Economic Debt & Credit Research
New Irish economic forecasts
We expect Irish GDP growth of 5% in 2017, revised up from 3.7%. GDP growth in 2016 was stronger than expected and artificially depressed by a €20bn import of intellectual property...
Revising up our forecasts for Irish mortgage market as lending surges in Q1 2017
New Banking and Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) data show mortgage lending of €1.4bn in Q1 2017, up 39% on the year. Mortgage approvals in March rose to a fresh record high of...
Irish economy: labour market recovery has further to run
The recent sharp decline in the unemployment rate to 6.6% begs the question of how much further the recovery has left to run. We think there is still plenty of slack in the labour...
Eurozone and UK: prospects diverge in post-Brexit Europe
In our January issue of Davy Economics Monthly, we highlight the diverging outlook for the eurozone and UK economies in 2017. Concerns around political events – namely, elections in...
Irish economy Irish residential property price inflation accelerates to 10.5%
The Irish residential property price index (RPPI) rose by a sharp 1.1% in April. This means that annual RPPI inflation is now running at 10.5%, accelerating from 9.6% in March. This is the... ...
Irish Economy Irish unemployment steady at 6.4% in May
Unemployment data, released to-day (May 30th), show the rate steady at 6.4% in May. Total numbers unemployed continued to decline, down 1,200 on the month and by 42,800 on the year... ...
Irish Economy Strong growth in retail sales in April
Today’s retail sales data show that the robust growth in Irish consumer spending has been maintained in Q2 2017. Retail sales (ex-motor trades) volumes rose by 0.4% in April, up 6.4% on... ...
Irish Economy Irish earnings growth accelerates to 1.4%
Today’s earnings data show wages up 1.4% in the year to Q1, ahead of the current CPI inflation rate of 0.9%. In the private sector, earnings growth was 1.5%, led by administration and... ...
Budget 2017 plots a cautious path
Today’s UK Spring Budget provided very few headlines. The government’s fiscal position is expected to be broadly unchanged in 2022, leaving the Chancellor little wiggle room within his...
UK construction sector set for weak 2017
Outside of housebuilding, the UK construction sector in 2016 had one of its worst years since the recession with output expanding by just 1.6% compared to a 3.6% gain in 2015. We...
New UK economy forecasts
We have revised up our forecasts for UK GDP growth to 1.5% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018, close to the current consensus. The big picture is that the UK economy will see GDP growth below...
Council of Mortgage Lenders revises down projections for UK mortgage market
Yesterday (December 15th), the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) revised down its projections for UK mortgage lending in 2017 by 5% to £248bn. This represents marginal growth from...