Economic
Transactions data augur well for Q2 new housing supply
An encouraging sign in today’s residential property price data was that transactions for new properties grew 19% in May. This augurs well for new housing supply in Q2. Property prices...
Moderating property price growth of c.6% is likely in May
After a relatively quiet week of economic data releases last week, this week sees May residential property prices and employee payrolls data due for Ireland. US consumer and producer...
Ireland’s economic growth continues to outperform
In line with our expectations, the Irish economy continues to grow above consensus. We have revised down our forecast for housing supply to 44k next year and progress appears...
A key week for Ireland’s most reliable economic indicators
This week will see an update to Ireland’s national accounts for 2025. We expect upside risks will materialise to our above-consensus forecasts for economic activity, with consumer...
Inflation moderated in June despite services acceleration
June’s flash inflation reading was 3.3% in annual terms, above our forecast of 3.1% but still a moderation from 3.5% in May and 3.6% in the previous two months. Energy prices declined...
Volatile labour force survey at odds with steady payroll gains
We have noted for some time increased uncertainty surrounding the official labour market data, which have been volatile and difficult to interpret due to base effects. The latest Q1...
First-time buyer activity grew strongly again in March
One takeaway from today’s residential property price data for March is the continued strong growth in first-time buyer (FTB) transactions in March. This aligns with a key message...
Resilient Irish economy in March despite high global uncertainty
The latest exchequer returns for March and card payments data for February align with our view that the Irish economy began 2026 in good shape. We think an inflation boost to tax...
Revisions imply downside risks to 2026 UK GDP growth
This morning’s UK GDP revisions show an unchanged pace of quarterly growth in Q1 2026, but downward revisions to Q3 and Q4 2025 mean a lower annual pace of 0.9% to begin this year....
Bank Rate held at 3.75% with little update to forward guidance
Despite this week’s deal between Iran and the US, rate setters at the Bank of England (BoE) are content to retain a wait-and-see outlook before committing firmly to any change in...
Another dovish inflation result in May undershoots forecasts
May’s undershoot for UK inflation supports our view early last month that the Bank of England (BoE) should not increase Bank Rate this year. Relative to its latest (April) projection,...
April inflation hits our forecast for another dovish surprise
April’s inflation fell to 2.8%, below consensus and matching our forecast. Core inflation also declined to 2.5%, with services inflation down to 3.2%. The results follow yesterday’s (May...
