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The Davy Digest

US inflation easing?

17 August, 2026

Beyond words goes here

Portrait of Paul Nicholson, smiling

Paul Nicholson

Head of Investment Strategy

Portrait of Stephen Grissing, smiling

Stephen Grissing

Investment Strategist

Portrait of Scott McElhinney, smiling

Scott McElhinney

Investment Strategist

US equities edged higher last week as US CPI eased from 3.5% in June to 3.4% in July, in line with expectations. US retail spending, despite an annual increase, fell month-on-month for July by 0.6%. This is in line with a deterioration of the Consumer Sentiment Index for August which fell sharply from 55.2 in July to 51.0 in August.

It was a positive week in the UK as preliminary GDP figures for Q2 showed 0.4% quarterly growth. UK Equities have bounced back to pre-Iran War levels in recent weeks. Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged but emphasised that they will act if needed to control inflation. India’s July CPI rose to 4.45% year-on-year from 4.38% in June, driven mostly by food inflation. 

Looking ahead to this week, minutes from the latest FOMC Meeting will be released on Wednesday while S&P Global flash PMIs are due out on Friday. Investors in the Eurozone will also receive PMIs on Friday. In the UK, investors will be watching inflation and labour market data.

Chart of the moment - Eclipsing Expectations

The chart shows consensus estimates for S&P 500 earnings per share.

Source: Bloomberg as of 12/08/2026. The chart shows consensus estimates for S&P 500 earnings per share. 

  • S&P 500 earnings are continuing to grow as companies are consistently beating estimates by increasingly wide margins. 

  • Most companies have now reported with ~86% beating EPS estimates for Q2, above the 5-year average. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings 29.2% above expectations.

  • Earnings growth is being driven by the AI investment cycle, resilient consumer demand, and ongoing corporate productivity gains.

Warning: The information in this article is not a recommendation or investment research. It does not purport to be financial advice and does not take into account the investment objectives, knowledge and experience or financial situation of any particular person. There is no guarantee that by putting a financial or investment plan in place, you will meet your objectives. You should speak to your advisor, in the context of your own personal circumstances, prior to making any financial or investment decision. 

Warning: Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your investment may go down as well as up.