The Davy Digest - 16th February 2026

US data releases were in focus last week, as employment and inflation figures were finally released following a brief government shutdown-related delay. The US economy added 130k jobs in January, beating the 65k forecast, with the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.3%. On Friday, the Consumer Price Index print showed that price pressures eased with the headline figure falling to 2.4% year-on-year from 2.7% in December. Core goods prices continued to ease, while shelter inflation also slowed. US retail sales for December were flat, coming in below consensus as consumers cut back on big ticket items. In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde said she expects Eurozone inflation to stabilise at 2% in the medium term after it slipped to 1.7% in January. UK data disappointed – Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew just 0.1% in Q4 2025 alongside an unexpected decline in industrial production in December. In China, inflation slowed to 0.2% year-on-year in January, prompting officials to signal further measures to boost domestic demand.

Last week's highlights

	January Retail Sales (10/02) – Unexpectedly flat in December. January Jobs Report (11/02) – Stronger than expected (130k vs 65k forecast), unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. January Consumer Price Index (13/02) – Inflation slowed to 2.4% YoY
	Lagarde Speech (09/02) – Lagarde is expecting inflation in the Eurozone to stabilise at 2% in the medium term, following its decline below the target level this year.
	Gross Domestic Product (12/02) - UK economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 2025, below expectations.  Industrial Production (12/02) - Unexpectedly fell 0.9% month-on-month in December 2025, below market expectations of a flat reading.
	China Inflation (10/02) - Consumer price index slowed to 0.2% year on year in January.

Looking ahead to this week, investors will receive the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting, with markets still expecting two rate cuts in 2026. Key US data releases include the Fed’s preferred inflation measure –  core PCE – on Friday, along with Q4 GDP. In Europe, German inflation data will be published on Tuesday. In the UK, both inflation and unemployment numbers are due out, with price pressures expected to ease into spring and summer towards the Bank of England’s 2% target. In New Zealand, the central bank meets on Wednesday and is expected to leave rates unchanged.

What's on the radar

	Fed Meeting Minutes (18/02) US Core PCE Price Index (20/02) US Q4 GDP (20/02)
	German Inflation (17/02)
	UK Unemployment Rate (17/02) UK Inflation (18/02)
	Chinese New Year (17/02) New Zealand Central Bank Meeting (18/02)

Chart of the moment - Labour of love

Source: Bloomberg, February 13th 2026. Prime-age employment measures the ratio of employment to population between the ages of 25-54.

• The US jobs report for January was stronger than expected, providing further evidence of an ongoing recovery in the labour market.
• The prime-age employment ratio – which measures the number of workers aged 25 to 54 who are currently employed – increased to 80.9%. This marked its highest level since 2024 and brought it in line with a 25-year high.
• Although shifting population and immigration dynamics have buoyed the figure over the last year, underlying job creation has now started to show signs of strength.