Economic

Fed set to send cautious signal on tapering

Fed Chair Jay Powell faces a difficult communications challenge today, especially with President Joe Biden considering his reappointment. Recent softer US data point to a cautious...

Irish residential property price inflation accelerates in July

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has reported that residential property prices increased by 8.6% year-on-year (yoy) in Ireland during July. This continues the recent trend of...

Dáil return to refocus minds on priorities

The Dáil (Irish Parliament) returns today, with a vote of no confidence in a senior minister kicking off proceedings. Barring a major surprise, the government will win. Several key policy...

Capital debate important for EU banking sector

The implementation of Basel 3, which commenced post the Global Financial Crisis, is now nearing conclusion. Banks are seeking an easing of some new rules while regulators want full...

September’s exchequer returns point to smaller deficit in 2020

September’s exchequer returns show tax revenues remaining resilient and the growth in spending moderating, leaving our forecast for the 2020 deficit to equal €22bn (6.3% of GDP) on...

July’s exchequer returns a mixed bag

July’s exchequer returns were a mixed bag, showing tax revenues still relatively resilient, down 18.6% on the year, but outperforming the conservative assumptions in April’s Stability...

May exchequer returns beat gloomy expectations

May’s exchequer returns were far better than expected, with tax revenues €2bn ahead of official projections, mainly reflecting buoyant corporation taxes. However, resilient income...

March exchequer returns show €2bn hit from COVID-19 measures

Today’s exchequer returns show a €2bn hit from COVID-19 on the public finances in March through extra health spending and social welfare payments and a fall in VAT receipts. The 50%...

UK fiscal stance could soon prove to be drag on growth

This morning’s UK public sector finances show borrowing was £20.5bn in August, almost 1% of GDP in just one month. Although, borrowing in the first half of the budget year 2021/22 is...

Rightmove data point to cooling UK house prices

This morning’s Rightmove data point to UK house price inflation cooling off – asking prices were flat over the past two months and there was a 14% rise in the number of properties...

Divergence in US and UK retail sales

US consumer spending is proving more resilient than expected, with retail sales +0.7% in August, reversing July’s 1.8% decline. UK retail sales, in contrast, declined 0.9% in August (0.5%...

PMI surveys show capacity pressures limiting pace of recovery

Yesterday’s flash UK composite PMI for August at 55.3 suggests that GDP growth in Q3 2021 may fall short of the 1.8% we had forecast, instead likely to be in the 0.5-1.0% range....