Davy Research

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Irish Economy

New Irish economic forecasts

We expect Irish GDP growth of 5% in 2017, revised up from 3.7%. GDP growth in 2016 was stronger than expected and artificially depressed by a €20bn import of intellectual property...

May 8 2017 | Conall Mac Coille , David McNamara | Irish Economy | 14 pages

Revising up our forecasts for Irish mortgage market as lending surges in Q1 2017

New Banking and Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) data show mortgage lending of €1.4bn in Q1 2017, up 39% on the year. Mortgage approvals in March rose to a fresh record high of...

May 4 2017 | Conall Mac Coille | Irish Economy | 1 page

Irish economy: labour market recovery has further to run

The recent sharp decline in the unemployment rate to 6.6% begs the question of how much further the recovery has left to run. We think there is still plenty of slack in the labour...

Mar 3 2017 | David McNamara | Davy Economics Monthly | 8 pages

Eurozone and UK: prospects diverge in post-Brexit Europe

In our January issue of Davy Economics Monthly, we highlight the diverging outlook for the eurozone and UK economies in 2017. Concerns around political events – namely, elections in...

Jan 18 2017 | David McNamara | Davy Economics Monthly | 11 pages


Irish Economic Indicators

Irish economy Irish residential property price inflation accelerates to 10.5%

The Irish residential property price index (RPPI) rose by a sharp 1.1% in April. This means that annual RPPI inflation is now running at 10.5%, accelerating from 9.6% in March. This is the... ...

Jun 7 2017 | Conall Mac Coille | Research Report | 1 page

Irish Economy Irish unemployment steady at 6.4% in May

Unemployment data, released to-day (May 30th), show the rate steady at 6.4% in May. Total numbers unemployed continued to decline, down 1,200 on the month and by 42,800 on the year... ...

May 30 2017 | Conall Mac Coille | Research Report | 1 page

Irish Economy Strong growth in retail sales in April

Today’s retail sales data show that the robust growth in Irish consumer spending has been maintained in Q2 2017. Retail sales (ex-motor trades) volumes rose by 0.4% in April, up 6.4% on... ...

May 29 2017 | David McNamara | Research Report | 1 page

Irish Economy Irish earnings growth accelerates to 1.4%

Today’s earnings data show wages up 1.4% in the year to Q1, ahead of the current CPI inflation rate of 0.9%. In the private sector, earnings growth was 1.5%, led by administration and... ...

May 26 2017 | Conall Mac Coille | Research Report | 1 page


UK Economy

Budget 2017 plots a cautious path

Today’s UK Spring Budget provided very few headlines. The government’s fiscal position is expected to be broadly unchanged in 2022, leaving the Chancellor little wiggle room within his...

Mar 8 2017 | David McNamara | Research Report | 4 pages

UK construction sector set for weak 2017

Outside of housebuilding, the UK construction sector in 2016 had one of its worst years since the recession with output expanding by just 1.6% compared to a 3.6% gain in 2015. We...

Feb 21 2017 | David McNamara , Conall Mac Coille | Research Report | 11 pages

New UK economy forecasts

We have revised up our forecasts for UK GDP growth to 1.5% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018, close to the current consensus. The big picture is that the UK economy will see GDP growth below...

Feb 20 2017 | Conall Mac Coille | Research Report | 8 pages

Council of Mortgage Lenders revises down projections for UK mortgage market

Yesterday (December 15th), the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) revised down its projections for UK mortgage lending in 2017 by 5% to £248bn. This represents marginal growth from...

Dec 16 2016 | Conall Mac Coille | Research Report | 1 page


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

June 27 2017

  • UK : CBI Total Distributive Sales, June
  • US : Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, June

June 28 2017

  • IRE : Retail Sales Index, May
  • US : Advance Goods Trade Balance, May

June 29 2017

  • EU : Business Climate Indicator, June
  • EU : Consumer Confindence, June
  • UK : Mortgage Approvals, May
  • US : GDP annualised, Q1
  • US : Initial jobless claims, June 24

June 30 2017

  • UK : Total Business Investment, Q1
  • US : Personal Spending, May
  • US : University of Michigan Sentiment, June

July 3 2017

  • EU : Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, June
  • EU : Unemployment Rate, May
  • UK : Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA, June
  • US : ISM Manufacturing, June

July 4 2017

  • IRE : Unemployment Rate, June

July 5 2017

  • EU : Markit Eurozone Services PMI, June
  • IRE : Industrial Production, May
  • UK : BRC Shop Price Index, June
  • US : FOMC Meeting Minutes, June 14

July 6 2017

  • EU : Markit Eurozone Retail PMI, June
  • IRE : Live Register Level SA, June
  • US : Trade Balance, May
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