Economic
Consumers keep spending as corporation tax spikes again
The latest monthly data for June (monthly card payments) and July (exchequer returns) were published yesterday (August 6th). The card payments data point to a continued strong...
Bank Rate to be cut this week despite above-target inflation
A busy data schedule last week ended with an ‘August surprise’. Large downward revisions to US nonfarm payrolls data were followed by President Trump firing the head of the Bureau...
US-EU tariff deal does not alter our Irish economy outlook
A number of details about yesterday’s 15% tariff deal between the US and EU remain unclear. However, despite the inclusion of pharmaceuticals (other than some chemicals and generics)...
Q2 housing, a new National Development Plan and the Summer Economic Statement
This week, three important Irish releases include Q2 housing completions, a new National Development Plan (NDP) and the Summer Economic Statement. Some €200bn of public capital spending...
A new record month for corporation taxes in June
Corporation tax continued its year-to-date pattern of extreme volatility in June, more than compensating for weaker receipts in May. This augurs well for full-year 2025 receipts since...
Consumer spending enters 2025 on a strong footing
The Irish economy began 2025 in good shape. Tailwinds from strong labour demand have been helped along by lower interest rates and a decline in headline inflation, which remains the...
Expansionary Budgets add to a strong economy in 2024
The December Exchequer returns suggest strong economic activity in 2024, boosted by successive expansionary Budgets. Voted current and capital spending each grew faster than...
Transactions for new homes climb 26% in October
Residential property prices grew 9.7% in October, close to the double-digit rates seen in recent months. However, rapid increases in Q4 last year mean some reduction in headline growth...
A hawkish Bank Rate cut after an unprecedented second vote
As it did in August last year, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted narrowly for a cut to Bank Rate. This is despite solid economic growth, above-target inflation...
Faster June inflation weakens the case for two rate cuts in H2
UK inflation was rapid in June, especially for core inflation which grew 0.4% compared to May and double the consensus expectation of 0.2%. In annual terms, overall and core inflation of...
Services inflation rises back above 5% in April
As the Bank of England has long been pre-occupied with price changes for services, April’s 5.4% annual result will encourage a more hawkish direction for Bank Rate. Market pricing has...
Slower UK inflation paves the way for a rate cut in May
UK inflation declined to 2.6% in March. While still above target, the Bank of England is likely to take comfort from a slower path for services inflation compared to its latest forecast. A...
