DAVY VIEW

Corporation tax continued its year-to-date pattern of extreme volatility in June, more than compensating for weaker receipts in May. This augurs well for full-year 2025 receipts since June and November – the two main months for business tax receipts – represent most companies with December financial year-ends. While we think a modest softening of momentum in wider economic activity took place in Q2 based on non-corporation taxes, albeit H1 growth remained strong at 6.4%.