Irish Economy
Catch-up prospects for Ireland’s infrastructure shortfall
As we expected, there was little change to Ireland’s underlying per-capita infrastructure shortfall last year, which we estimate remained at about 27% compared to high-income European...
Strong payrolls and inflation imply more US rate hikes ahead
The US economy is growing strongly, and a higher Federal Funds Rate is justified by a stronger labour market and above-target inflation. For the UK, an increase to Bank Rate last...
Net financial assets are up €434bn since 2013
Several data updates for the Irish economy this week reveal a continued benign backdrop for tax receipts, the labour market and Ireland’s financial balance sheet. Deleveraging by...
Core inflation down to 2.9%, but overall inflation picked up to 4%
Ireland’s core inflation moderated to 2.9% in annual terms last month, based on this morning’s flash harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) result. This was largely due to services...
Double-digit growth in housing output in Q3
As we saw in Q2, we are encouraged to see Q3 house completions very close to our forecast. While our apartments forecast was higher than the outcome, these are inherently volatile....
UK economy growing stronger than expected this year
The UK economy has been far stronger than we and consensus expected this year. Ahead of the Budget and Bank of England (BoE) meeting next week, a number of data releases this...
Forecasts for US government debt set to top 142% of GDP
As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings take place this week in Bangkok, we expect an upward revision to the US debt ratio. Despite hopes from President Trump that inflation...
Budget 2027 forecasts remain conservative
Many measures introduced in Budget 2027 will be popular with Irish households, including new tax-efficient savings and investment accounts. However, Budget forecasts remain conservative...
Tax receipts remain well in excess of official forecasts
Tax receipts were exceptionally strong in September. While corporation tax continued to benefit from a higher rate and strong corporate profitability, non-corporation taxes also...
September payrolls rise though below consensus expectations
Despite missing consensus by 60k, the initial estimate of 29k net jobs added to payrolls in September still points to a solid, if unremarkable, US labour market in Q3. The average monthly...
