Economic, Debt & Credit

CSO data confirm multinationals drove positive GDP growth

Yesterday’s (January 12th) CSO data confirmed Ireland’s positive 3.8% GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2020 was driven by a 20% expansion in multinational sector output but...

Irish welfare claimants show negative impact of third lockdown

The news that Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) claimants have moved sharply up to 398,000, implying a COVID-19 adjusted unemployment rate of 22.9% and now above November’s peak,...

Irish Construction PMI for December paints upbeat picture

This morning’s Construction PMI at 52.3 indicates conditions were relatively upbeat in December, with orders and employment up sharply and sentiment improving, especially in the...

Second COVID-19 lockdown had smaller impact on GDP

The Services Output Index was down 8% in November, confirming that the second lockdown had a far smaller impact than in April/May. This means that Irish GDP probably fell by 1-1.5% in Q4...

September’s exchequer returns point to smaller deficit in 2020

September’s exchequer returns show tax revenues remaining resilient and the growth in spending moderating, leaving our forecast for the 2020 deficit to equal €22bn (6.3% of GDP) on...

July’s exchequer returns a mixed bag

July’s exchequer returns were a mixed bag, showing tax revenues still relatively resilient, down 18.6% on the year, but outperforming the conservative assumptions in April’s Stability...

May exchequer returns beat gloomy expectations

May’s exchequer returns were far better than expected, with tax revenues €2bn ahead of official projections, mainly reflecting buoyant corporation taxes. However, resilient income...

March exchequer returns show €2bn hit from COVID-19 measures

Today’s exchequer returns show a €2bn hit from COVID-19 on the public finances in March through extra health spending and social welfare payments and a fall in VAT receipts. The 50%...

UK estate agents now expect house prices to fall in early 2021

This morning’s Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey shows UK estate agents increasingly worried that current high rates of house price inflation and activity cannot...

Bank of England cautious as consumer sentiment rebounds

This morning’s UK GfK Consumer Confidence survey and November retail sales data paint a more upbeat picture for household spending in 2021. Nonetheless, yesterday’s Bank of England...

Another Brexit deadline comes and goes

On Friday (December 11th), Boris Johnson insisted that the demand the UK remains aligned with the EU, accepting level playing field provisions into the future, was an outrageous...

UK alleges EU side has toughened stance in Brexit talks

Complaints from the UK this morning that the EU side has toughened its stance in the Brexit talks are hard to credit and could simply be a negotiating tactic. The EU has consistently...

Opportunities in Irish bank credit

Following our recent look into Irish banks’ fundamentals, heading into the current COVID-19 crisis as well as assessing the likely near-term impact to credit losses, we refresh the...

NTMA to issue new 15-year bond

The NTMA has announced a new 15-year syndication as part of its €10-14bn funding range for 2020. This report sets out some recent key facts on the funding, fiscal metrics and Irish...

DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines

The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...

ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive

ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...