for UK GDP to grow by 6.7% in 2021

Our new forecast is for UK GDP growth of 6.7% in 2021 and 5.7% in 2022, above the current consensus, reflecting the latest data showing a very sharp bounce-back in activity in Q2...