Irish Economy
Markets pricing in further rate cuts on Trump tariff newsflow
A busy weekend of tariff-related newsflow from the US has culminated in market pricing of an additional rate cut this year in both the UK and euro area. Since this is despite ongoing...
Euro area and US interest rate decisions due this week
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut the deposit rate by 25bps to 2.75% on Thursday. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal funds rate on...
Volatile apartments drag down new housing output in 2024
An expected pick-up in housing output in Q4 last year failed to materialise, mainly due to weaker apartment completions which can be volatile. Despite this, we continue to project a...
New housing completions data for Q4 due on Thursday
In a quieter week for data releases, our focus is on Q4 new housing completions data for Ireland. Residential property prices for November are also due, and we expect to see an...
New coalition targets 300,000 jobs and new homes by 2030
The major focus of the draft Programme for Government is on infrastructure delivery, and this is welcome given Ireland's large shortfalls. The key number in the 162-page document is...
Consumer prices data for December in focus this week
The main data releases of note this week are consumer prices for December. UK services inflation continues to be important for the Bank of England’s scope for cutting bank rate, and...
December exchequer returns in focus this week
The first full week of the new year begins today with December’s exchequer returns. Other notable data releases this week include flash inflation for the Euro area and US labour...
UK growth weakens into 2025
Interest rate decisions in the US and the UK are the main event this week. The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25bps, while the Bank of England is set to keep rates...
New forecasts: strong economic growth set to continue despite downside risks
We are updating our economic forecasts for 2025 and extending the horizon out to 2026. Available details for this year indicate that growth momentum has picked up, helped by rising...
Budget stimulus obscured by Apple back-taxes in November
The November exchequer returns are heavily affected by the receipt of back-taxes from Apple. Beneath the surface however, the fiscal stimulus from Budget 2025 is evident. November...