Irish Economy
Downside risks to our Q4 new home completions forecast
While some seasonal cooling of residential property prices is typical for November, the slowdown for Q4 so far is noteworthy given major ongoing supply constraints. A decline in...
Trump continues to “flood the zone” with instability
The current US administration’s approach is now firmly ‘America First’ away from long-held bilateral cooperation. Aside from a renewed increase in uncertainty, further EU rearmament...
Growth in payrolled employees fell back to about 2% into Q4
We have long noted the advantage of employee payrolls data over survey-based measures. That said, the data should be interpreted with an understanding that upward revisions are...
A need for higher housing starts to be the “new normal”
The Department of Housing has published housing starts data for December. While the 2025 total was disappointing at 16k, December’s 3k was by far the highest figure all year, and...
Trump’s increasingly erratic and unpopular policies
The main data releases of note for the week ahead include US consumer prices for December, UK GDP and Irish employee payrolls for November. President Trump’s increasingly erratic...
US economy added just 12k net new jobs a month since April
US payrolls data for December released this afternoon point to a broadly stable labour market into the end of the year, aligning in broad terms with other recent data. However, the...
December’s exchequer returns due this week
The Irish Government published its long-delayed medium-term fiscal plan last month, aiming to slow current spending growth to 5.9% a year, down from more than 7.5% a year since 2019....
Property prices decelerated in October; monthly services prices fell in November
Ireland’s residential property prices decelerated on the month in October but remain up strongly by 7.3% in annual terms. While growth in the volume of transactions was relatively muted,...
New forecasts: risks are tilted to the upside of consensus
For Ireland and the global economy more broadly, 2025 has been a year characterised by economic resilience to disruptive trade developments and geopolitical tensions. An important...
Last major week of economy data releases of 2025
Ahead of Christmas holidays beginning next week, a number of economic data publications that would normally be released then have instead been frontloaded into this week. As a result,...
