The Davy Digest - 10th November 2025

Global equities posted losses for the week as investors became concerned about valuations in the AI space, while the US government shutdown continued, becoming the longest on record. On Sunday, the Senate voted to advance a short-term funding bill that could end the 40-day government shutdown. On a positive note, ADP’s private payrolls rose by 42k in October, beating the 25k forecast, easing some concerns about labour market weakness in the US. In Europe, the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey rose to 52.5 in October from 51.2 in September, marking its 10th consecutive month of growth and reaching its highest level since May 2023. In the UK, the Bank of England left rates unchanged, with Governor Bailey emphasising the need for “further evidence” of slowing inflation before cutting again. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Brazilian Central Bank both left rates unchanged, as expected.

Last week's highlights

	ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI (03/11 & 04/11) – Manufacturing declined to 48.7, services up to 52.4.  ADP Private Payrolls (05/11) - Private sector payrolls rose 42k in October vs 25k forecast, easing labour market fears.
	HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (05/11) – Increased to 52.5 in October from 51.2.  Germany Industrial Production (06/11) – German industrial production rose less than expected in September.
	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (03/11) – Rose to a 12-month high of 49.7 in October, up from 46.2 in September.  Bank of England Meeting (06/11) – Left rates unchanged, markets are expecting a rate cut in December, Bailey wants to see “further evidence” before cutting again.
	Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (03/11) – Left rates unchanged as expected.  China Caixin Services PMI (04/11) - China's services activity expanded in October but at its slowest pace in three months.  Brazilian Central Bank Meeting (05/11) – No change in rates, policymakers say prolonged pause should lower inflation.

Looking ahead, investors are now hopeful that the US government shutdown will be resolved before the end of this week. US inflation is due out on Thursday, following the previous print of 3%. Germany will also release inflation figures during the week. In the UK, investors will receive labour market data on Tuesday, while Q3 GDP will be released on Thursday. In emerging markets, Brazilian inflation figures will be released on Tuesday, while Chinese industrial production is out on Thursday.

What's on the radar

	US Inflation (13/11) Initial Jobless Claims (13/11)
	German Inflation (12/11) Eurogroup Meetings (12/11) Eurozone Q4 GDP (14/11)
	UK Unemployment Rate (11/11) UK Q3 GDP (13/11)
	Brazil Inflation (11/11) China Industrial Production (13/11)

Chart of the moment - Closed for business

Source: US House of Representatives, September 7th 2025. *October 2025 shutdown is ongoing

• The ongoing US government shutdown has now reached 40 days, making it the longest shutdown in US history.
• It began on October 1st after congress failed to agree on a new federal budget amid disputes over healthcare subsidies for low-income households.
• The shutdown has disrupted funding for food stamps and air traffic controllers, while the release of major economic statistics – including inflation and unemployment – have been delayed.
• On Sunday, the Senate took the first step towards reaching a deal that would end the shutdown and secure funding until January.

If you would like to stay up to date on the latest macro information, subscribe to this newsletter to receive it straight to your inbox every Monday.