Economic
Catch-up prospects for Ireland’s infrastructure shortfall
As we expected, there was little change to Ireland’s underlying per-capita infrastructure shortfall last year, which we estimate remained at about 27% compared to high-income European...
Strong payrolls and inflation imply more US rate hikes ahead
The US economy is growing strongly, and a higher Federal Funds Rate is justified by a stronger labour market and above-target inflation. For the UK, an increase to Bank Rate last...
Net financial assets are up €434bn since 2013
Several data updates for the Irish economy this week reveal a continued benign backdrop for tax receipts, the labour market and Ireland’s financial balance sheet. Deleveraging by...
Core inflation down to 2.9%, but overall inflation picked up to 4%
Ireland’s core inflation moderated to 2.9% in annual terms last month, based on this morning’s flash harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) result. This was largely due to services...
The ‘Burnham Bounce’ continued in September
The UK economy remained resilient into September. The first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for Q3 is more than twice the forecast by the Office for Budget...
UK public finances are set to remain fragile
2026 has been characterised by upside surprises to the UK’s economic growth, and there is possible further scope for outperformance ahead thanks to a better productivity backdrop....
Declines for retail sales and consumer confidence
Retail sales fell in September compared to an upward-revised result in August, and October’s consumer confidence was also below consensus expectations. The summer months had seen...
Inflation up to 3.5%, but second-round effects remain absent
This morning’s UK inflation data are mildly hawkish, as were the labour market figures already published this week. However, the big picture remains that there is still very limited...
