Economic
Forecasts for US government debt set to top 142% of GDP
As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings take place this week in Bangkok, we expect an upward revision to the US debt ratio. Despite hopes from President Trump that inflation...
Budget 2027 forecasts remain conservative
Many measures introduced in Budget 2027 will be popular with Irish households, including new tax-efficient savings and investment accounts. However, Budget forecasts remain conservative...
Tax receipts remain well in excess of official forecasts
Tax receipts were exceptionally strong in September. While corporation tax continued to benefit from a higher rate and strong corporate profitability, non-corporation taxes also...
September payrolls rise though below consensus expectations
Despite missing consensus by 60k, the initial estimate of 29k net jobs added to payrolls in September still points to a solid, if unremarkable, US labour market in Q3. The average monthly...
Bank of England holds and August retail sales improve
A busy week of UK economy news culminated in this morning’s retail sales result for August, which showed a reversal of July’s headline decline. While the UK economy could outperform...
UK inflation in August in line with consensus
While UK headline inflation increased above 3% again in August, the result was in line with consensus and driven by another jump in energy prices. Core inflation was steady at 2.6% for a...
Second-round effects still absent for the UK
UK results for the labour market this morning continue to show little or no evidence of second-round effects due to higher energy prices this year. Payrolls declined again in August,...
Energy price-cap increase sees inflation pick up to 2.9% in July
July’s inflation increased to 2.9%, matching the latest consensus. While expected increases to energy prices were the driving factor, the results were still mildly hawkish in our view. For...
