Irish Economy
Spending growth has matched economic growth since 2019
Recent days have seen several new reports and data releases. The Mid-Year Expenditure Report (MYER) reiterates the Government’s aim, outlined in last week’s Summer Economic...
Weak Q2 housing result driven by volatile apartments
Housing supply for Q2 was just 8.8k, well below our forecast for 11.2k. Volatile apartments explained all of this, with our forecast for 6.2k houses matching the result. We had previously...
A smaller Budget 2027 to target improved spending efficiency
Despite Ireland’s strong fiscal position, the Summer Economic Statement included a surprisingly modest €8.5bn headline amount for Budget 2027. This was in line with December’s exchequer...
Budget 2027 headline package looks set to top €10bn
This week will see Ireland’s Budget 2027 fiscal parameters set, with a headline package of more than €10bn likely. However, we note some reasons that this amount overstates the likely...
Tech payrolls increased in May despite job-cut announcements
May employee payrolls data continued to indicate a favourable labour market for Ireland this year. At an estimated 2.61m employees – before likely upward revisions – growth looks on...
Transactions data augur well for Q2 new housing supply
An encouraging sign in today’s residential property price data was that transactions for new properties grew 19% in May. This augurs well for new housing supply in Q2. Property prices...
Moderating property price growth of c.6% is likely in May
After a relatively quiet week of economic data releases last week, this week sees May residential property prices and employee payrolls data due for Ireland. US consumer and producer...
Ireland’s economic growth continues to outperform
In line with our expectations, the Irish economy continues to grow above consensus. We have revised down our forecast for housing supply to 44k next year and progress appears...
Inflation moderated in June despite services acceleration
June’s flash inflation reading was 3.3% in annual terms, above our forecast of 3.1% but still a moderation from 3.5% in May and 3.6% in the previous two months. Energy prices declined...
A key week for Ireland’s most reliable economic indicators
This week will see an update to Ireland’s national accounts for 2025. We expect upside risks will materialise to our above-consensus forecasts for economic activity, with consumer...
