Economic
Revised unemployment rate in Q4 points to faster jobs growth
This morning’s revisions to Q4 unemployment align with our view that the labour force survey has been more volatile than the actual employment situation. The pattern of the monthly...
Downside risks to our Q4 new home completions forecast
While some seasonal cooling of residential property prices is typical for November, the slowdown for Q4 so far is noteworthy given major ongoing supply constraints. A decline in...
Trump continues to “flood the zone” with instability
The current US administration’s approach is now firmly ‘America First’ away from long-held bilateral cooperation. Aside from a renewed increase in uncertainty, further EU rearmament...
Growth in payrolled employees fell back to about 2% into Q4
We have long noted the advantage of employee payrolls data over survey-based measures. That said, the data should be interpreted with an understanding that upward revisions are...
Taxes are still likely to exceed official forecasts this year
Exchequer returns for January showed a slowdown in core tax receipts. However, the 2025 results exceeded Budget 2026 forecasts, and tax receipts this year would now need to be...
Housing output jumped 20% last year, meeting our forecast
Completions came in ahead of consensus and in line with Davy forecasts after a very strong seasonal Q4. Our approach takes the commencements profile of houses and apartments...
Exchequer returns point to a strong economy into 2026
December’s exchequer returns saw another strong increase in corporation taxes, up €1bn on the same month last year. This is very similar to the increase seen in July and the results...
Entire 2025 surplus explained by November’s corporation tax
Exactly as we forecast five months ago, November’s corporation tax reached €10bn – equivalent to the entire projected surplus this year in last month’s Budget. Strong growth for...
UK inflation lands well below consensus in November
Annual UK inflation fell well below consensus expectations in November, reaching 3.2% compared to a 3.5% consensus figure. The declines were quite broadly based, and core inflation also...
Budget doubles fiscal headroom with backloaded fiscal drag
As expected, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered another difficult UK Budget. However, the details of the Budget were unexpectedly leaked prior to her speech. Nonetheless, the UK bond...
Below-consensus inflation in September
While UK consumer price inflation remained high last month, it was softer than expected across a broad range of goods and services. This follows last week’s labour market data which...
UK economy tracking quite well despite Budget worries
Early Q3 indications point to a more resilient UK economy compared to last year, when Budget worries dragged activity lower. The government’s supply-side reforms could help to avoid...
