Irish Economy
This week: ECB forecasts, US payrolls revisions and UK GDP
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) meets this week and updated staff macroeconomic projections are also due. Annual revisions to US payrolls for the year to...
Consumer spending and new homes driving growth this year
Macroeconomic data released this week are consistent with our long-standing view that the Irish economy is growing strongly this year. The most reliable gauge of consumer spending...
Population meets our forecast; well above official projections
Ireland’s population rose 1.5% in the year to April 2025, reaching 5.46m and matching our long-standing forecast. The result is above the baseline post-Census 2022 projection of 1.3%...
Ireland’s 2025 population data highlight a quiet week
August ends with a relatively quiet week, with limited top-tier data releases scheduled. We expect Ireland’s population and migration data for 2025 will show a population of 5.46m, or a...
Irish goods exports fell in June; previewing a busy week ahead
While last week’s data showed a fall in goods exports in June, we again note the limits of these data for understanding the real Irish economy; Q2’s increase in employee payrolls growth...
Payrolls data point to ongoing strong job creation this year
Despite last week’s upward revisions to the unemployment rate, the latest employee payrolls data for June suggest continued strength for Ireland’s labour market in 2025. With typical...
Despite revised jobs data, Ireland remains fully employed
Ireland’s monthly unemployment rate was revised considerably higher last week. Similar revisions have taken place in recent years however, and we note two likely statistical drivers for...
Consumers keep spending as corporation tax spikes again
The latest monthly data for June (monthly card payments) and July (exchequer returns) were published yesterday (August 6th). The card payments data point to a continued strong...
Bank Rate to be cut this week despite above-target inflation
A busy data schedule last week ended with an ‘August surprise’. Large downward revisions to US nonfarm payrolls data were followed by President Trump firing the head of the Bureau...
US-EU tariff deal does not alter our Irish economy outlook
A number of details about yesterday’s 15% tariff deal between the US and EU remain unclear. However, despite the inclusion of pharmaceuticals (other than some chemicals and generics)...
