Economic, Debt & Credit

Irish house price inflation accelerates in November

Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) inflation rose to 1.4% in November, accelerating for the first time since early 2018, and it should pick up further in the coming months. So, our...

Irish general election called for February 8th

Ireland's next general election will be on February 8th, with Fine Gael struggling in the polls – albeit perhaps in a better position now that Northern Ireland power institutions have been...

Irish house price inflation should trough soon

We believe Irish residential property price inflation will soon trough as sharp price declines in late 2018 fall out of the annual comparison. This view reflects the small rise in asking...

Revising up our forecast for Irish GDP growth to 5.5%

We have today published our new Irish economic forecasts, revising up our projection for GDP...

Budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP expected after buoyant tax returns

Given today’s buoyant exchequer returns, with corporate taxes €748m ahead of target, the Minister for Finance has revised up his forecast for a surplus of €1.4bn (0.4% of GDP) in...

Irish housing starts surge to 26,000, up 33% in Q3 2019

This morning’s Irish housing starts data have beaten all expectations, showing 7,596 commencements in Q3 2019 – up 33% on the year; the 2,648 in Dublin were up 27%. There have been...

Irish government set to beat its Budget surplus target for 2019

Although spending pressures should emerge in the final two months of 2019, we still believe today’s exchequer returns show the government on track to record a surplus well in excess...

Exchequer Returns show tax revenues up 12% on the year

Today’s exchequer returns show buoyant tax revenues, up 12% to €5.7bn, with income taxes, VAT and corporation taxes all up sharply on the year. Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe...

Bank of England moving towards a rate cut

Following dovish comments from several Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members and yesterday’s poor UK GDP data, markets are now pricing in a Bank of England rate cut in January with...

UK Services PMI points to pick-up in activity in 2020

Although still at the 50 no-change level, yesterday’s (January 6th) UK Services PMI indicated that activity may pick up in 2020, with business confidence rising to its strongest level in...

Bank of England minutes rule out near-term rate cut

Yesterday’s poor UK retail sales data were polluted by timing effects from ‘Black Friday’ sales. Therefore, the 0.6% decline in November, with annual growth slowing to 1%, is misleading....

UK labour market still shrugging off Brexit uncertainty

Yesterday’s UK labour market figures once again beat expectations, showing employment up 1% in the year to October, resilient despite the gloomy message from Monday’s PMI surveys....

NTMA to issue new 15-year bond

The NTMA has announced a new 15-year syndication as part of its €10-14bn funding range for 2020. This report sets out some recent key facts on the funding, fiscal metrics and Irish...

DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines

The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...

ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive

ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...