Economic

MyHome Property Report, Q1 2021

Today’s MyHome report shows asking price inflation moderating to 4% in Q1 2021 from 6% at end-2020, which we believe was artificially inflated by the distorted seasonal pattern of...

Surprise rise in Irish Services PMI to 54.6 in March

Given that Ireland remained in its third lockdown in March, the rise in the Services PMI to 54.6 is surprising. Crucially, the PMI does not include retail/personal services sectors which...

US ISM Services signals price pressures building

Yesterday’s US ISM Services survey at 63.7 in March indicated that the recovery is proceeding at a rapid pace, with activity (69.4) and new orders (67.2) seeing even faster growth....

Irish manufacturing PMI rises to 57.1 in March

This morning’s Irish manufacturing PMI is up sharply to 57.1 in March, signalling a marked improvement in business conditions, in tandem with the broader upturn in manufacturing in Europe...

September’s exchequer returns point to smaller deficit in 2020

September’s exchequer returns show tax revenues remaining resilient and the growth in spending moderating, leaving our forecast for the 2020 deficit to equal €22bn (6.3% of GDP) on...

July’s exchequer returns a mixed bag

July’s exchequer returns were a mixed bag, showing tax revenues still relatively resilient, down 18.6% on the year, but outperforming the conservative assumptions in April’s Stability...

May exchequer returns beat gloomy expectations

May’s exchequer returns were far better than expected, with tax revenues €2bn ahead of official projections, mainly reflecting buoyant corporation taxes. However, resilient income...

March exchequer returns show €2bn hit from COVID-19 measures

Today’s exchequer returns show a €2bn hit from COVID-19 on the public finances in March through extra health spending and social welfare payments and a fall in VAT receipts. The 50%...

UK consumer confidence surges in March

This morning’s UK GfK Consumer Confidence survey shows a surge in sentiment in March as vaccines were rolled out, with 12-month expectations for the economy at their highest level...

Sunak’s budget to put off difficult choices for now

Tomorrow’s UK Budget looks set to be as focused on extending COVID-19 supports such as the furlough scheme and stamp duty holiday as signalling tax rises will be required to...

Borrowing figures give Sunak a little more room for manoeuvre

This morning’s UK GfK Consumer Confidence data show another improvement – households likely buoyed by the vaccine rollout. However, January’s retail sales data show that the impact of...

UK GDP contracted by 9.9% in 2020

UK GDP data released this morning show a 1% gain in Q4. The temporary re-opening last month and manufacturing orders brought forward ahead of the Brexit deadline helped a strong 1.2%...