Economic, Debt & Credit

Common euro area debt instrument still a step too far

Equity markets closed up on Thursday (March 26th) despite news that US jobless claims surged to 3.3m, or 2% of US employment. Meanwhile, the Bank of England took no further action...

Mortgage approvals up 9% in February before COVID-19 impact

This morning’s mortgage approvals of €825m in February show healthy growth, up 9% on the year, bringing the total to €11.2bn over the past 12 months. Approvals to first-time buyers, up...

Irish government unveils further €3.7bn stimulus package

Yesterday (March 24th), the Irish government announced new income/welfare supports worth €3.7bn, bringing the total COVID-19 stimulus package to €6.7bn (1.9% of GDP). The...

Irish government to consider lockdown measures this morning

Following UK action, Irish media report that the government will consider restrictions on non-essential travel, commercial and social activity this morning. Overnight, Japan’s composite PMI...

Budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP expected after buoyant tax returns

Given today’s buoyant exchequer returns, with corporate taxes €748m ahead of target, the Minister for Finance has revised up his forecast for a surplus of €1.4bn (0.4% of GDP) in...

Irish housing starts surge to 26,000, up 33% in Q3 2019

This morning’s Irish housing starts data have beaten all expectations, showing 7,596 commencements in Q3 2019 – up 33% on the year; the 2,648 in Dublin were up 27%. There have been...

Irish government set to beat its Budget surplus target for 2019

Although spending pressures should emerge in the final two months of 2019, we still believe today’s exchequer returns show the government on track to record a surplus well in excess...

Exchequer Returns show tax revenues up 12% on the year

Today’s exchequer returns show buoyant tax revenues, up 12% to €5.7bn, with income taxes, VAT and corporation taxes all up sharply on the year. Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe...

Sunak’s sugar rush Budget

Yesterday’s UK Budget giveaway was the largest since 1992, with £30bn (or 1.4% of GDP) of spending and tax cuts – leading to a deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2021. The Office for Budget...

Bank of England cuts rates ahead of giveaway UK budget

The Bank of England has cut rates to 0.25% this morning, alongside reducing the counter-cyclical capital buffer to zero and announcing a new term funding scheme. This comes ahead of...

January’s retail sales point to rebound in UK consumer spending

After a sharp slowdown in H2 2019, January’s UK retail sales figures showed a rebound in consumer spending. Core sales volumes rose 1.7% on the month, suggesting that reduced...

UK labour market bouncing back

UK labour market data for December published today are expected to show a slight moderation in jobs growth, but this jars with recent UK PMI and Recruitment & Employment...

NTMA to issue new 15-year bond

The NTMA has announced a new 15-year syndication as part of its €10-14bn funding range for 2020. This report sets out some recent key facts on the funding, fiscal metrics and Irish...

DAA: looking through the regulatory headlines

The DAA bond has underperformed in recent months amid concern regarding the regulatory airport tariff reductions for the 2020-2024 price control period. We believe this...

ESB: long-dated € bonds look attractive

ESB’s recent H1 results showed a recovery in leverage metrics, and funding activity year-to-date leaves near-term issuance needs manageable. Brexit may create some headline noise, but...