Davy Research

Market comment

Slowest rise in UK population in 13 years as EU migration flows collapse

DAVY VIEW

UK labour market data for June were a mixed bag. Despite a fall in the unemployment rate to a 43-year low of 4%, employment growth slowed to 1% and average earnings growth to 2.4%. Meanwhile, new Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates indicated that a collapse in net inward migration from EU countries led to the slowest rise in the UK population in 13 years in 2017. We expect today’s CPI inflation rate for July will remain at 2.4%, below the consensus of 2.5%.

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