Economic
Double-digit growth in housing output in Q3
As we saw in Q2, we are encouraged to see Q3 house completions very close to our forecast. While our apartments forecast was higher than the outcome, these are inherently volatile....
UK economy growing stronger than expected this year
The UK economy has been far stronger than we and consensus expected this year. Ahead of the Budget and Bank of England (BoE) meeting next week, a number of data releases this...
Forecasts for US government debt set to top 142% of GDP
As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings take place this week in Bangkok, we expect an upward revision to the US debt ratio. Despite hopes from President Trump that inflation...
Budget 2027 forecasts remain conservative
Many measures introduced in Budget 2027 will be popular with Irish households, including new tax-efficient savings and investment accounts. However, Budget forecasts remain conservative...
UK public finances are set to remain fragile
2026 has been characterised by upside surprises to the UK’s economic growth, and there is possible further scope for outperformance ahead thanks to a better productivity backdrop....
Declines for retail sales and consumer confidence
Retail sales fell in September compared to an upward-revised result in August, and October’s consumer confidence was also below consensus expectations. The summer months had seen...
Inflation up to 3.5%, but second-round effects remain absent
This morning’s UK inflation data are mildly hawkish, as were the labour market figures already published this week. However, the big picture remains that there is still very limited...
Bank of England holds and August retail sales improve
A busy week of UK economy news culminated in this morning’s retail sales result for August, which showed a reversal of July’s headline decline. While the UK economy could outperform...
