Irish Economy
Politics tracker: Leo’s exit alters little on election timing
A new Taoiseach (Prime Minister) should not materially change the prevailing political dynamics in Ireland. The immediate focus across the political spectrum will be European and local...
Politics tracker
The outcome of the next election is now far from certain. While Sinn Féin remains in pole position to form a government, the rise in support for independents in recent months will make...
Budget 2024 announces €14bn package
The €14bn (2.7% of GDP) Budget package announced today is broadly in line with expectations. Core public spending will rise sharply, by 6.1% in 2024, as expenditure on health, housing,...
Irish Services PMI falls to 54.5 in September
This morning’s Irish Services PMI at 54.5 in September is the weakest reading since January, but still points to a solid pace of growth and compares favourably to the flash euro area...
New Irish economic forecasts
We have revised down our forecast for Irish GDP growth to 3% in 2023 due to poor out-turns in H1, mainly reflecting a very specific issue relating to the export of semi-conductors....
Politics: mapping change into 2024
Opinion polls, showing relatively consistent trends in recent years, point to Sinn Féin being the largest party following the next general election. However, while Sinn Féin has a large lead...
MyHome Property Report, Q3 2023
This quarter’s MyHome report shows asking prices up a solid 0.6% in Q3 2023, with annual inflation accelerating to 4.1%. This is consistent with our view that 2023 would be a year of two...
Irish core retail sales volumes bounce back in August
Irish core retail sales bounced back by 2.3% in August after a 3.8% fall in July, which may in part have reflected the unusually poor weather reducing footfall. Hence, there are sharp...
Equity markets under pressure as investors price in official rates being ‘higher for longer’
Equity markets saw significant losses on Tuesday (September 26th) as investors continued to price in the Fed’s hawkish ‘higher-for-longer’ view on official rates. Also, a poor US...
Threat of recession pushes euro to weakest level since March
European equity markets and the euro struggled on Monday as concerns regarding the Chinese property and construction sectors grew and investors remained fearful of a fresh...