Irish Economy
Flash business surveys for March due this week
With the war in Iran ongoing, this week’s flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) results for March will be a focus of attention as they are expected to show weaker business activity...
Population and housing up early in 2026 while exports remain flat
We highlight three early-2026 data releases covering Ireland’s continued population growth, an increase in new housing commencements and a subdued start to the year for goods...
Early signs of a moderation in 2026 residential property prices
January’s gain in residential property prices was half as big as the increase in December. This is consistent with our expectation that price increases will moderate this year given our...
Central banks meet this week amid geoeconomic uncertainty
A host of global central bank meetings this week take place against the backdrop of huge geoeconomic uncertainty owing to the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran. With broad conflict...
Sharp repricing of interest rates as energy prices spiral
Market pricing for interest rates have inflected sharply this month since US and Israel strikes began on Iran. Much will depend on the duration of the war and when the Strait of...
Supreme Court’s tariff ruling reasserts separation of powers
The US Supreme Court decision late last week can be seen as positive for the US dollar, albeit increasing the US budget deficit is likely to provide a marginally negative impulse....
Employment growth set to beat most forecasts again in 2026
A weaker pace of survey-measured employment growth during 2025 reverted in line with our forecast for Q4 and more benign signals from monthly administrative payrolls. The unemployment...
This week’s UK data unlikely to prevent a March rate cut
The UK economy continues to exhibit disinflationary trends. The economy grew by less than expected in Q4; the labour market continues to loosen as wage growth declines rapidly; and...
December payrolls recover strongly from a soft November
Today’s employee payrolls data for December registered a strong recovery on the month after an unusually soft result for November. This is in keeping with our analysis of the revised...
Upside surprise in January payrolls after a flat 2025
Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside for January. However, in the context of a weak result in 2025 with little net jobs growth across the year, it remains unclear whether the US...
