Economic, Debt & Credit
European Commission expects Irish GDP to fall 8.5% in 2020
Yesterday (July 7th), the European Commission (EC) published a new set of gloomy forecasts for euro area GDP to contract by 8.7% in 2020 (versus 7.7% previously), reflecting the...
Irish jobless claims start to fall at sharper pace
The acceleration in falling jobless claimants is encouraging, showing the third phase of the re-opening of the economy feeding into job gains in hotels and food services. Meanwhile, the...
Another week of Brexit negotiations
EU/UK trade negotiations added to sterling’s volatility last week, with conciliatory comments from Michel Barnier helping sentiment. However, Ireland’s EU Commissioner Phil Hogan struck a...
Real-time data show debit/credit card spending back at pre-COVID level
The latest daily/weekly data on the Irish economy suggest it recovered over the past week, with the highlight being debit/credit card spending only 4% below levels in early March....
May exchequer returns beat gloomy expectations
May’s exchequer returns were far better than expected, with tax revenues €2bn ahead of official projections, mainly reflecting buoyant corporation taxes. However, resilient income...
March exchequer returns show €2bn hit from COVID-19 measures
Today’s exchequer returns show a €2bn hit from COVID-19 on the public finances in March through extra health spending and social welfare payments and a fall in VAT receipts. The 50%...
Budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP expected after buoyant tax returns
Given today’s buoyant exchequer returns, with corporate taxes €748m ahead of target, the Minister for Finance has revised up his forecast for a surplus of €1.4bn (0.4% of GDP) in...
Irish housing starts surge to 26,000, up 33% in Q3 2019
This morning’s Irish housing starts data have beaten all expectations, showing 7,596 commencements in Q3 2019 – up 33% on the year; the 2,648 in Dublin were up 27%. There have been...
Sunak plans £30bn stimulus but also end to furlough scheme
Rishi Sunak faces a difficult balancing act, announcing a further £30bn (1.4% of GDP) stimulus yesterday (July 8th) but insisting the job furlough scheme will end in October. Sunak will...
UK GDP contracts by 20% in April
The news this morning that UK GDP contracted by 20% in April isn’t quite at the most pessimistic end of expectations but will probably lead many forecasters to revise down their...
UK claimant count surges in April
Yesterday (May 18th) saw France and Germany outline their proposals for a new €500bn European Commission fund to provide grants to EU countries hit by COVID-19. This morning’s UK...
UK GDP contracts by 5.8% in March
The news that UK GDP fell by 5.8% in March was not as bad as the 8% decline expected, but still points to an unprecedented 20%+ fall in activity in April given the lockdown was imposed...
Opportunities in Irish bank credit
Following our recent look into Irish banks’ fundamentals, heading into the current COVID-19 crisis as well as assessing the likely near-term impact to credit losses, we refresh the...
NTMA to issue new 15-year bond
The NTMA has announced a new 15-year syndication as part of its €10-14bn funding range for 2020. This report sets out some recent key facts on the funding, fiscal metrics and Irish...
DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines
The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...
ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive
ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...
