Davy Research

Market Comment

February retail sales key barometer of UK consumer

DAVY VIEW

This morning’s UK retail sales for February are expected to bounce back following three straight months of decline. The data will provide a key barometer of consumer spending in Q1, with surveys suggesting that growth has begun to soften and that households are moving away from discretionary spending as inflation erodes spending power. In our latest UK forecasts, we expect consumer spending to slow markedly from 3% in 2016 to 1.4% in 2017 as real wages fall and the labour market softens.

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