Economic, Debt & Credit

NTMA outlines reduced funding requirement for 2020

The National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) funding statement indicates that it will issue €10-14bn of bonds in 2020, smaller than recent years, given buoyant cash balances and a...

Irish industrial production remains resilient despite Brexit uncertainty

Yesterday’s Irish industrial production data showed output down 0.1% on the month but up 5.4% on the year. So there is little sign that the slowdown signalled by the recent...

As expected, no change to Central Bank mortgage lending rules

As expected, the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) kept its mortgage lending rules unchanged yesterday (December 4th) following its annual review. However, as in 2018, we do not expect the...

Brexit bounce as Irish Services PMI rises sharply to 53.7 in November

Ireland’s PMI, business and consumer confidence surveys had deteriorated in the run-up to the October 31st Brexit deadline. Now that fears of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit have receded, these...

Budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP expected after buoyant tax returns

Given today’s buoyant exchequer returns, with corporate taxes €748m ahead of target, the Minister for Finance has revised up his forecast for a surplus of €1.4bn (0.4% of GDP) in...

Irish housing starts surge to 26,000, up 33% in Q3 2019

This morning’s Irish housing starts data have beaten all expectations, showing 7,596 commencements in Q3 2019 – up 33% on the year; the 2,648 in Dublin were up 27%. There have been...

Irish government set to beat its Budget surplus target for 2019

Although spending pressures should emerge in the final two months of 2019, we still believe today’s exchequer returns show the government on track to record a surplus well in excess...

Exchequer Returns show tax revenues up 12% on the year

Today’s exchequer returns show buoyant tax revenues, up 12% to €5.7bn, with income taxes, VAT and corporation taxes all up sharply on the year. Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe...

RICS survey shows Brexit still weighing on UK housing market

November’s Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey shows Brexit and the general election still stifling UK housing market activity. A majority of estate agents reported...

UK economy flatlines ahead of the general election

October’s monthly UK GDP data showed the economy flatlining, despite evidence of a temporary boost from stock building ahead of the Brexit deadline. With the Composite PMI at 49.3 in...

Irish Construction PMI sees modest bounce in November

November's Construction PMI gave mixed messages, with commercial activity (51.2) expanding again after the October 31st Brexit deadline but the residential (47.7) component inconsistent...

Late timing of ‘Black Friday’ distorts trends in BRC retail sales

At face value, this morning’s British Retail Consortium (BRC) sales figures – down 4.4% in November – suggest that UK household spending is rolling over. However, BRC indicated that once...

DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines

The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...

ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive

ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...