Davy Research

Economic Debt & Credit Research

Irish Economy

Senate loss puts Trump tax bill on a knife edge

The loss of a Senate seat in a special election puts the Trump tax bill on a knife edge. When the new Democrat Senator takes his seat the Republicans will have the slimmest majority of...

Dec 13 2017 | David McNamara | Irish Economy | 4 pages

Irish house price inflation eases to 12.1%

Residential property prices rose by 0.5% in October, with annual inflation now 12.1% — easing from a downwardly revised 12.2% in September. Rising leverage in the mortgage market has...

Dec 12 2017 | David McNamara | Irish Economy | 4 pages

Irish economy: labour market recovery has further to run

The recent sharp decline in the unemployment rate to 6.6% begs the question of how much further the recovery has left to run. We think there is still plenty of slack in the labour...

Mar 3 2017 | David McNamara | Davy Economics Monthly | 8 pages

Eurozone and UK: prospects diverge in post-Brexit Europe

In our January issue of Davy Economics Monthly, we highlight the diverging outlook for the eurozone and UK economies in 2017. Concerns around political events – namely, elections in...

Jan 18 2017 | David McNamara | Davy Economics Monthly | 11 pages


Irish Economic Indicators

Irish economy Irish GDP surges in Q3

The volatile Irish GDP numbers remain an analyst’s nightmare! The 4.2% surge in GDP in Q3 and the upward revisions to prior quarters mean that we will probably have to revise up our... ...

Dec 15 2017 | David McNamara | Research Report | 4 pages

Irish economy Mortgage arrears continue to fall

Today’s mortgage arrears data from the Central Bank show that the number of problem loans continues to fall. In Q3 2017, 90-day arrears fell to 6.9% of the outstanding stock of... ...

Dec 14 2017 | David McNamara | Research Report | 4 pages

Irish economy Irish unemployment falls to 6.1%

Unemployment fell to 6.1% in November from 6.3% in October, but today’s data come with a health warning ahead of revisions in January. As we have been pointing out for some time, the... ...

Dec 5 2017 | David McNamara | Research Report | 4 pages

Irish economy Retail sales steady in October

The October retail sales data show volume steady on the month and up 4.5% year-on-year (yoy). Excluding volatile motor trades, sales were down 0.3% and up 6% yoy. Overall, the data... ...

Nov 28 2017 | David McNamara | Research Report | 4 pages


UK Economy

UK labour market showing signs of weakness

At first glance, an unemployment rate steady at 4.3% suggests that the UK labour market is in good health. However, scratching beneath the surface reveals signs of weakness in...

Dec 14 2017 | David McNamara | Research Report | 4 pages

UK inflation nears its peak

Today’s UK inflation numbers for November are expected to show no change in annual CPI, currently 3%. Indeed, the easing in inflationary pressures in upstream producer prices suggests...

Dec 12 2017 | David McNamara | Research Report | 4 pages

UK economic outlook depends on outcome of December negotiations

Sterling fluctuated on Monday (December 4th) as EU/UK negotiations finally ended with no agreement. Our new forecast is for mediocre 1.2% UK GDP growth in 2018, below consensus....

Dec 5 2017 | Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 4 pages

New Davy UK economic forecasts

Since we issued our last UK GDP forecasts, the economy has performed broadly in line with expectations. GDP growth has slowed to 1.5%; consumer spending has been squeezed by rising...

Dec 5 2017 | Conall MacCoille , David McNamara | Research Report | 14 pages


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

December 18 2017

  • EU : CPI core, November

December 19 2017

  • EU : Construction output, October
  • GER : IFO business climate, December
  • GER : IFO current assessment, December
  • GER : IFO expectations, December
  • US : Building permits, November
  • US : Housing starts, November
  • US : Building permits, November

December 20 2017

  • EU : ECB current account SA, October
  • US : Existing home sales, November
  • US : Existing home sales. November

December 21 2017

  • EU : Consumer confidence, December
  • IRE : Overseas travel, September - November
  • IRE : Wholesale price index, December
  • US : Initial jobless claims, December 16
  • US : GDP annualized, Q3

December 22 2017

  • UK : Total business investment, Q3
  • US : Durable goods orders, November
  • US : PCE core, November
  • US : University of Michigan sentiment, December
  • US : New home sales, November
  • Us : Personal spending, November

December 26 2017

  • IRE : Retail Sales, November
  • IRE : Retail Sales, November

December 27 2017

  • US : Conference board consumer confidience, December

December 28 2017

  • EU : ECB publishes economic bulletin
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