Irish Economy
A pivotal week ahead for the Bank of England
With a challenging political backdrop for gilts at present, we continue to see UK rate-hike expectations as overdone. If this week’s UK labour market and consumer prices data remain in...
Payrolls growth faster in higher-wage sectors, unlike US and UK
We estimate that Ireland’s employee payrolls annual growth picked up to 2.7% in Q1. The increase was broadly based and suggests the economy is on course to grow rapidly again this...
US payrolls beat expectations as Q1 corporate earnings soar
Last week’s US nonfarm payrolls for April exceeded expectations, and we note that Q1 corporate earnings have also been exceptionally strong. For the UK, while Labour’s weak local...
Steady underlying growth in April despite more tax volatility
An unusual upside surprise to corporation tax last month could reflect early payment of top-up taxes due from the middle of this year given very few companies are typically liable in...
Consensus housing forecasts set to top 40k on strong Q1 data
Today’s result for Q1 housing output is encouraging. We expect the strong double-digit increase of 33% is likely to imply upgrades to the consensus outlook for housing delivery this...
April inflation could reach 4%
A busy week ahead sees central bank meetings take centre stage. We think an increase in euro area rates this year is more likely than for the Bank of England, where pay growth has...
Exchequer assets €25bn above official forecasts since 2018
As a key driver of likely debt issuance in future, official forecasts of the exchequer balance are an important signal for bond markets. In tandem with outperformance over the last...
Growth is still likely to exceed the latest official projections
The latest macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts by the Department of Finance remain aligned to the consensus view of slower increases in employment and economic activity. We think...
Ireland’s budget surplus is likely to exceed Budget 2026’s €5bn
The main economic news of note this week relates to the UK economy, where key updates will cover the labour market, consumer prices, government borrowing and retail sales. Higher...
A stronger labour market early in 2026 as payrolls revised up
February payrolls data were in line with our view that the labour market remained in good shape early in 2026, and from here we think it is likely to remain resilient into the summer...
