UK Economy

Muted market reaction to EU rejection of Chequers proposals

Global equity markets continued to rally Thursday, the S&P 500 up 0.8% and Euro STOXX 50 by 1%, with investors shrugging off concerns on the threat of a US/China trade war, and...

IMF warns against no-deal Brexit

Yesterday the IMF unveiled its latest forecasts for the UK economy for 1.5% GDP growth in 2018 and 2019 but with a significantly worse outcome in a no-deal Brexit. The warning precedes...

Bank of England and ECB meetings provide few surprises

There were few surprises from the Bank of England and ECB policy meetings yesterday, both noting the risks from protectionist trade measures and emerging markets. The ECB pared...

Bond yields up as evidence of pay pressures grow

Bond yields moved higher yesterday, led by US treasuries after a strong Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed vacancies rising to 7m and the quit rate at its...

Sterling gains on conciliatory Barnier comments

Sterling pushed through 89p against the euro on Monday after Michel Barnier commented that a withdrawal agreement is a realistic possibility over the next 6-8 weeks. Also, the monthly...

Brexit concerns push sterling back to 90p against the euro

Sterling depreciated back above 90p against the euro on Monday following Michel Barnier’s comments opposing Theresa May’s Chequers proposals. Speculation on a fresh leadership...

Brexit uncertainties starting to weigh on Irish business confidence

Bank of Ireland’s Economic Pulse for August, released overnight, has fallen to its lowest level in 2018. Sterling’s depreciation and Brexit concerns were the key factors hurting...

No deal Brexit guidelines push sterling above 90p against the euro

Despite a lacklustre euro area PMI survey on Thursday, sterling depreciated against the euro, with the exchange rate rising above 90p after the UK government published guidelines for...

Fed minutes point to September rate hike

The dollar has rallied overnight, now trading at $1.157 against the euro, after the Fed’s last policy meeting minutes pointed to a rate hike in September – now priced in with a 92%...

Surveys bode well for UK growth in Q3

Yesterday’s CBI industrial trends survey suggests that the UK manufacturing sector continues to benefit from a tailwind from the currency which, allied to the positive news on the...