Economic
Current spending is the clear priority in €10.5bn Budget 2025
The government today announced plans to deliver large increases in current spending. With an election due within five months, it is unsurprising that these plans are frontloaded to this...
€25bn surplus expected ahead of Budget 2025
All indications suggest Tuesday’s Budget will be well in excess of July’s plan. Booming corporation taxes and back-taxes from Apple are funding this broad expansionary policy at a time...
Build-up week to Budget 2025
From a focus on international central banks last week, Ireland’s pre-election Budget 2025 is fast approaching on October 1st. We now expect an overall fiscal package of close to €10bn,...
Home prices accelerate further in July
In keeping with June’s findings, this morning’s update showed further acceleration in home prices in July. Strong buyer demand continues to be driven by Ireland’s healthy economic...
Tax receipts continue to signal rapid economic growth
September’s tax receipts continue to support our view that the economy is on course to grow by at least 4.5% this year. However, the expansionary nature of Budget 2025 and higher...
Irish residential property prices rise for the first time in six months
Yesterday’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for June rose by 0.6%, the first gain since December after five consecutive months of decline. Prices rose by 0.3% in Dublin, breaking...
Irish Construction PMI falls to 45.6 in July
This morning’s Irish Construction PMI at 45.6 in July, signalling a fresh contraction after stability in June, is surprising. The readings are not consistent with the recent pick-up in...
Residential property price and mortgage approvals data point to resilient Irish housing market
Taken together, this morning’s Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) mortgage approvals data and yesterday’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) point to the resilience of...
Grounds for optimism about the UK economy in H2 2024
The UK economy was flat in June and grew 0.6% in Q2, in line with consensus forecasts. However, we believe there are grounds for optimism heading into the second half of the year....
UK services inflation slows in July
UK inflation was lower than expected in July, driven by slower services inflation, which grew 5.2% in year-on-year (yoy) terms. This supports the view that disinflation is progressing and...
Services inflation stays high at 5.7% in June
UK consumer price inflation (CPI) grew 2% year-on-year (yoy) in June. Services inflation has been in focus ahead of the Bank of England’s next monetary policy meeting on August 1st....
UK GDP beats expectations for May
UK GDP bounced back from a weaker April, with month-on-month (mom) growth of 0.4% in May. This was double the consensus expectation for growth of 0.2%. At face value, there is no...
