Economic
MyHome Property Report, Q3 2023
This quarter’s MyHome report shows asking prices up a solid 0.6% in Q3 2023, with annual inflation accelerating to 4.1%. This is consistent with our view that 2023 would be a year of two...
Irish core retail sales volumes bounce back in August
Irish core retail sales bounced back by 2.3% in August after a 3.8% fall in July, which may in part have reflected the unusually poor weather reducing footfall. Hence, there are sharp...
Equity markets under pressure as investors price in official rates being ‘higher for longer’
Equity markets saw significant losses on Tuesday (September 26th) as investors continued to price in the Fed’s hawkish ‘higher-for-longer’ view on official rates. Also, a poor US...
Threat of recession pushes euro to weakest level since March
European equity markets and the euro struggled on Monday as concerns regarding the Chinese property and construction sectors grew and investors remained fearful of a fresh...
Irish residential property prices rise for the first time in six months
Yesterday’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for June rose by 0.6%, the first gain since December after five consecutive months of decline. Prices rose by 0.3% in Dublin, breaking...
Irish Construction PMI falls to 45.6 in July
This morning’s Irish Construction PMI at 45.6 in July, signalling a fresh contraction after stability in June, is surprising. The readings are not consistent with the recent pick-up in...
Residential property price and mortgage approvals data point to resilient Irish housing market
Taken together, this morning’s Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) mortgage approvals data and yesterday’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) point to the resilience of...
Irish Construction PMI points to activity improving in H2
This morning’s Irish Construction PMI at 49.4 in May is still below the 50 no-change level but suggests that activity will pick up in the coming months. New orders rose for a fourth...
UK PMI surveys point to recession in H2 2023
Last week’s flash UK composite PMI at 46.8 in September shows the clear risk of recession in H2 2023, on past form consistent with a 0.4% quarterly fall in GDP. Worryingly, the PMI...
Bank of England holds rates at 5.25%
Yesterday’s (September 21st) surprise decision to hold rates at 5.25% could well reflect that the Bank of England had seen a preview of today’s PMI surveys for September. Today’s...
UK CPI inflation shows surprise fall to 6.7% in August
Markets have pared back their bets that the Bank of England will raise interest rates tomorrow (September 21st), sterling is under pressure, following this morning’s CPI inflation data...
UK GDP contracts 0.5% in July
This morning's data showing that UK GDP contracted by 0.5% in July reverses the sharp 0.5% gain in June. Overall, the UK economy has effectively flatlined over the past three months....
