Irish Economy
A key week for Ireland’s most reliable economic indicators
This week will see an update to Ireland’s national accounts for 2025. We expect upside risks will materialise to our above-consensus forecasts for economic activity, with consumer...
Ireland’s labour market stayed robust once again into Q2
Despite a weak labour force survey result in Q1 and a downbeat external environment, the most reliable measure of Ireland’s labour market remained strong into Q2. We estimate employee...
Starmer expected to announce his plans for resignation
After the Federal Reserve and Bank of England both held rates unchanged last week along with a busy release calendar, there is a relatively quiet data schedule for the week ahead...
Andy Burnham slightly ahead in Makerfield by-election polls
This week includes interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh) and the Bank of England (BoE); no change in rates is expected for either....
May inflation moderates, but a pick-up is likely into summer
Headline inflation moderated to 3.5% this month, in line with our latest forecast. However, core inflation was faster than we expected at 2.8%, mainly as a result of services inflation –...
US household spending in a precarious position into Q2
Ireland’s flash inflation reading for May is due later this week, and we expect it to moderate to 3.5%. This is based on energy inflation remaining high, an increase in food inflation and...
A pivotal week ahead for the Bank of England
With a challenging political backdrop for gilts at present, we continue to see UK rate-hike expectations as overdone. If this week’s UK labour market and consumer prices data remain in...
Payrolls growth faster in higher-wage sectors, unlike US and UK
We estimate that Ireland’s employee payrolls annual growth picked up to 2.7% in Q1. The increase was broadly based and suggests the economy is on course to grow rapidly again this...
US payrolls beat expectations as Q1 corporate earnings soar
Last week’s US nonfarm payrolls for April exceeded expectations, and we note that Q1 corporate earnings have also been exceptionally strong. For the UK, while Labour’s weak local...
Steady underlying growth in April despite more tax volatility
An unusual upside surprise to corporation tax last month could reflect early payment of top-up taxes due from the middle of this year given very few companies are typically liable in...
