Economic, Debt & Credit

Irish residential property price inflation slows to 2%

Yesterday’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for June showed a modest 0.4% monthly gain, with annual inflation slowing to 2%. The annual rate now looks set to slow further and...

Residential property price inflation figures for June due today

We still expect a mid-single-digit gain in Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) inflation close to 3% in 2019 given movements in asking prices and fresh impetus in mortgage lending data....

Irish construction PMI falls to six-year low of 51.4

The Irish construction PMI fell to a six-year low of 51.4 in July, albeit with housing (55.9) and commercial activity (54.7) still expanding but civil engineering (40.5) contracting. This...

German bund yields fall to fresh record low

US equity markets rebounded on Tuesday (August 6th) as the People’s Bank of China fixed its target for the yuan/dollar exchange rate below 7, easing fears of trade tensions...

Corporation tax receipts bounce back in June

The key news in June’s exchequer returns was a strong performance from corporation taxes — June is a key month for revenue collection with €2.4bn received, 7.9% better than...

Exchequer returns disappoint in May

The big news in May was a large shortfall in corporate tax revenues, which could be a timing issue. Thankfully, Central Bank surplus income and spending inside generous government...

Irish employment surges in early 2019

Today’s Labour Force Survey indicates that employment rose by 1.5% in Q1 2019, up 3.7% on the year, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.6% in April. This is a far stronger pace than...

A poor April for public finances but still €42m ahead of Budget target

April was a poor month for tax revenues at 6% the monthly target, but on the back of volatile value added tax and corporation tax repayments that tell us little about underlying...

Will UK labour market continue to hold up?

This morning’s key release is UK labour market data for June, expected to show pay growth accelerating to 3.8% which should support sterling. Thus far, jobs growth has remained...

Any negative surprise in UK GDP data could raise recession fears

The likelihood of today’s UK GDP showing a contraction in the economy in Q2 2019 is on a knife-edge, resting on whether the resilient services sector can compensate for further...

Johnson’s threat to leave ‘do-or-die’ weighs on UK housing sentiment

This morning’s Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey indicates that the post March 29th bounce in UK housing market activity is coming to an end. The July readings...

UK concerns to the fore

Some ten days on from Prime Minister Boris Johnson being announced as the UK’s new leader, concerns about the country’s broader economic prospects remain to the fore. Yesterday’s...