Economic

Flash PMI readings demonstrate negative impact from Omicron

The flash composite PMI readings for the euro area (52.4) and UK (53.4) both fell to 11-month lows in January, pointing to the Omicron variant holding back activity – particularly in...

Irish government announces easing of most COVID-19 restrictions

On Friday (January 21st), the Irish government announced the easing of most COVID-19 restrictions, especially on the hospitality/entertainment sectors, with a phased return to offices...

November’s trade data still point to buoyant export performance

Yesterday’s Irish trade data indicate that export performance in Q4 was still very strong. Nominal goods exports were €44bn in the three months to November, up 8% on the year...

Irish Construction PMI falls to eight-month low in December

This morning’s Irish Construction PMI at 53.7 shows momentum in the sector softened substantially in December. Some of this slowdown was inevitable as activity returned to pre-pandemic...

September’s exchequer returns point to smaller deficit in 2020

September’s exchequer returns show tax revenues remaining resilient and the growth in spending moderating, leaving our forecast for the 2020 deficit to equal €22bn (6.3% of GDP) on...

July’s exchequer returns a mixed bag

July’s exchequer returns were a mixed bag, showing tax revenues still relatively resilient, down 18.6% on the year, but outperforming the conservative assumptions in April’s Stability...

May exchequer returns beat gloomy expectations

May’s exchequer returns were far better than expected, with tax revenues €2bn ahead of official projections, mainly reflecting buoyant corporation taxes. However, resilient income...

March exchequer returns show €2bn hit from COVID-19 measures

Today’s exchequer returns show a €2bn hit from COVID-19 on the public finances in March through extra health spending and social welfare payments and a fall in VAT receipts. The 50%...

UK retail sales drop by enormous 3.7% in December

This morning’s retail sales data for December show an enormous 3.7% decline on the month. Also, the GfK Consumer Confidence survey for January has fallen to its lowest level since...

UK CPI inflation beats expectations again in December

This morning’s UK’s CPI release, showing inflation accelerating to 5.4% in December, is ahead of market expectations – pointing to more persistent price pressures. Core inflation rose to...

UK GDP growth accelerates in November

This morning’s UK GDP data, showing a 0.9% month-on-month rise in November, show the economy had considerably more momentum than thought, shrugging off supply-chain issues and with...

UK GDP data show slower pace of rebound during the summer

This morning’s UK GDP release shows the economy had a little less momentum during the summer, with GDP up 1.1% in Q3 2021 rather than the 1.3% first estimated. This will only add to...