Economic

Irish retail sales flat in May

Irish retail sales were flat in May but followed a 4% gain in April and are up 3.5% over the past three months. It is still too early to gauge if a marked slowdown in consumer spending is...

Irish mortgage approvals rise to €1.5bn in May

Irish mortgage approvals hit a fresh cyclical high of €1.5bn in May, up 25% on the year. However, this was mainly driven by the prospect of ECB rate hikes, with approvals for...

Irish business and consumer confidence slip in June

This morning’s Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse survey shows business and consumer confidence slipped in June. This perhaps isn’t surprising given the prospect of European Central Bank...

Asking price inflation slows to 10.9% in Q2 2022

This quarter’s MyHome report shows a slight moderation in asking price inflation to 10.9% in Q2 2022 from 12.3% in Q1. The out-turn is broadly in line with our forecast for a further...

September’s exchequer returns point to smaller deficit in 2020

September’s exchequer returns show tax revenues remaining resilient and the growth in spending moderating, leaving our forecast for the 2020 deficit to equal €22bn (6.3% of GDP) on...

July’s exchequer returns a mixed bag

July’s exchequer returns were a mixed bag, showing tax revenues still relatively resilient, down 18.6% on the year, but outperforming the conservative assumptions in April’s Stability...

May exchequer returns beat gloomy expectations

May’s exchequer returns were far better than expected, with tax revenues €2bn ahead of official projections, mainly reflecting buoyant corporation taxes. However, resilient income...

March exchequer returns show €2bn hit from COVID-19 measures

Today’s exchequer returns show a €2bn hit from COVID-19 on the public finances in March through extra health spending and social welfare payments and a fall in VAT receipts. The 50%...

Bank of England could surprise with 50bps hike

Markets have taken a surprisingly benign view that the Bank of England (BOE) will stick to another 25bps hike to 1.25% when the June policy meeting concludes tomorrow – pricing in little...

UK GDP contracts by 0.3% in April

This morning’s UK GDP data showing a 0.3% contraction in April is entirely accounted for by the end of the NHS’s test-and-trace activity. However, with both construction (-0.4%) and...

RICS survey points to softening UK housing market

This morning’s Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey points to a definite softening of conditions in the UK housing market in May, but not a rapid deterioration. This...

Last innings for the UK housing market?

This morning’s UK Rightmove asking price data show another enormous 2.1% rise in May to £367,500 with annual inflation at 10.2%. However, Rightmove did warn that UK house price inflation...