DAVY VIEW

The latest monthly data for June (monthly card payments) and July (exchequer returns) were published yesterday (August 6th). The card payments data point to a continued strong increase in consumer spending in 2025. However, the latest value added tax (VAT) data grew less rapidly. We think this is likely to reflect timing factors as well as some increases in consumer spending abroad. Corporation tax jumped again in July, up 234% compared to the previous year, underpinning our forecast for a large budget surplus again this year.