DAVY VIEW

A busy data schedule last week ended with an ‘August surprise’. Large downward revisions to US nonfarm payrolls data were followed by President Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This week, the main focus is on the Bank of England’s widely expected cut to Bank Rate and update of macroeconomic forecasts. Market pricing also shows a further cut before year-end despite above-target inflation and rapid wage increases. However, our view remains that just one cut will take place in H2. For Ireland, the main data releases this week are July’s exchequer returns and monthly card payments data for June.