Economic, Debt & Credit

Ulster says no

A Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) statement this morning shows that it is still objecting to the EU/UK Brexit deal, mainly on ‘consent’ arrangements for Northern Ireland. With...

Draft Brexit deal possible this morning

As the final 11:00 deadline for EU/UK negotiations approaches, the Irish and UK governments seem hopeful that a draft deal can be found. Reports suggest that Boris Johnson has...

No white smoke makes Brexit deal this week unlikely

Reports overnight suggest that there is little likelihood of any Brexit deal being found this week, with attention more likely to turn to the Benn Act, requiring Boris Johnson to apply...

PMI signals first contraction in Irish construction since 2013

This morning’s Irish Construction PMI — 48.3 in September, down sharply from 53.7 in August — signals the first contraction in output since 2013, with Brexit uncertainty cited as the key...

Exchequer Returns show tax revenues up 12% on the year

Today’s exchequer returns show buoyant tax revenues, up 12% to €5.7bn, with income taxes, VAT and corporation taxes all up sharply on the year. Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe...

Exchequer returns reassure but Brexit is key for Budget 2020

August’s extra returns suggest that there might be a little more leeway in Budget 2020, with tax revenues €120m ahead of target and spending inside expenditure plans. However, the...

Corporation tax receipts bounce back in June

The key news in June’s exchequer returns was a strong performance from corporation taxes — June is a key month for revenue collection with €2.4bn received, 7.9% better than...

Exchequer returns disappoint in May

The big news in May was a large shortfall in corporate tax revenues, which could be a timing issue. Thankfully, Central Bank surplus income and spending inside generous government...

RICS survey paints bleak outlook for UK housing market

This morning’s RICS survey paints a bleak outlook for the UK housing market, with Brexit uncertainty leading to a sharp pullback in September in both new buyer enquiries and...

PMI surveys provide warning signs of UK recession

Yesterday’s (October 3rd) PMI and ISM surveys bolstered fears the global manufacturing slowdown is spreading into domestic demand in many countries. Equity markets rose as investors...

Johnson’s proposals are not a genuine attempt to find a deal

Boris Johnson’s proposals for an EU/UK withdrawal agreement do not appear to be a genuine initiative, involving customs checks close to the Northern Ireland border and set to be...

UK households starting to fear hard Brexit

The downturn in yesterday’s Markit UK Household Finance Index suggests that consumers are finally beginning to fear a hard Brexit. Appetite for major purchases fell to a five-year low...

ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive

ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...