Economic
Early signals due this week for the US economy in May
Preliminary US data for May are likely to capture most of the attention this week, and April data could show an initial upward impact on consumer prices due to tariffs. In the UK and...
Faster housing delivery could mitigate the impact of tariffs
Updated forecasts from the Department of Finance show that economic growth will slow next year due to US tariffs. However, we continue to believe that this presents a compelling...
Market focus returns to central bank meetings this week
Markets this week will focus on meetings for the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Three further cuts this year are priced in for each, but the Bank of England is firmly expected...
Government’s new forecasts are expected tomorrow
The main release of note this week is tomorrow’s expected update of economic and fiscal forecasts from Ireland’s Department of Finance. Elsewhere, US labour market data for April are...
Consumer spending enters 2025 on a strong footing
The Irish economy began 2025 in good shape. Tailwinds from strong labour demand have been helped along by lower interest rates and a decline in headline inflation, which remains the...
Expansionary Budgets add to a strong economy in 2024
The December Exchequer returns suggest strong economic activity in 2024, boosted by successive expansionary Budgets. Voted current and capital spending each grew faster than...
Transactions for new homes climb 26% in October
Residential property prices grew 9.7% in October, close to the double-digit rates seen in recent months. However, rapid increases in Q4 last year mean some reduction in headline growth...
Ireland’s Exchequer begins to receive back-taxes from Apple
While October is not a crucial month for the Irish Exchequer, volatility of recent years continued with a near-trebling of corporation tax. This was driven by the first arrival to the...
Slower UK inflation paves the way for a rate cut in May
UK inflation declined to 2.6% in March. While still above target, the Bank of England is likely to take comfort from a slower path for services inflation compared to its latest forecast. A...
February GDP gains from a pre-tariff manufacturing boost
While growth in February’s GDP was well above expectations, this was driven by a pre-tariff manufacturing boost. Despite an otherwise hawkish backdrop, we now expect the Bank of...
Government banking on growth to avoid future welfare cuts
There were few surprises in the Spring Statement as weaker growth and higher borrowing costs limited the Chancellor’s scope for new policies. Well-flagged adjustments to last...
Services disinflation boosts the case for Bank Rate cuts in 2025
UK inflation declined marginally in December, helped by services price disinflation. This marks an improvement on recent months, especially for a subset of non-volatile services (excluding...
