Economic

Budget 2025 package of €8.3bn

Yesterday’s Summer Economic Statement flagged an overall package of €8.3bn for Budget 2025 in October. Once again, the government plans to exceed its own spending rule, and this...

Buoyant tax receipts signal rapid economic growth

Ireland’s public finances remain strong this year. Buoyant tax revenues suggest an acceleration of economic growth in Q2. Excluding corporation tax, core tax receipts grew 7.5%...

On the cusp of rapid growth

The Irish economy accelerated into 2024 and is on the cusp of rapid growth, helped by lower inflation. Foreign direct investment (FDI), high-skilled job creation and a rising population...

Politics tracker: Leo’s exit alters little on election timing

A new Taoiseach (Prime Minister) should not materially change the prevailing political dynamics in Ireland. The immediate focus across the political spectrum will be European and local...

Irish residential property prices rise for the first time in six months

Yesterday’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for June rose by 0.6%, the first gain since December after five consecutive months of decline. Prices rose by 0.3% in Dublin, breaking...

Irish Construction PMI falls to 45.6 in July

This morning’s Irish Construction PMI at 45.6 in July, signalling a fresh contraction after stability in June, is surprising. The readings are not consistent with the recent pick-up in...

Residential property price and mortgage approvals data point to resilient Irish housing market

Taken together, this morning’s Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) mortgage approvals data and yesterday’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) point to the resilience of...

Irish Construction PMI points to activity improving in H2

This morning’s Irish Construction PMI at 49.4 in May is still below the 50 no-change level but suggests that activity will pick up in the coming months. New orders rose for a fourth...

UK GDP beats expectations for May

UK GDP bounced back from a weaker April, with month-on-month (mom) growth of 0.4% in May. This was double the consensus expectation for growth of 0.2%. At face value, there is no...

UK PMI surveys point to recession in H2 2023

Last week’s flash UK composite PMI at 46.8 in September shows the clear risk of recession in H2 2023, on past form consistent with a 0.4% quarterly fall in GDP. Worryingly, the PMI...

Bank of England holds rates at 5.25%

Yesterday’s (September 21st) surprise decision to hold rates at 5.25% could well reflect that the Bank of England had seen a preview of today’s PMI surveys for September. Today’s...

UK CPI inflation shows surprise fall to 6.7% in August

Markets have pared back their bets that the Bank of England will raise interest rates tomorrow (September 21st), sterling is under pressure, following this morning’s CPI inflation data...