Economic
Property prices decelerated in October; monthly services prices fell in November
Ireland’s residential property prices decelerated on the month in October but remain up strongly by 7.3% in annual terms. While growth in the volume of transactions was relatively muted,...
New forecasts: risks are tilted to the upside of consensus
For Ireland and the global economy more broadly, 2025 has been a year characterised by economic resilience to disruptive trade developments and geopolitical tensions. An important...
Last major week of economy data releases of 2025
Ahead of Christmas holidays beginning next week, a number of economic data publications that would normally be released then have instead been frontloaded into this week. As a result,...
Federal Reserve poised to cut again this week
While the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates this week, its updated projections could disappoint financial markets. US corporate profitability remains strong despite some...
Entire 2025 surplus explained by November’s corporation tax
Exactly as we forecast five months ago, November’s corporation tax reached €10bn – equivalent to the entire projected surplus this year in last month’s Budget. Strong growth for...
Q3 survey-based employment at odds with hard-data payrolls
The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed a marked slowdown in employment growth to 1.1% compared to Q3 2024. This is somewhat below our latest forecast and chimes with other...
A slowdown in economic growth into autumn is evident
October’s exchequer returns were once again characterised by strong corporation taxes and weaker tax receipts elsewhere, albeit income tax recovered somewhat from an especially...
Flat transactions for new properties in July
Strong summer price trends continued in July, and we expect upward revisions to June could repeat. However, new property transactions were surprisingly weak in July; if this continues,...
UK inflation lands well below consensus in November
Annual UK inflation fell well below consensus expectations in November, reaching 3.2% compared to a 3.5% consensus figure. The declines were quite broadly based, and core inflation also...
Budget doubles fiscal headroom with backloaded fiscal drag
As expected, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered another difficult UK Budget. However, the details of the Budget were unexpectedly leaked prior to her speech. Nonetheless, the UK bond...
Below-consensus inflation in September
While UK consumer price inflation remained high last month, it was softer than expected across a broad range of goods and services. This follows last week’s labour market data which...
UK economy tracking quite well despite Budget worries
Early Q3 indications point to a more resilient UK economy compared to last year, when Budget worries dragged activity lower. The government’s supply-side reforms could help to avoid...
