Economic
Steady underlying growth in April despite more tax volatility
An unusual upside surprise to corporation tax last month could reflect early payment of top-up taxes due from the middle of this year given very few companies are typically liable in...
Consensus housing forecasts set to top 40k on strong Q1 data
Today’s result for Q1 housing output is encouraging. We expect the strong double-digit increase of 33% is likely to imply upgrades to the consensus outlook for housing delivery this...
April inflation could reach 4%
A busy week ahead sees central bank meetings take centre stage. We think an increase in euro area rates this year is more likely than for the Bank of England, where pay growth has...
Exchequer assets €25bn above official forecasts since 2018
As a key driver of likely debt issuance in future, official forecasts of the exchequer balance are an important signal for bond markets. In tandem with outperformance over the last...
Resilient Irish economy in March despite high global uncertainty
The latest exchequer returns for March and card payments data for February align with our view that the Irish economy began 2026 in good shape. We think an inflation boost to tax...
Jobs growth of about 2.5% in December and January
We continue to look through November’s surprisingly weak payrolls result and note that December and January payrolls, with typical revisions factored in, grew by about 2.5% in annual...
Q4 national accounts show strong economic growth in 2025
The quarterly national accounts for Q4 2025 are consistent with our long-standing view that the Irish economy remains in a high-growth phase, despite high global uncertainty. Consumer...
Labour market remains robust based on latest exchequer data
February’s exchequer returns showed a strong rebound in non-corporation tax growth, driven by income tax, albeit this came after a soft result in January. However, we point to new...
Escaping two lost decades
May 06 2026 07:00 IST/BST
Inflation meets consensus in March before likely falls in April
UK consumer price inflation (CPI) was in line with consensus for March, and slightly below consensus for core inflation. While services inflation remains higher than the Bank of England...
UK economic growth far above expectations in February
UK gross domestic product (GDP) was far stronger than expected in February. While some elements of the results look noisy, especially construction which jumped 1% on the month despite...
Services inflation in February came in above expectations
This morning’s UK inflation result for February was always likely to be discounted by markets given it reflects the economy prior to the ongoing Middle East conflict. However, the...
