Economic
Consumer prices data for December in focus this week
The main data releases of note this week are consumer prices for December. UK services inflation continues to be important for the Bank of England’s scope for cutting bank rate, and...
December exchequer returns in focus this week
The first full week of the new year begins today with December’s exchequer returns. Other notable data releases this week include flash inflation for the Euro area and US labour...
UK growth weakens into 2025
Interest rate decisions in the US and the UK are the main event this week. The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25bps, while the Bank of England is set to keep rates...
New forecasts: strong economic growth set to continue despite downside risks
We are updating our economic forecasts for 2025 and extending the horizon out to 2026. Available details for this year indicate that growth momentum has picked up, helped by rising...
Expansionary Budgets add to a strong economy in 2024
The December Exchequer returns suggest strong economic activity in 2024, boosted by successive expansionary Budgets. Voted current and capital spending each grew faster than...
Transactions for new homes climb 26% in October
Residential property prices grew 9.7% in October, close to the double-digit rates seen in recent months. However, rapid increases in Q4 last year mean some reduction in headline growth...
Ireland’s Exchequer begins to receive back-taxes from Apple
While October is not a crucial month for the Irish Exchequer, volatility of recent years continued with a near-trebling of corporation tax. This was driven by the first arrival to the...
Revising down our housing completions forecast for 2024
Despite an improvement on H1 2024, this morning’s update for housing completions in Q3 marks an inopportune pre-election result for the government. Output over the past four quarters...
Invest, invest, invest: Labour’s plan to restore UK growth
Labour’s first Budget since 2010 was delivered this afternoon by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Higher investment has been facilitated by a new fiscal rule targeting a broader measure of...
Grounds for optimism about the UK economy in H2 2024
The UK economy was flat in June and grew 0.6% in Q2, in line with consensus forecasts. However, we believe there are grounds for optimism heading into the second half of the year....
UK services inflation slows in July
UK inflation was lower than expected in July, driven by slower services inflation, which grew 5.2% in year-on-year (yoy) terms. This supports the view that disinflation is progressing and...
Services inflation stays high at 5.7% in June
UK consumer price inflation (CPI) grew 2% year-on-year (yoy) in June. Services inflation has been in focus ahead of the Bank of England’s next monetary policy meeting on August 1st....
