Irish Economy

Hawkish comments from Fed policymakers weigh on equities

Equity indices closed down on Tuesday (August 2nd) as China/US tensions following Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan hurt risk appetite but also as US Treasury yields rose following hawkish...

Fed presses on with 75bps hike, but Powell indicates pace will slow

The Fed’s move last night (July 27th) to raise rates by 75bps to a 2.25-2.5% range was no surprise. However, US equity markets rallied following comments from Fed Chair Jay Powell that...

IMF revises down projections for global GDP growth

Yesterday (July 26th), the IMF revised down sharply April World Economic Outlook projections. It now sees just 2.9% global growth in 2022, revised down by 0.4pp, due to stronger...

Irish mortgage lending grows to €3.1bn in Q2 2022

Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) data released this morning show that mortgage lending was €3.1bn in Q2 2022, well ahead of our forecast of €2.7bn. The big surprise was...

Preliminary PMI surveys for July point to contraction in euro area

July’s preliminary PMI survey will convince many that the euro area economy faces a recession in H2 2022. The composite reading at 49.4 points to a contraction, led by the...

Bond markets still to be convinced by ECB Transmission Protection Instrument

The ECB surprised markets yesterday (July 21st) with a 0.5% hike in its key interest rates, versus the consensus for a 0.25% rise, despite being flagged to the media earlier this week...

Irish residential property market activity grows to €10.3bn in H1

We estimate that there were €10.3bn, or 28,074, residential transactions in H1 2022, up 20% and 8.5% respectively on the year and well above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. After the disruption...

ECB to follow through on 0.25% rate hike but clarity on spread fighting tool unlikely

The European Central Bank (ECB) looks set to follow through with a 25bps hike on Thursday (July 21st) and with a further 50bps still pencilled in for September. However, given the...

Irish CPI inflation 9.1% in June

Irish CPI inflation was 9.1% in June, not surprising given the flash Eurostat release indicated that HICP inflation was 9%. Worryingly, the core rate rose to 5.2% following sharp gains in...

Ireland’s First Home Scheme open for business

Yesterday (July 7th), the Irish government launched the new First Home Scheme, essentially a carbon copy of the UK’s Help-to-Buy, providing equity loans up to 30% of the purchase...