Economic, Debt & Credit

EU October summit gets underway

Theresa May heads to Brussels today to address EU leaders this evening on the likelihood of a Brexit deal. Yesterday's UK labour market data were slightly concerning, with employment...

Italian cabinet to pass budget on Monday

Alongside Brexit negotiations, Italy’s fiscal position will be a focus for investors next week. Overnight, 5-Star Movement leader Luigi Di Maio said the cabinet will pass a fully-fledged...

Equity markets sell off on tech sector concerns

Equity markets sold off sharply on Wednesday on concerns around the technology sector. The S&P 500 closed down 3.3% and the Nasdaq 4.1%, with Asian equity markets down overnight and...

Budget 2019 eschews caution in favour of sharp spending rises

There were no surprises in today’s Budget – €1.4bn of spending rises were funded by €350m of net revenue measures. The total package is worth close to €3.5bn (1.1% of GDP), a...

Irish residential property price inflation slows to 8.6%

The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) inflation rate was 8.6% in August, down from 10% in July. In Dublin, RPPI inflation was 6.1% – half the 13% rate recorded in April. RPPI inflation...

Exchequer returns do little to change the budgetary arithmetic

Today’s exchequer returns do little to change the budgetary arithmetic for next week’s Budget for 2019. Tax revenues are in line with targets, and spending is over-running slightly –...

Irish GDP likely to grow by 7% in 2018 after Q2 out-turn

Today’s Irish GDP data show a 2.5% rise in Q2, with activity bouncing back after a 0.4% contraction in Q1. Overall, GDP is up 9% in H1 2018 versus last year. This means we will have to...

Irish residential property price inflation slows to 10.4%

The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) increased by 1% in July, but the annual inflation rate fell to 10.4% — its slowest pace since April 2017. In Dublin, prices rose by a solid 0.7% on...

UK labour market data to shed light on slowdown in jobs creation

UK labour market data for August should shed light on whether the slowdown in employment growth in July to a five-year low was a blip or indicative of Brexit uncertainties finally...

No deal on Brexit

No deal on Brexit was concluded over the weekend, with no further talks scheduled before this week’s summit meeting. The key obstacle remains Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and UK...

Sterling appreciates to 87.3p on rumours of Brexit deal

Sterling has appreciated to 87.3p against the euro on speculation that British and EU negotiators are now considering a deal that would allow the UK to remain temporarily within the...

EU to offer UK ‘super-charged’, non-binding political declaration

Reports that the EU is ready to offer the UK a ‘super-charged’ trade deal on Friday (October 5th) helped sterling but were overblown. Instead, a non-binding political declaration was...