Economic
Growth in payrolled employees fell back to about 2% into Q4
We have long noted the advantage of employee payrolls data over survey-based measures. That said, the data should be interpreted with an understanding that upward revisions are...
A need for higher housing starts to be the “new normal”
The Department of Housing has published housing starts data for December. While the 2025 total was disappointing at 16k, December’s 3k was by far the highest figure all year, and...
Trump’s increasingly erratic and unpopular policies
The main data releases of note for the week ahead include US consumer prices for December, UK GDP and Irish employee payrolls for November. President Trump’s increasingly erratic...
US economy added just 12k net new jobs a month since April
US payrolls data for December released this afternoon point to a broadly stable labour market into the end of the year, aligning in broad terms with other recent data. However, the...
Exchequer returns point to a strong economy into 2026
December’s exchequer returns saw another strong increase in corporation taxes, up €1bn on the same month last year. This is very similar to the increase seen in July and the results...
Entire 2025 surplus explained by November’s corporation tax
Exactly as we forecast five months ago, November’s corporation tax reached €10bn – equivalent to the entire projected surplus this year in last month’s Budget. Strong growth for...
Q3 survey-based employment at odds with hard-data payrolls
The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed a marked slowdown in employment growth to 1.1% compared to Q3 2024. This is somewhat below our latest forecast and chimes with other...
A slowdown in economic growth into autumn is evident
October’s exchequer returns were once again characterised by strong corporation taxes and weaker tax receipts elsewhere, albeit income tax recovered somewhat from an especially...
UK inflation lands well below consensus in November
Annual UK inflation fell well below consensus expectations in November, reaching 3.2% compared to a 3.5% consensus figure. The declines were quite broadly based, and core inflation also...
Budget doubles fiscal headroom with backloaded fiscal drag
As expected, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered another difficult UK Budget. However, the details of the Budget were unexpectedly leaked prior to her speech. Nonetheless, the UK bond...
Below-consensus inflation in September
While UK consumer price inflation remained high last month, it was softer than expected across a broad range of goods and services. This follows last week’s labour market data which...
UK economy tracking quite well despite Budget worries
Early Q3 indications point to a more resilient UK economy compared to last year, when Budget worries dragged activity lower. The government’s supply-side reforms could help to avoid...
