Economic, Debt & Credit

Irish residential property price inflation slows to 6.5%

Irish Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) inflation was 6.5% in December, broadly in line with our forecasts, with the slowdown concentrated in Dublin (3.8%) but the rest of Ireland...

German economy narrowly avoids technical recession in 2018

Equity markets rose on Wednesday (February 13th) on further optimism on US/China trade talks, but data this morning show the German economy narrowly escaped a technical recession in...

Overheard in a bar – Brexit to go down to the wire

Media report this morning that the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator has inadvertently disclosed that Theresa May’s strategy is to seek last minute concessions at the March 21st summit...

Irish Construction PMI falls to 54.6 in January

Equity markets were subdued on Friday (February 8th) on US/China trade tensions, with the clock now ticking down to the March 1st deadline. Ireland’s Construction PMI was 54.6 in...

January’s exchequer returns show healthy start to 2019

January’s exchequer returns showed a healthy start to 2019, buoyant tax receipts, up 7% or €351m, still beating Budget targets and indicating economic activity remained strong at the...

Irish residential property prices rise by a solid 0.7% in September

Today’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) data show prices up a solid 0.7% in September, with annual inflation slowing to 8.2%. Prices in Dublin rose by 0.4% on the month, up 5.8% on...

Irish housing completions rise by 23% in year to Q3 2018

This morning’s CSO data show that there were 4,673 housing completions in Q3 2018, up 23% on the year. Total homebuilding looks set to exceed 18,000 in calendar year 2018 – especially...

Exchequer returns broadly in line with expectations

The highlight of today's exchequer returns for October was an extra €773m of corporation tax receipts, vis-a-vis last year's Budget targets. However, this outperformance had been...

Pattern of UK GDP growth points to recession risk in 2019

At face value, the news that UK GDP grew by 0.2% does not look that bad. However, the underlying pattern points to a clear risk of recession in 2019. Business investment has now...

Revising down our UK GDP growth forecasts

We have revised down our UK GDP growth forecast to 1.0% in 2019. Brexit, tighter financial conditions and political uncertainties are now weighing on UK GDP growth. We expect a ‘soft...

Irish household debt ratios fall below UK levels for the first time

Central Bank data show that Ireland’s household debt fell to €137.5bn in Q3 2018, or 120% of disposable income. The ratio is now below the UK (124%) for the first time but is still the...

PMI surveys add to the gloom on outlook for European/UK growth

Equity markets rose on Tuesday despite euro area (51.0) and UK (50.3) composite PMI surveys signalling that GDP growth ground almost to a halt in early 2019. The consistent message...