Economic
Ireland’s labour market stayed robust once again into Q2
Despite a weak labour force survey result in Q1 and a downbeat external environment, the most reliable measure of Ireland’s labour market remained strong into Q2. We estimate employee...
Starmer expected to announce his plans for resignation
After the Federal Reserve and Bank of England both held rates unchanged last week along with a busy release calendar, there is a relatively quiet data schedule for the week ahead...
Andy Burnham slightly ahead in Makerfield by-election polls
This week includes interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh) and the Bank of England (BoE); no change in rates is expected for either....
May inflation moderates, but a pick-up is likely into summer
Headline inflation moderated to 3.5% this month, in line with our latest forecast. However, core inflation was faster than we expected at 2.8%, mainly as a result of services inflation –...
Volatile labour force survey at odds with steady payroll gains
We have noted for some time increased uncertainty surrounding the official labour market data, which have been volatile and difficult to interpret due to base effects. The latest Q1...
First-time buyer activity grew strongly again in March
One takeaway from today’s residential property price data for March is the continued strong growth in first-time buyer (FTB) transactions in March. This aligns with a key message...
Resilient Irish economy in March despite high global uncertainty
The latest exchequer returns for March and card payments data for February align with our view that the Irish economy began 2026 in good shape. We think an inflation boost to tax...
Jobs growth of about 2.5% in December and January
We continue to look through November’s surprisingly weak payrolls result and note that December and January payrolls, with typical revisions factored in, grew by about 2.5% in annual...
Bank Rate held at 3.75% with little update to forward guidance
Despite this week’s deal between Iran and the US, rate setters at the Bank of England (BoE) are content to retain a wait-and-see outlook before committing firmly to any change in...
Another dovish inflation result in May undershoots forecasts
May’s undershoot for UK inflation supports our view early last month that the Bank of England (BoE) should not increase Bank Rate this year. Relative to its latest (April) projection,...
April inflation hits our forecast for another dovish surprise
April’s inflation fell to 2.8%, below consensus and matching our forecast. Core inflation also declined to 2.5%, with services inflation down to 3.2%. The results follow yesterday’s (May...
UK growth picked up in Q1 after Budget-driven weakness in Q4
The UK economy was stronger than expected in March, and after some downward revision to February’s result, Q1 growth was in line with consensus. This resilience is encouraging despite...
