Economic
Weaker Q2 growth is likely due to fuel and traffic disruptions
Ongoing traffic and fuel disruptions in Ireland over the past week appear certain to reduce economic growth in the second quarter, despite the Government trebling its package of...
A focus on euro area inflation signals in March
This week’s March inflation data for the euro area will be watched closely for preliminary impacts of the ongoing war in the Middle East. Late last week, Spain’s inflation picked up to...
Flash business surveys for March due this week
With the war in Iran ongoing, this week’s flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) results for March will be a focus of attention as they are expected to show weaker business activity...
Population and housing up early in 2026 while exports remain flat
We highlight three early-2026 data releases covering Ireland’s continued population growth, an increase in new housing commencements and a subdued start to the year for goods...
Resilient Irish economy in March despite high global uncertainty
The latest exchequer returns for March and card payments data for February align with our view that the Irish economy began 2026 in good shape. We think an inflation boost to tax...
Jobs growth of about 2.5% in December and January
We continue to look through November’s surprisingly weak payrolls result and note that December and January payrolls, with typical revisions factored in, grew by about 2.5% in annual...
Q4 national accounts show strong economic growth in 2025
The quarterly national accounts for Q4 2025 are consistent with our long-standing view that the Irish economy remains in a high-growth phase, despite high global uncertainty. Consumer...
Labour market remains robust based on latest exchequer data
February’s exchequer returns showed a strong rebound in non-corporation tax growth, driven by income tax, albeit this came after a soft result in January. However, we point to new...
Services inflation in February came in above expectations
This morning’s UK inflation result for February was always likely to be discounted by markets given it reflects the economy prior to the ongoing Middle East conflict. However, the...
More rate cuts likely after the UK economy weakened in Q4
This morning’s GDP data for the UK paint a similar picture to the prior year, with growth in the first half considerably stronger than in the second half of the year. The Q4 result was...
UK inflation lands well below consensus in November
Annual UK inflation fell well below consensus expectations in November, reaching 3.2% compared to a 3.5% consensus figure. The declines were quite broadly based, and core inflation also...
Budget doubles fiscal headroom with backloaded fiscal drag
As expected, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered another difficult UK Budget. However, the details of the Budget were unexpectedly leaked prior to her speech. Nonetheless, the UK bond...
