Irish Economy
Reverting to our 5.5% forecast for housing price growth in 2026
We have long expected residential property prices to moderate this year from very fast gains of 7.9% for the last five years. We recently downgraded our forecast for 2026 to 4.75%...
2026 inflation is on course to undershoot most forecasts
The full print for Ireland’s inflation in July showed an overall rate in line with the flash indicator published two weeks ago. However, some revisions saw a smaller decline in energy prices...
Weak payrolls reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike
Last week’s labour market update for the US economy was quite mixed, with downward revisions to payrolls this year and a surprise decline in July. A marginally lower unemployment rate...
Economy’s strength evident in blowout tax receipts for July
The key takeaway from July's exchequer returns is ongoing real-time strength for the Irish economy into H2. The labour market remains robust, as indicated by income taxes, social...
Spending growth has matched economic growth since 2019
Recent days have seen several new reports and data releases. The Mid-Year Expenditure Report (MYER) reiterates the Government’s aim, outlined in last week’s Summer Economic...
Weak Q2 housing result driven by volatile apartments
Housing supply for Q2 was just 8.8k, well below our forecast for 11.2k. Volatile apartments explained all of this, with our forecast for 6.2k houses matching the result. We had previously...
A smaller Budget 2027 to target improved spending efficiency
Despite Ireland’s strong fiscal position, the Summer Economic Statement included a surprisingly modest €8.5bn headline amount for Budget 2027. This was in line with December’s exchequer...
Budget 2027 headline package looks set to top €10bn
This week will see Ireland’s Budget 2027 fiscal parameters set, with a headline package of more than €10bn likely. However, we note some reasons that this amount overstates the likely...
Tech payrolls increased in May despite job-cut announcements
May employee payrolls data continued to indicate a favourable labour market for Ireland this year. At an estimated 2.61m employees – before likely upward revisions – growth looks on...
Transactions data augur well for Q2 new housing supply
An encouraging sign in today’s residential property price data was that transactions for new properties grew 19% in May. This augurs well for new housing supply in Q2. Property prices...
