Kingspan Group

A long way to go and much to play for

What is essential to evaluate with Kingspan is not just where the group is but where it is going. In this regard, the direction of travel remains exciting and we believe this is a journey...

DS Smith

Previewing March 6th update and potential Mondi merger

On March 6th, DS Smith will issue a Q3 FY24E update on trading from its December 2023 interim results to date. We expect DS Smith will (1) return to c.2% organic box volume growth in...

Mondi

Positive outlook supports potential DS Smith merger

While Mondi 2023 EBITDA fell 35% year-on-year (yoy) to €1.2bn, with improving orderbooks, Mondi targets 2024E packaging price increases. Our unchanged €1.15bn 2024E EBITDA sits in-line...

Irish economy

Politics tracker

The outcome of the next election is now far from certain. While Sinn Féin remains in pole position to form a government, the rise in support for independents in recent months will make...

UPM

Cautious outlook

On February 1st, UPM cautioned on 2024E outlook due to (1) slower-than-expected ramp-up of its new Uruguay pulp mill and (2) weak label, plywood and biofuels demand/pricing....

Stora Enso

No quick fixes

With Q4 2023 results on February 1st, Stora Enso cautioned on weak 2024E (1) packaging and (2) wood product demand. Our updated Stora Enso €0.5bn 2024E operational EBIT sits 10%...

XP Power

Destocking body blow

XP Power (XPP) issued an ad-hoc trading update on February 16th, two weeks before its FY23 preliminary results. While the order intake in January looks in-line with our estimates, the...

Paper & packaging

400p DS Smith offer gives 15% Mondi EPS accretion

Mondi has confirmed merger discussions with packaging peer DS Smith. With Mondi trading at over a 60% CY24E P/E premium to DS Smith, our merger analysis (see page 4) indicates that...

Smurfit Kappa Group

Return to box growth; Westrock merger on track

While Smurfit Kappa Group’s (SKG) €2.08bn 2023 EBITDA was a modest 1% consensus beat, in 2024 year-to-date (yd.), the company saw a return to +3% European box demand growth,...

Kingspan Group

Resilience in 2023 augurs well for the future

Results for 2023 will close out another creditable year for Kingspan. A first full year for the Roofing + Waterproofing division, the announced investment in Steico as well as other...