Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Mar 31, 2026
Bank of Ireland
Clarity provided on UK motor finance redress
The changes relative to the initial consultations on UK motor finance redress will be welcomed and should provide clarity going forward but may take a little time for impacted lenders, including Bank of Ireland (BIRG), to fully quantify. Nonetheless, we would not expect a material impact from the final scheme rules.
Irish banks
February mortgage approvals: return to solid demand
February mortgage approvals signalled robust demand following recent months of subdued activity. First-time buyers (FTBs) remained the primary driver, with mover purchase and top-up activity continuing as supportive. Looking through monthly volatility, longer-term approval trends indicate a healthy lending pipeline, reinforced by ongoing growth in housing commencements. We reiterate our mortgage drawdown forecast, with underlying trends remaining intact.
AG Barr
Strong set-up for FY27 underpins healthy medium-term guidance
AG Barr has entered FY27 with good momentum and expects to deliver double-digit % revenue growth, supported by its recently announced acquisitions. Over the medium term, AG Barr expects to deliver revenue growth of ‘≥4%’, an ambition that stands out in a more challenging growth environment. Group operating margin will remain within its guided 14-16% range, with progress supported by ongoing operational efficiencies, disciplined cost management and synergy delivery. We believe the recent share price weakness creates a favourable investment opportunity and maintain our ‘Outperform’ rating and £8.15 price target.
Irish economy
March inflation up to 3.6%, faster than our forecast
March inflation overshot our forecast for 3.1% and reached 3.6%. Faster increases in energy prices are the main factor behind this. Unlike in Spain, where March’s energy prices increased by a far smaller extent compared to the last major energy supply shock in March 2022, the increase in Ireland was of a similar magnitude to four years ago. Non-energy industrial goods prices also increased faster than we expected, while food and services prices were relatively contained. Overall, in the absence of war in the Middle East, we think that Ireland’s headline inflation would likely have declined to about 2.3% in March.
