Economic, Debt & Credit

Benoit Coeure pours cold water on prospect of deposit rate

Brent crude oil prices rose to $74.5 per barrel yesterday (April 22nd) after the Trump administration announced sanctions on Iranian oil. US GDP data are the key release this week,...

German government revises 2019 GDP forecast to just 0.5%

Equity markets were flat yesterday (April 17th) despite positive news on the Chinese economy. Meanwhile, UK CPI inflation remained at 1.9%, staying below the Bank of England’s 2% target...

ECB rumour mill weighs on the euro

Yesterday (April 16th) saw the euro under pressure after Bloomberg and Reuters reports indicated that the ECB is unlikely to adopt a tiering policy on its negative deposit rate....

Deloitte CFO surveys paint bleak picture of UK economic prospects

Equity markets were little changed on Monday (April 15th), with disappointing banks’ results offsetting progress in US/China trade talks. Meanwhile, the Q1 2019 Deloitte CFO survey...

Public finances €460m ahead of target in the first quarter

Exchequer returns for Q1 2019 show the public finances €461m ahead of Budget 2019 targets. This is consistent with our forecast for a surplus of €1bn, or 0.6% of GDP, in 2019. However,...

Mortgage approvals volumes down 5.7% in January

This morning’s mortgage approvals data are disappointing – €565m for house purchase, down 3.3% on the year (or by 5.7% in volume terms). The only part of the market seeing growth is...

Tax revenues up 3.7% in first two months of 2019

Today’s exchequer returns show tax revenues up 3.7% in January and February, indicative of buoyant growth – if a little behind Budget targets. However, it is too early in the year to...

January’s exchequer returns show healthy start to 2019

January’s exchequer returns showed a healthy start to 2019, buoyant tax receipts, up 7% or €351m, still beating Budget targets and indicating economic activity remained strong at the...

UK Rightmove asking prices bounce back in April

With US/China trade tensions the key focus of the IMF’s spring meetings, Friday’s data (April 12th) showed Chinese exports rising by 21% on the month, easing fears on the health of...

Six-month Article 50 extension will do little to lift Brexit uncertainties

Markets have given a muted reaction to the news that the EU has granted a disappointing, shorter-than-expected six-month Article 50 extension to the UK. This means a bounce-back in...

Our new forecast for 5% Irish GDP growth in 2019

We have revised down our forecast for GDP growth to 5% in 2019 (versus 5.6% previously) and expect 4% in 2020. This reflects softer GDP and employment growth at end-2018. However,...

May abandons her red lines

Overnight Theresa May appears to have abandoned her red lines, seeking talks with Jeremy Corbyn for a ‘unified approach’ that will secure Labour support and conceding that the UK...