UK Economy
UK PMI surveys point to recession in H2 2023
Last week’s flash UK composite PMI at 46.8 in September shows the clear risk of recession in H2 2023, on past form consistent with a 0.4% quarterly fall in GDP. Worryingly, the PMI...
Bank of England holds rates at 5.25%
Yesterday’s (September 21st) surprise decision to hold rates at 5.25% could well reflect that the Bank of England had seen a preview of today’s PMI surveys for September. Today’s...
UK CPI inflation shows surprise fall to 6.7% in August
Markets have pared back their bets that the Bank of England will raise interest rates tomorrow (September 21st), sterling is under pressure, following this morning’s CPI inflation data...
UK GDP contracts 0.5% in July
This morning's data showing that UK GDP contracted by 0.5% in July reverses the sharp 0.5% gain in June. Overall, the UK economy has effectively flatlined over the past three months....
Signs that UK labour market is faltering won’t stop Bank of England hiking to 5.5%
This morning’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) shows UK employment down 207,000 (or 0.6%) in the three months to July, accompanied by a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Total (8.5%)...
KPMG/REC report points to UK labour market cooling rapidly
This morning’s KPMG/REC report on the UK labour market paints a grim picture, showing the sharpest contraction in permanent hires in three years. REC cautioned that August is...
UK public finances continue to outperform
This morning’s UK public finance figures show borrowing now £11bn below official forecasts in the first four months of the Budget year 2023/24. This could raise expectations for income...
Rightmove asking price inflation turns negative in August
This morning’s Rightmove data show a sharp 1.9% decline in UK asking prices on residential property to £364,895. This is the sharpest monthly decline in August since 2018. Annual inflation...
UK retail sales volumes see sharp 1.2% drop in July
The unseasonably wet weather means it is difficult to put too much weight on this morning’s data showing that UK retail sales volumes fell by 1.2% in July following three consecutive...
UK CPI inflation ahead of expectations in July
Although falling to 6.8% in July, a 17-month low, this morning’s UK CPI inflation figures are a little ahead of market expectations. The decline from 7.9% in June was anticipated, largely...
