Davy Research

UK Economy

UK Economy

Budget 2017 plots a cautious path

Today’s UK Spring Budget provided very few headlines. The government’s fiscal position is expected to be broadly unchanged in 2022, leaving the Chancellor little wiggle room within his...

Mar 8 2017 | David McNamara | Research Report | 4 pages

UK construction sector set for weak 2017

Outside of housebuilding, the UK construction sector in 2016 had one of its worst years since the recession with output expanding by just 1.6% compared to a 3.6% gain in 2015. We...

Feb 21 2017 | David McNamara , Conall Mac Coille | Research Report | 11 pages

New UK economy forecasts

We have revised up our forecasts for UK GDP growth to 1.5% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018, close to the current consensus. The big picture is that the UK economy will see GDP growth below...

Feb 20 2017 | Conall Mac Coille | Research Report | 8 pages

Council of Mortgage Lenders revises down projections for UK mortgage market

Yesterday (December 15th), the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) revised down its projections for UK mortgage lending in 2017 by 5% to £248bn. This represents marginal growth from...

Dec 16 2016 | Conall Mac Coille | Research Report | 1 page

Autumn Statement: austerity remains, but small giveaways on welfare and capital investment

Today’s Autumn Statement broadly stuck to the recent playbook. Austerity remains, with sharp adjustments pencilled in for the structural deficit (among the highest in the EU)....

Nov 23 2016 | David McNamara | Research Report | 5 pages

The UK mortgage market: slower housing activity, greater re-mortgaging

The stock of UK mortgage lending has experienced moderate growth in recent years, circa 2-3% per annum, facilitated by a sharp pick-up in new lending. However, Brexit poses the risk...

Sep 28 2016 | Conall Mac Coille , Diarmaid Sheridan | Research Report | 27 pages

New economic forecasts: Brexit to push UK into recession

Following the Brexit referendum outcome on Friday June 24th, the outlook for the UK economy has deteriorated sharply. We believe the uncertainty will be sufficient to push the UK into...

Jun 30 2016 | Conall Mac Coille | Research Report | 4 pages

Growing evidence that Brexit uncertainties are weighing on the UK economy

UK labour market data for February are released this morning. Any weakness in jobs growth will reinforce fears that UK GDP growth is slowing sharply, hurt by Brexit uncertainties, to...

Apr 20 2016 | Conall Mac Coille | Research Report | 1 page

Budget preview: Chancellor to stick to austerity course

An uncertain economic climate, a looming Brexit referendum and disappointing borrowing numbers last year make the Chancellor’s task all the more difficult in Wednesday’s UK Budget. He...

Mar 15 2016 | David McNamara | Research Report | 1 page

Assessing the negative impact of Brexit on the UK economy

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In this report, we examine the impact of Brexit on the UK economy. In the short term, uncertainty related to a potential EU exit is already hurting GDP growth with consensus forecasts...

Mar 9 2016 | Conall Mac Coille | Research Report | 12 pages

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR

May 24 2017

  • EU : Markit eurozone services PMI, May
  • US : FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • US : Existing home sales, May

May 25 2017

  • IRE : Overseas travel, February-April
  • UK : Total business investment, Q1
  • UK : Private consumption, Q1
  • US : Initial jobless claims, May 20th

May 26 2017

  • US : GDP annualised, Q1
  • US : Durable goods orders, April
  • US : University of Michigan sentiment, May
  • US : Personal consumption, Q1

May 29 2017

  • IRE : Retail sales volume, April

May 30 2017

  • US : Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, May
  • US : Personal spending, April

May 31 2017

  • UK : BRC Shop Price Index, May
  • UK : Mortgage approvals, April
  • US : US Federal Reserve Beige Book

June 1 2017

  • IRE : Monthly unemployment, May
  • US : Unemployment Rate, May
  • US : ISM Manufacturing, May
  • US : Initial jobless claims, May 27
  • US : Unit labour costs, Q1
  • US : Change in nonfarm payrolls
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