Irish Economy
Energy drives inflation to 3.4%; core inflation moderates to 3%
Similar to Spain’s result last week, Irish inflation for August was driven higher by energy prices owing to renewed US-Iran conflict. This was somewhat offset by food prices, which were...
Corporation tax set for an Apple boost in August
We expect that Ireland’s inflation rate for August likely remained at about 3%, although upside risks to this include a faster increase in energy prices. With Apple’s corporation tax due...
Waiting for “go-slow”: payroll jobs growth still strong in Q2
June’s employee payrolls show a strong and steady performance for Ireland’s labour market in Q2, unlike last week’s survey-based findings. As we noted earlier this week, the survey’s...
Population hit 5.53m in 2026, close to our 5.54m forecast
Population and migration data for the year to April 2026 showed a total of 5.53m, close to our forecast of 5.54m and above official forecasts ranging from 5.44m to 5.52m. Net migration...
Ireland’s population likely grew about 1.5% again in 2026
An important item in this week’s economic calendar is Ireland’s population and migration estimate for 2026. While subject to revision after next year’s Census, we see positive trends...
Q2 Labour Force Survey still at odds with hard-data indicators
Employment was subdued again in Q2 based on today’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) results. This was as we expected based on July’s unemployment rate estimate (revised up slightly today...
Reverting to our 5.5% forecast for housing price growth in 2026
We have long expected residential property prices to moderate this year from very fast gains of 7.9% for the last five years. We recently downgraded our forecast for 2026 to 4.75%...
2026 inflation is on course to undershoot most forecasts
The full print for Ireland’s inflation in July showed an overall rate in line with the flash indicator published two weeks ago. However, some revisions saw a smaller decline in energy prices...
Weak payrolls reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike
Last week’s labour market update for the US economy was quite mixed, with downward revisions to payrolls this year and a surprise decline in July. A marginally lower unemployment rate...
Economy’s strength evident in blowout tax receipts for July
The key takeaway from July's exchequer returns is ongoing real-time strength for the Irish economy into H2. The labour market remains robust, as indicated by income taxes, social...
