Irish Economy
Population hit 5.53m in 2026, close to our 5.54m forecast
Population and migration data for the year to April 2026 showed a total of 5.53m, close to our forecast of 5.54m and above official forecasts ranging from 5.44m to 5.52m. Net migration...
Ireland’s population likely grew about 1.5% again in 2026
An important item in this week’s economic calendar is Ireland’s population and migration estimate for 2026. While subject to revision after next year’s Census, we see positive trends...
Q2 Labour Force Survey still at odds with hard-data indicators
Employment was subdued again in Q2 based on today’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) results. This was as we expected based on July’s unemployment rate estimate (revised up slightly today...
Reverting to our 5.5% forecast for housing price growth in 2026
We have long expected residential property prices to moderate this year from very fast gains of 7.9% for the last five years. We recently downgraded our forecast for 2026 to 4.75%...
2026 inflation is on course to undershoot most forecasts
The full print for Ireland’s inflation in July showed an overall rate in line with the flash indicator published two weeks ago. However, some revisions saw a smaller decline in energy prices...
Weak payrolls reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike
Last week’s labour market update for the US economy was quite mixed, with downward revisions to payrolls this year and a surprise decline in July. A marginally lower unemployment rate...
Economy’s strength evident in blowout tax receipts for July
The key takeaway from July's exchequer returns is ongoing real-time strength for the Irish economy into H2. The labour market remains robust, as indicated by income taxes, social...
Spending growth has matched economic growth since 2019
Recent days have seen several new reports and data releases. The Mid-Year Expenditure Report (MYER) reiterates the Government’s aim, outlined in last week’s Summer Economic...
Weak Q2 housing result driven by volatile apartments
Housing supply for Q2 was just 8.8k, well below our forecast for 11.2k. Volatile apartments explained all of this, with our forecast for 6.2k houses matching the result. We had previously...
A smaller Budget 2027 to target improved spending efficiency
Despite Ireland’s strong fiscal position, the Summer Economic Statement included a surprisingly modest €8.5bn headline amount for Budget 2027. This was in line with December’s exchequer...
