Irish Economic Indicators
Volatile labour force survey at odds with steady payroll gains
We have noted for some time increased uncertainty surrounding the official labour market data, which have been volatile and difficult to interpret due to base effects. The latest Q1...
First-time buyer activity grew strongly again in March
One takeaway from today’s residential property price data for March is the continued strong growth in first-time buyer (FTB) transactions in March. This aligns with a key message...
Resilient Irish economy in March despite high global uncertainty
The latest exchequer returns for March and card payments data for February align with our view that the Irish economy began 2026 in good shape. We think an inflation boost to tax...
Jobs growth of about 2.5% in December and January
We continue to look through November’s surprisingly weak payrolls result and note that December and January payrolls, with typical revisions factored in, grew by about 2.5% in annual...
Q4 national accounts show strong economic growth in 2025
The quarterly national accounts for Q4 2025 are consistent with our long-standing view that the Irish economy remains in a high-growth phase, despite high global uncertainty. Consumer...
Labour market remains robust based on latest exchequer data
February’s exchequer returns showed a strong rebound in non-corporation tax growth, driven by income tax, albeit this came after a soft result in January. However, we point to new...
December property prices up 7%; volumes jumped 15%
Residential property prices grew strongly again in 2025, increasing by 7.5% compared to 2024. This was an unsurprising result given Ireland’s large shortfall of housing and continued...
Taxes are still likely to exceed official forecasts this year
Exchequer returns for January showed a slowdown in core tax receipts. However, the 2025 results exceeded Budget 2026 forecasts, and tax receipts this year would now need to be...
Housing output jumped 20% last year, meeting our forecast
Completions came in ahead of consensus and in line with Davy forecasts after a very strong seasonal Q4. Our approach takes the commencements profile of houses and apartments...
Exchequer returns point to a strong economy into 2026
December’s exchequer returns saw another strong increase in corporation taxes, up €1bn on the same month last year. This is very similar to the increase seen in July and the results...
