Economic, Debt & Credit

Despite political turmoil, prospect of ‘no-deal’ Brexit receding

Events in recent days have reinforced our view that a ‘no-deal’ Brexit is highly unlikely and that the status quo will ultimately be maintained – either through the transition period in...

Ireland on track for first budget surplus in a decade

Ireland looks set to run a budget surplus in 2018 for the first time in a decade. November’s exchequer returns showed a surge in corporate tax revenues, now likely to exceed €10bn in...

Ireland outperforms slowdown in European manufacturing

Equity markets made significant gains on Monday on the back of thawing US/China trade tensions. US Treasury yields also declined as Fed Vice-Chair Clarida voiced concerns on...

Value of mortgage approvals increases by 11% in October

The rebound in October’s mortgage approvals, up 11.4% in value terms and 13.6% in volume terms, suggests that the squeeze associated with the Central Bank of Ireland’s (CBI’s)...

Irish residential property prices rise by a solid 0.7% in September

Today’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) data show prices up a solid 0.7% in September, with annual inflation slowing to 8.2%. Prices in Dublin rose by 0.4% on the month, up 5.8% on...

Irish housing completions rise by 23% in year to Q3 2018

This morning’s CSO data show that there were 4,673 housing completions in Q3 2018, up 23% on the year. Total homebuilding looks set to exceed 18,000 in calendar year 2018 – especially...

Exchequer returns broadly in line with expectations

The highlight of today's exchequer returns for October was an extra €773m of corporation tax receipts, vis-a-vis last year's Budget targets. However, this outperformance had been...

Irish residential property price inflation slows to 8.6%

The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) inflation rate was 8.6% in August, down from 10% in July. In Dublin, RPPI inflation was 6.1% – half the 13% rate recorded in April. RPPI inflation...

Bank of England lays out the cost of Brexit

Yesterday (November 28th) the Bank of England set out the likely impact of Brexit on the UK economy — Theresa May’s deal would reduce UK GDP by 1-3% over ten years, but a no-deal...

UK government borrowing widens to three-year high in October

October’s data showed a sharp deterioration in UK public borrowing with the deficit equalling £8.8bn, the widest monthly figure for three years. The culprit was a sharp 6% rise in...

Brexit: the status quo or chaos

Sterling remains at 88.8p this morning, gaining little despite the likelihood of a confidence vote in Theresa May receding. The focus will now move to Sunday’s EU summit to sign off the...

Lukewarm reaction to UK Cabinet approval of Brexit deal

Sterling gained little after the news that Theresa May had secured 'collective' approval for her Brexit deal, reflecting the view that the key challenge will be pushing the withdrawal bill...