Irish Economy
Supreme Court’s tariff ruling reasserts separation of powers
The US Supreme Court decision late last week can be seen as positive for the US dollar, albeit increasing the US budget deficit is likely to provide a marginally negative impulse....
Employment growth set to beat most forecasts again in 2026
A weaker pace of survey-measured employment growth during 2025 reverted in line with our forecast for Q4 and more benign signals from monthly administrative payrolls. The unemployment...
This week’s UK data unlikely to prevent a March rate cut
The UK economy continues to exhibit disinflationary trends. The economy grew by less than expected in Q4; the labour market continues to loosen as wage growth declines rapidly; and...
December payrolls recover strongly from a soft November
Today’s employee payrolls data for December registered a strong recovery on the month after an unusually soft result for November. This is in keeping with our analysis of the revised...
Upside surprise in January payrolls after a flat 2025
Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside for January. However, in the context of a weak result in 2025 with little net jobs growth across the year, it remains unclear whether the US...
Challenges mount for an embattled UK government
Speculation has been mounting that the UK could soon have a seventh prime minister within the past decade, and GDP data out this week for Q4 is not expected to provide much by way...
Revised unemployment rate in Q4 points to faster jobs growth
This morning’s revisions to Q4 unemployment align with our view that the labour force survey has been more volatile than the actual employment situation. The pattern of the monthly...
Downside risks to our Q4 new home completions forecast
While some seasonal cooling of residential property prices is typical for November, the slowdown for Q4 so far is noteworthy given major ongoing supply constraints. A decline in...
Trump continues to “flood the zone” with instability
The current US administration’s approach is now firmly ‘America First’ away from long-held bilateral cooperation. Aside from a renewed increase in uncertainty, further EU rearmament...
Growth in payrolled employees fell back to about 2% into Q4
We have long noted the advantage of employee payrolls data over survey-based measures. That said, the data should be interpreted with an understanding that upward revisions are...
