The Davy Digest - 16th March 2026

It was another turbulent week for global markets as the conflict in the Middle East continued to escalate. Attacks in the region continued, leading Brent crude oil to reach over $100 per barrel. Equity indices in both Europe and the United States fell, while bond yields continued to rise.

Last week's highlights

	US February CPI (11/03) – Remained at 2.4% YoY, in line with consensus US Core PCE Price Index (13/03) – Slowed to 2.8% YoY, below consensus JOLTS Job Openings (13/03) – Job openings above consensus at 6.95mn
	German Inflation (11/03) – Unchanged final revision at 1.9% YoY Eurozone January Industrial Production (13/03) – Fell by 1.2% YoY, below expectations
	UK BRC Retail Sales (10/03) – Slowed to 0.7% YoY, below consensus
	Japan Q4 GDP (09/03) – Economy grew by 0.3% QoQ, in line with consensus China Inflation (09/03) – Accelerated to 1.3% YoY, higher than expected

On the data front, the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) was the headline release in the US. The print was relatively benign, in line with consensus at 2.4% year-on-year, but was measured prior to the escalation in Iran. The January Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) was also released, showing an above-consensus 6.95 million job openings for the month. In Europe, industrial production figures for February were published, indicating a 1.2% decline in activity over the previous 12 months. Further afield, in Japan, Gross Domestic Product for the final quarter of 2025 was released, showing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth in the economy, in line with market expectations.

What's on the radar

	Industrial Production (16/03) Producer Price Index (17/03) Federal Reserve Meeting (18/03)
	European Central Bank Meeting (19/03) Swiss National Bank Meeting (19/03) Riksbank Meeting (19/03)
	Bank of England Meeting (19/03)
	Brazilian Central Bank Meeting (18/03) Bank of Japan Meeting (19/03)

This week, central bank meetings across the world will be in focus. The Federal Reserve will be convening, with Jerome Powell expected to leave interest rates unchanged. In Europe, the European Central Bank will also be meeting, along with the Bank of England, Riksbank, and Swiss National Bank. Additionally, there will be central bank meetings in Japan and Brazil. In the US, there will also be several data releases of note. Industrial production figures will be published on Monday, along with February’s Producer Price Index ahead of the Fed’s decision on Wednesday.

Chart of the moment - The price of the black stuff

Source: Central Statistics Office, March 2026.

• Ahead of St. Patrick’s Day, crude oil is not the only “black stuff” getting more expensive.
• According to the Central Statistics Office, the price of a pint of stout has risen by nearly 60% since the beginning of 2012.
• This has greatly outpaced the rate of inflation in the headline price index, which has risen by less than 30% over the same period.