The Davy Digest - 15th December 2025

US equities hit new all-time highs last week, supported by the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, officials noted that “downside risks to employment rose in recent months” and that inflation remains “somewhat elevated.” On the data front, US job openings increased by 12k to 7.67m in October after surging in September. In Europe, Germany's industrial output increased by 1.8% in October, beating forecasts. The increase was mainly driven by the construction sector. In the UK, industrial production grew 1.1% year over year in October, slightly below estimates. Meanwhile, Chinese consumer prices rose 0.7% year over year, the highest since February 2024 – higher food prices contributed to the rise. Finally, the Central Bank of Brazil decided to leave rates unchanged at 15% as expected.

Last week's highlights

	October Job Openings (09/12) – US job openings increased 12k to 7.67m in October after surging in September.  Federal Reserve Meeting (10/12) – Cut interest rates by 25bps as expected, officials noted that “downside risks to employment rose in recent months” and that inflation remains “somewhat elevated”.
	Germany October Industrial Production (12/12) - Germany's industrial output increased by 1.8% in October, beating forecasts. The increase was mainly driven by the construction sector.
	UK Industrial Production (12/12) - Increased 1.1% year over year in October, slightly below estimates.
	China Inflation (10/12) – Consumer prices rose 0.7% year over year, the highest since February 2024. Central Bank of Brazil Meeting (10/12) – Left rates unchanged at 15% as expected.

This week is a bumper week for central bank meetings with the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BOE), Bank of Japan, Norges Bank, Swedish Central Bank and the Bank of Mexico all due to meet. In the US, the headline event will be the release of US inflation figures for November. Investors in the US will also receive data on retail sales and the unemployment rate. In Europe, the ECB are expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday. Eurozone inflation figures for November will be released on Wednesday. In the UK, the Bank of England are expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points amid easing inflation and lacklustre growth. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan are expected to hike rates due to strong wage growth and persistent price pressures.

What's on the radar

	US Retail Sales (16/12) US Unemployment Rate (16/12) US Inflation (CPI) (18/12)
	Eurozone Inflation (CPI) (17/12) ECB Meeting (18/12) Norges Bank Meeting (18/12) Riksbank Meeting (18/12)
	UK Inflation (CPI) (17/12) Bank of England Meeting (18/12)
	Bank of Japan Meeting (18/12) Bank of Mexico Meeting (18/12)

Chart of the moment - Great expectations

Source: FactSet as of 05/12/2025. 2025 & 2026 EPS figures reflect FactSet estimates as of 04/12/2025.

• The bottom-up S&P 500 earnings per share estimate for 2026 is $309.22, implying year over year earnings growth of more than 14% - approximately double the long-term earnings growth rate.
• Over the past 25 years (2000 – 2024), industry analysts on average have overestimated the final earnings per share number by 6.2% one year in advance.
• The tech sector is forecast to lead index earnings in 2026 with 26% year over year earnings growth expected.

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