UK Economy
Revisions imply downside risks to 2026 UK GDP growth
This morning’s UK GDP revisions show an unchanged pace of quarterly growth in Q1 2026, but downward revisions to Q3 and Q4 2025 mean a lower annual pace of 0.9% to begin this year....
Bank Rate held at 3.75% with little update to forward guidance
Despite this week’s deal between Iran and the US, rate setters at the Bank of England (BoE) are content to retain a wait-and-see outlook before committing firmly to any change in...
Another dovish inflation result in May undershoots forecasts
May’s undershoot for UK inflation supports our view early last month that the Bank of England (BoE) should not increase Bank Rate this year. Relative to its latest (April) projection,...
April inflation hits our forecast for another dovish surprise
April’s inflation fell to 2.8%, below consensus and matching our forecast. Core inflation also declined to 2.5%, with services inflation down to 3.2%. The results follow yesterday’s (May...
UK growth picked up in Q1 after Budget-driven weakness in Q4
The UK economy was stronger than expected in March, and after some downward revision to February’s result, Q1 growth was in line with consensus. This resilience is encouraging despite...
Escaping two lost decades
May 06 2026 07:00 IST/BST
Inflation meets consensus in March before likely falls in April
UK consumer price inflation (CPI) was in line with consensus for March, and slightly below consensus for core inflation. While services inflation remains higher than the Bank of England...
UK economic growth far above expectations in February
UK gross domestic product (GDP) was far stronger than expected in February. While some elements of the results look noisy, especially construction which jumped 1% on the month despite...
Services inflation in February came in above expectations
This morning’s UK inflation result for February was always likely to be discounted by markets given it reflects the economy prior to the ongoing Middle East conflict. However, the...
More rate cuts likely after the UK economy weakened in Q4
This morning’s GDP data for the UK paint a similar picture to the prior year, with growth in the first half considerably stronger than in the second half of the year. The Q4 result was...
