Economic, Debt & Credit

Irish government to publish Summer Economic Statement

The Irish government publishes its Summer Economic Statement (SES) today, the first step in framing October’s Budget for 2020. The statement will likely show that €2.8bn of spending...

Irish consumer confidence rises again in June

The most striking feature of June’s Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse survey is another rise in consumer confidence — to its highest level since October — with business confidence flat on...

Draghi delivers clear signal that ECB will loosen policy

Equity markets made significant gains on Tuesday as ECB President Mario Draghi signalled that further stimulus is needed. The attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s June policy...

Markets looking ahead to Federal Reserve policy meeting

Markets were quiet on Monday ahead of this week’s Fed policy meeting. However, with the curve pricing in two 25 basis point rate cuts by December 2019 with an 85% probability, it seems...

Exchequer returns disappoint in May

The big news in May was a large shortfall in corporate tax revenues, which could be a timing issue. Thankfully, Central Bank surplus income and spending inside generous government...

Irish employment surges in early 2019

Today’s Labour Force Survey indicates that employment rose by 1.5% in Q1 2019, up 3.7% on the year, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.6% in April. This is a far stronger pace than...

A poor April for public finances but still €42m ahead of Budget target

April was a poor month for tax revenues at 6% the monthly target, but on the back of volatile value added tax and corporation tax repayments that tell us little about underlying...

Public finances €460m ahead of target in the first quarter

Exchequer returns for Q1 2019 show the public finances €461m ahead of Budget 2019 targets. This is consistent with our forecast for a surplus of €1bn, or 0.6% of GDP, in 2019. However,...

Bank of England holds with dovish statement

To nobody’s surprise, the Bank of England yesterday (June 20th) kept rates on hold, but the Monetary Policy Committee’s statement struck a more dovish tone – expecting GDP growth...

Market pricing in aggressive rate cutting cycle from the Fed

US 10-year yields fell below 2% for the first time since 2016 after last night’s Fed policy meeting statement was perceived as copper-fastening a rate cut in July. Despite the majority...

UK labour market data still confounding dour surveys

The equity market rally early this week petered out on Tuesday (June 11th) as investors’ focus returned to US/China tensions ahead of planned talks at this month’s G20 meetings on...

UK GDP contracts as Brexit hangover kicks in

The news that UK GDP fell by 0.4% in April, albeit largely reflecting an enormous 24% drop in vehicle production, raises the possibility that the economy may contract in the second...