Economic
Q2 Labour Force Survey still at odds with hard-data indicators
Employment was subdued again in Q2 based on today’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) results. This was as we expected based on July’s unemployment rate estimate (revised up slightly today...
Reverting to our 5.5% forecast for housing price growth in 2026
We have long expected residential property prices to moderate this year from very fast gains of 7.9% for the last five years. We recently downgraded our forecast for 2026 to 4.75%...
2026 inflation is on course to undershoot most forecasts
The full print for Ireland’s inflation in July showed an overall rate in line with the flash indicator published two weeks ago. However, some revisions saw a smaller decline in energy prices...
Weak payrolls reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike
Last week’s labour market update for the US economy was quite mixed, with downward revisions to payrolls this year and a surprise decline in July. A marginally lower unemployment rate...
Energy price-cap increase sees inflation pick up to 2.9% in July
July’s inflation increased to 2.9%, matching the latest consensus. While expected increases to energy prices were the driving factor, the results were still mildly hawkish in our view. For...
Another dovish labour market update for the UK
As we expected, this morning’s labour market update was again dovish. Private sector wage growth continues to track below the Bank of England’s (BoE) estimate for what would be...
UK data likely to show ongoing disinflation in June and July
A busy week ahead for macroeconomic data releases includes a number of updates for the UK, Ireland and the global economy. We expect ongoing disinflation will remain evident for the UK...
Another strong H1 for UK GDP, but a weaker H2 is again likely
UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew strongly in H1, with business investment and manufacturing the standout results in Q2. However, strong H1 growth has been quite typical in recent...
