Irish Economic Indicators
Jobs growth of about 2.5% in December and January
We continue to look through November’s surprisingly weak payrolls result and note that December and January payrolls, with typical revisions factored in, grew by about 2.5% in annual...
Q4 national accounts show strong economic growth in 2025
The quarterly national accounts for Q4 2025 are consistent with our long-standing view that the Irish economy remains in a high-growth phase, despite high global uncertainty. Consumer...
Labour market remains robust based on latest exchequer data
February’s exchequer returns showed a strong rebound in non-corporation tax growth, driven by income tax, albeit this came after a soft result in January. However, we point to new...
December property prices up 7%; volumes jumped 15%
Residential property prices grew strongly again in 2025, increasing by 7.5% compared to 2024. This was an unsurprising result given Ireland’s large shortfall of housing and continued...
Taxes are still likely to exceed official forecasts this year
Exchequer returns for January showed a slowdown in core tax receipts. However, the 2025 results exceeded Budget 2026 forecasts, and tax receipts this year would now need to be...
Housing output jumped 20% last year, meeting our forecast
Completions came in ahead of consensus and in line with Davy forecasts after a very strong seasonal Q4. Our approach takes the commencements profile of houses and apartments...
Exchequer returns point to a strong economy into 2026
December’s exchequer returns saw another strong increase in corporation taxes, up €1bn on the same month last year. This is very similar to the increase seen in July and the results...
Entire 2025 surplus explained by November’s corporation tax
Exactly as we forecast five months ago, November’s corporation tax reached €10bn – equivalent to the entire projected surplus this year in last month’s Budget. Strong growth for...
Q3 survey-based employment at odds with hard-data payrolls
The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed a marked slowdown in employment growth to 1.1% compared to Q3 2024. This is somewhat below our latest forecast and chimes with other...
A slowdown in economic growth into autumn is evident
October’s exchequer returns were once again characterised by strong corporation taxes and weaker tax receipts elsewhere, albeit income tax recovered somewhat from an especially...
