Davy Research

UK Economy

UK Economy

UK labour market showing signs of weakness

At first glance, an unemployment rate steady at 4.3% suggests that the UK labour market is in good health. However, scratching beneath the surface reveals signs of weakness in...

Dec 14 2017 | David McNamara | Research Report | 4 pages

UK inflation nears its peak

Today’s UK inflation numbers for November are expected to show no change in annual CPI, currently 3%. Indeed, the easing in inflationary pressures in upstream producer prices suggests...

Dec 12 2017 | David McNamara | Research Report | 4 pages

UK economic outlook depends on outcome of December negotiations

Sterling fluctuated on Monday (December 4th) as EU/UK negotiations finally ended with no agreement. Our new forecast is for mediocre 1.2% UK GDP growth in 2018, below consensus....

Dec 5 2017 | Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 4 pages

UK consumer spending set for weakest growth in a decade

Concerns abound regarding the durability of the UK economy in the coming years as the transition to Brexit occurs. Key to this is the fate of the UK consumer – previously the driver...

Dec 5 2017 | David McNamara , Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 15 pages

New Davy UK economic forecasts

Since we issued our last UK GDP forecasts, the economy has performed broadly in line with expectations. GDP growth has slowed to 1.5%; consumer spending has been squeezed by rising...

Dec 5 2017 | Conall MacCoille , David McNamara | Research Report | 14 pages

UK consumer confidence falls to four-month low in November

This morning’s data releases on the UK will raise concerns regarding the prospects for consumer spending. The UK GfK survey showed consumer sentiment falling to its lowest level in...

Nov 30 2017 | Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 4 pages

PMI surveys should underline strength of European economy

German GDP and euro area PMI surveys released this morning will underline the robust health of the European economy. Meanwhile, yesterday’s UK Budget saw the Office for Budgetary...

Nov 23 2017 | Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 4 pages

UK Budget: OBR does not save “Spreadsheet Phil”

In a statement peppered with small announcements, the key takeaway from today’s UK Budget is the pessimistic new growth forecasts from the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR),...

Nov 22 2017 | David McNamara , Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 8 pages

Public finances give some comfort ahead of tough UK Budget

One bright spot for the Chancellor ahead of a tough Budget is the outperformance of the public finances. Today’s October data are expected to see borrowing down 7% year-to-date...

Nov 21 2017 | David McNamara | Research Report | 4 pages

Little room for manoeuver in Wednesday’s UK Budget

UK Chancellor for the Exchequer Phillip Hammond unveils his new Budget on Wednesday, November 22nd. However, with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) likely to revise down its...

Nov 20 2017 | Conall MacCoille | Research Report | 4 pages

Showing 1 - 10 of 96 stories

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

December 18 2017

  • EU : CPI core, November

December 19 2017

  • EU : Construction output, October
  • GER : IFO business climate, December
  • GER : IFO current assessment, December
  • GER : IFO expectations, December
  • US : Building permits, November
  • US : Housing starts, November
  • US : Building permits, November

December 20 2017

  • EU : ECB current account SA, October
  • US : Existing home sales, November
  • US : Existing home sales. November

December 21 2017

  • EU : Consumer confidence, December
  • IRE : Overseas travel, September - November
  • IRE : Wholesale price index, December
  • US : Initial jobless claims, December 16
  • US : GDP annualized, Q3

December 22 2017

  • UK : Total business investment, Q3
  • US : Durable goods orders, November
  • US : PCE core, November
  • US : University of Michigan sentiment, December
  • US : New home sales, November
  • Us : Personal spending, November

December 26 2017

  • IRE : Retail Sales, November
  • IRE : Retail Sales, November

December 27 2017

  • US : Conference board consumer confidience, December

December 28 2017

  • EU : ECB publishes economic bulletin
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