Economic
Exchequer assets €25bn above official forecasts since 2018
As a key driver of likely debt issuance in future, official forecasts of the exchequer balance are an important signal for bond markets. In tandem with outperformance over the last...
Growth is still likely to exceed the latest official projections
The latest macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts by the Department of Finance remain aligned to the consensus view of slower increases in employment and economic activity. We think...
Ireland’s budget surplus is likely to exceed Budget 2026’s €5bn
The main economic news of note this week relates to the UK economy, where key updates will cover the labour market, consumer prices, government borrowing and retail sales. Higher...
A stronger labour market early in 2026 as payrolls revised up
February payrolls data were in line with our view that the labour market remained in good shape early in 2026, and from here we think it is likely to remain resilient into the summer...
Resilient Irish economy in March despite high global uncertainty
The latest exchequer returns for March and card payments data for February align with our view that the Irish economy began 2026 in good shape. We think an inflation boost to tax...
Jobs growth of about 2.5% in December and January
We continue to look through November’s surprisingly weak payrolls result and note that December and January payrolls, with typical revisions factored in, grew by about 2.5% in annual...
Q4 national accounts show strong economic growth in 2025
The quarterly national accounts for Q4 2025 are consistent with our long-standing view that the Irish economy remains in a high-growth phase, despite high global uncertainty. Consumer...
Labour market remains robust based on latest exchequer data
February’s exchequer returns showed a strong rebound in non-corporation tax growth, driven by income tax, albeit this came after a soft result in January. However, we point to new...
Inflation meets consensus in March before likely falls in April
UK consumer price inflation (CPI) was in line with consensus for March, and slightly below consensus for core inflation. While services inflation remains higher than the Bank of England...
UK economic growth far above expectations in February
UK gross domestic product (GDP) was far stronger than expected in February. While some elements of the results look noisy, especially construction which jumped 1% on the month despite...
Services inflation in February came in above expectations
This morning’s UK inflation result for February was always likely to be discounted by markets given it reflects the economy prior to the ongoing Middle East conflict. However, the...
More rate cuts likely after the UK economy weakened in Q4
This morning’s GDP data for the UK paint a similar picture to the prior year, with growth in the first half considerably stronger than in the second half of the year. The Q4 result was...
