UK Economy

RICS survey still points to buoyant house price inflation

This morning’s Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey shows the UK housing market clearly suffering a hangover from the end of the stamp duty holiday in terms of...

UK labour market grinds tighter in August

This morning’s data show the UK labour market continuing to tighten in August, the pace of jobs growth picking up, unemployment falling to 4.5%, vacancies hitting a fresh record high of...

UK jobs furlough scheme ends today

The end of the UK jobs furlough scheme today, which still supported 1.6m workers at end-July, could result in unemployment rising well above the current 4.6% rate. Volatile labour market...

UK fiscal stance could soon prove to be drag on growth

This morning’s UK public sector finances show borrowing was £20.5bn in August, almost 1% of GDP in just one month. Although, borrowing in the first half of the budget year 2021/22 is...

Rightmove data point to cooling UK house prices

This morning’s Rightmove data point to UK house price inflation cooling off – asking prices were flat over the past two months and there was a 14% rise in the number of properties...

Divergence in US and UK retail sales

US consumer spending is proving more resilient than expected, with retail sales +0.7% in August, reversing July’s 1.8% decline. UK retail sales, in contrast, declined 0.9% in August (0.5%...

PMI surveys show capacity pressures limiting pace of recovery

Yesterday’s flash UK composite PMI for August at 55.3 suggests that GDP growth in Q3 2021 may fall short of the 1.8% we had forecast, instead likely to be in the 0.5-1.0% range....

UK retail sales see surprise contraction in July

UK consumer spending rebounded faster than other countries, up 7% in Q2, after the retail sector re-opened in April. Retail sales volumes in Q2 2021 were 9% higher than pre-pandemic...

UK CPI inflation falls back to 2% in July

This morning’s UK CPI inflation release has taken markets by surprise, falling to 2.0% in July from 2.5% in June. This looks like a blip, related to base effects and a methodological change...

UK GDP rebounds by 4.8% in 2021

This morning’s UK GDP data show a 4.8% rebound in Q2 2021, a little shy of expectations. However, GDP rose by 1% in June, suggesting the rebound from COVID-19 restrictions continued...