Irish Economy
Growth is still likely to exceed the latest official projections
The latest macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts by the Department of Finance remain aligned to the consensus view of slower increases in employment and economic activity. We think...
Ireland’s budget surplus is likely to exceed Budget 2026’s €5bn
The main economic news of note this week relates to the UK economy, where key updates will cover the labour market, consumer prices, government borrowing and retail sales. Higher...
A stronger labour market early in 2026 as payrolls revised up
February payrolls data were in line with our view that the labour market remained in good shape early in 2026, and from here we think it is likely to remain resilient into the summer...
Transactions for new properties grew strongly again in February
Overall residential property prices decelerated in February and look set to exceed our Q1 forecast for an annual gain of 6.4%. However, it remains early in the year and our full-year...
Weaker Q2 growth is likely due to fuel and traffic disruptions
Ongoing traffic and fuel disruptions in Ireland over the past week appear certain to reduce economic growth in the second quarter, despite the Government trebling its package of...
A focus on euro area inflation signals in March
This week’s March inflation data for the euro area will be watched closely for preliminary impacts of the ongoing war in the Middle East. Late last week, Spain’s inflation picked up to...
Flash business surveys for March due this week
With the war in Iran ongoing, this week’s flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) results for March will be a focus of attention as they are expected to show weaker business activity...
Population and housing up early in 2026 while exports remain flat
We highlight three early-2026 data releases covering Ireland’s continued population growth, an increase in new housing commencements and a subdued start to the year for goods...
Early signs of a moderation in 2026 residential property prices
January’s gain in residential property prices was half as big as the increase in December. This is consistent with our expectation that price increases will moderate this year given our...
Central banks meet this week amid geoeconomic uncertainty
A host of global central bank meetings this week take place against the backdrop of huge geoeconomic uncertainty owing to the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran. With broad conflict...
