Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Oct 13, 2026
Greencore Group
Q4 update: a further upgrade to FY26 profitability
Greencore has sustained its strong trading momentum into Q4-26, achieving +4.5% pro-forma sales growth (Davy implied: +3.6%), underpinned by +2.1% manufactured volume growth. Underlying profit momentum was ahead of expectations in Q4-26, supported by a combination of volume growth and continued efficiency-led margin improvement. Greencore now anticipates FY26 adjusted operating profit of c.£248m (previously: £234-242m, compiled consensus: £238m). Additionally, Greencore has made material progress in reducing its leverage, with net debt (ex-leases) now expected to be c.£600m (compiled consensus: c.£744m), implying a year-end leverage of 1.8x. At first look, we envisage healthy upside to our forecasts.
Bellway plc
Difficult trading conditions continue
Current trading for Bellway remains challenged. The net private reservation rate per outlet per week fell 6% year-on-year (yoy) in the period from August 1st to October 5th. The company now expects completions to decrease by roughly 5% in FY27. While the announcement of the Your First Home scheme is positive, Bellway noted that the timing of purchase decisions may be impacted prior to its launch.
Givaudan
Q3 volume-led beat; Fine Fragrance shines
Givaudan delivered Q3 like-for-like (LFL) sales growth of 8.6%, which was well ahead of expectations. Fragrance & Beauty was the standout performer with exceptional growth in Fine Fragrance. Taste & Wellbeing improved sequentially despite US weakness. We expect momentum to continue into Q4 and see modest upside risk to consensus EBITDA forecasts for 2026.
