Economic, Debt & Credit

PEPP expansion could lead to €8bn of purchases of Irish debt

Falling equity markets yesterday highlighted the threat a second lockdown poses to the ECB’s GDP growth and inflation forecasts. Hence, Christine Lagarde will likely signal today that...

Surging jobless claims push unemployment rate to 18%

Yesterday’s data on Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) claimants showed a 51,700 surge over the past week to 295,900 in total – suggesting the unemployment rate has increased by...

Mortgage approvals in September up 35% on the year

This morning’s Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) data show €2bn of mortgage loans in Q3, ahead of expectations. Mortgage approvals were €1.1bn in September, up 35% on the...

Irish consumer confidence tumbles in October

The ESRI/KBC measure of Irish consumer confidence tumbled in October, back close to its May level during the last lockdown. The fall was concentrated in households’ expectations,...

September’s exchequer returns point to smaller deficit in 2020

September’s exchequer returns show tax revenues remaining resilient and the growth in spending moderating, leaving our forecast for the 2020 deficit to equal €22bn (6.3% of GDP) on...

July’s exchequer returns a mixed bag

July’s exchequer returns were a mixed bag, showing tax revenues still relatively resilient, down 18.6% on the year, but outperforming the conservative assumptions in April’s Stability...

May exchequer returns beat gloomy expectations

May’s exchequer returns were far better than expected, with tax revenues €2bn ahead of official projections, mainly reflecting buoyant corporation taxes. However, resilient income...

March exchequer returns show €2bn hit from COVID-19 measures

Today’s exchequer returns show a €2bn hit from COVID-19 on the public finances in March through extra health spending and social welfare payments and a fall in VAT receipts. The 50%...

Brexit negotiations approach key EU Council meeting

The EU Council meeting on October 15/16 this week will be a key moment in the Brexit negotiations, with reports suggesting that leaders have hardened their position on dispute resolution...

Bailey pours cold water on negative rates speculation

In August, the Bank of England signalled that negative rates would be an ineffective tool, particularly during the COVID-19 crisis. So it wasn’t too surprising yesterday to see Governor...

UK asking price inflation accelerates to 5%

Given that Rightmove asking price inflation is now 5% and sales volumes are estimated to be currently up 40% on last year, there’s no doubt the UK housing market rebound has beaten...

UK house price inflation accelerates to 3.7%

This morning’s Nationwide house price index, up 2% on the month and with annual inflation running at 3.7%, adds to the evidence that pent-up demand and Rishi Sunak’s stamp duty holiday...

Opportunities in Irish bank credit

Following our recent look into Irish banks’ fundamentals, heading into the current COVID-19 crisis as well as assessing the likely near-term impact to credit losses, we refresh the...

NTMA to issue new 15-year bond

The NTMA has announced a new 15-year syndication as part of its €10-14bn funding range for 2020. This report sets out some recent key facts on the funding, fiscal metrics and Irish...

DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines

The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...

ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive

ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...