The Davy Digest - 8th September 2025

US equities finished higher for the week as US labour market developments dominated headlines. Job openings in the US fell to a 10-month low and showed that there were more unemployed people than positions available for the first time since April 2021. Nonfarm payrolls data came out on Friday, showing that US employers added 22,000 jobs in August, well below estimates for 77,000. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7, slightly below the 49.0 forecast and still in contraction territory. Over in the Eurozone, unemployment fell to 6.2% in July from 6.3% in June. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.1% in August, higher than the 2.0% forecast. This inflation report would have been closely watched by the European Central Bank ahead of their meeting next week, with markets expecting no change in interest rates. In the UK, retail sales data for July came in higher than expected. Finally, in China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.5 in August vs 49.7 forecast, showing an unexpected return to growth in Chinese factory activity.

Last week's highlights

	ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI (02/09 & 04/09) – Manufacturing moved higher to 48.7 vs 49.0 forecast. US Labour Market Data (03/09 & 05/09) – Job openings showed more unemployed people than positions available for 1st time since 2021. Non-farm payrolls came in at 22k vs 77k forecast.
	Eurozone Unemployment (01/09) – Fell to 6.2% in July from 6.3%.  Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (01/09 & 03/09) - Rose to a 3-year high of 50.7 in August from 49.8 in July.  Eurozone Inflation (02/09) - Rose to 2.1% in August vs 2.0% forecast.
	UK Retail Sales (05/09) – Retail sales data for July came in higher than expected but figures for the first half of the year were revised downwards.
	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (01/09) – Increased to 50.5 in August vs 49.7 forecast, showing an unexpected return to growth in Chinese factory activity.

Looking ahead to this week, both the producer price index and consumer price index will be released in the US. On Friday, Michigan consumer sentiment is due out. The European Central Bank will meet on Thursday, traders are currently pricing a 33% chance of a rate cut before year end. In the UK, industrial production and manufacturing & services PMIs are due out. Meanwhile, in China, investors will be monitoring the release of data on both exports and inflation. In Brazil, inflation data will be released on Wednesday, inflation has been cooling recently, with investors expecting rate cuts within the next six months.

What's on the radar

	Producer Price Index (10/09) US Inflation (CPI) (11/09) Michigan Consumer Sentiment (12/09)
	Sentix Investor Confidence (08/09) ECB Meeting (11/09)
	UK Industrial Production (12/09) UK Manufacturing & Services PMIs (12/09)
	China Exports Data (08/09) China Inflation Rate (10/09) Brazil Inflation (10/09)

Chart of the moment - We're not hiring

Source: Bloomberg as of 05/09/2025

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