Economic
Sharp repricing of interest rates as energy prices spiral
Market pricing for interest rates have inflected sharply this month since US and Israel strikes began on Iran. Much will depend on the duration of the war and when the Strait of...
Supreme Court’s tariff ruling reasserts separation of powers
The US Supreme Court decision late last week can be seen as positive for the US dollar, albeit increasing the US budget deficit is likely to provide a marginally negative impulse....
Employment growth set to beat most forecasts again in 2026
A weaker pace of survey-measured employment growth during 2025 reverted in line with our forecast for Q4 and more benign signals from monthly administrative payrolls. The unemployment...
This week’s UK data unlikely to prevent a March rate cut
The UK economy continues to exhibit disinflationary trends. The economy grew by less than expected in Q4; the labour market continues to loosen as wage growth declines rapidly; and...
Q4 national accounts show strong economic growth in 2025
The quarterly national accounts for Q4 2025 are consistent with our long-standing view that the Irish economy remains in a high-growth phase, despite high global uncertainty. Consumer...
Labour market remains robust based on latest exchequer data
February’s exchequer returns showed a strong rebound in non-corporation tax growth, driven by income tax, albeit this came after a soft result in January. However, we point to new...
December property prices up 7%; volumes jumped 15%
Residential property prices grew strongly again in 2025, increasing by 7.5% compared to 2024. This was an unsurprising result given Ireland’s large shortfall of housing and continued...
Taxes are still likely to exceed official forecasts this year
Exchequer returns for January showed a slowdown in core tax receipts. However, the 2025 results exceeded Budget 2026 forecasts, and tax receipts this year would now need to be...
More rate cuts likely after the UK economy weakened in Q4
This morning’s GDP data for the UK paint a similar picture to the prior year, with growth in the first half considerably stronger than in the second half of the year. The Q4 result was...
UK inflation lands well below consensus in November
Annual UK inflation fell well below consensus expectations in November, reaching 3.2% compared to a 3.5% consensus figure. The declines were quite broadly based, and core inflation also...
Budget doubles fiscal headroom with backloaded fiscal drag
As expected, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered another difficult UK Budget. However, the details of the Budget were unexpectedly leaked prior to her speech. Nonetheless, the UK bond...
Below-consensus inflation in September
While UK consumer price inflation remained high last month, it was softer than expected across a broad range of goods and services. This follows last week’s labour market data which...
