Economic

Raising forecast for Irish house price inflation to 4% in 2023

We have raised our forecast for Irish house price inflation to 4% in 2023 (3% previously) due to the Central Bank of Ireland’s decision to loosen the mortgage lending rules. We believe...

Ireland’s manufacturing sector more resilient than peers

This morning’s Irish industrial production data could show output fell in Q3 2022, detracting from Irish GDP growth, which we had forecast would grow by just 0.4% in Q3 despite the...

Irish unemployment rate steady at 4.4%

The news that Ireland’s unemployment rate was steady at 4.4% in October, following encouraging data on income tax receipts, is a reassuring sign that the labour market remains strong....

Homebuilding holding up better than expected so far

A plethora of Irish housing market data released in recent days suggest activity has been more resilient than expected. Housing completions in Q3 2022 were 7,544, up 62% on the year...

Irish residential property price inflation slows to 10.8%

The 0.6% gain in the Irish Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) in September is substantial, but was the softest rise since April, tentative evidence that the market is slowing. We are...

Irish Services PMI still resilient at 53.2 in October

This morning’s Irish Services PMI at 53.2 shows the sector slowing but with new business expanding, accompanied by jobs growth accelerating to a three-month high and sentiment on...

Irish Manufacturing PMI 51.4 in October

This morning’s Manufacturing PMI for October at 51.4 should provide more reassurance that the defensive nature of the sector is once again providing some protection for the economy....

Irish residential property price inflation slows to 12%

The Irish Residential Property Price Index (RPPI), released yesterday (October 13th), showed another 1.3% gain in August with annual inflation at 12%. This points to little slowdown so far,...

Markets may be unconvinced by Hunt’s plan to freeze spending

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt looks set to deliver a £54bn package, worth 2% of GDP, of tax rises and spending cuts in tomorrow’s Autumn Statement. He will face a...

Acceleration in pay will make Bank of England’s job harder

This morning’s UK labour market data provide mixed signals on the pace at which jobs growth is slowing. Headline employment at 32.7m is down 0.2% over the past three months, but the...

UK recession likely after 0.2% GDP contraction in Q3

This morning’s UK GDP data show a 0.2% contraction in Q3 and a 0.6% decline in September. The sharp decline in activity in September is in part due to the disruption around the time of...

RICS survey shows UK housing bubble has burst

Most of the price and activity readings from this morning’s Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey for October have collapsed, close to mid-2008 levels when the pace...