Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Aug 20, 2026
Irish Continental Grp
Decent H1 but vulnerable to macro headwinds
ICG produced a decent H1 with EBITDA growth of 7.3%. The full effect of the macro headwinds appears to be hitting in the summer, with car and RoRo freight volumes trending down 7.9% and 9.3% respectively in H2 to date. We have consistently said that the strategic position of the company justifies a high-single- digit EV/EBITDA multiple – not double-digit as it is not a port or toll road company. This is borne out in the trading volatility, with the fuel hit and other costs needing to be absorbed as with most transport companies. The key date is August 28th 2026, when the Scheme Meetings and the Extraordinary General Meeting will take place.
Irish economy
Reverting to our 5.5% forecast for housing price growth in 2026
We have long expected residential property prices to moderate this year from very fast gains of 7.9% for the last five years. We recently downgraded our forecast for 2026 to 4.75% from 5.5%, but based on monthly gains in May and June, this now looks conservative. We therefore revert to our prior forecast of 5.5%; this still implies a far slower pace of monthly gains in H2 2026 compared to the annualised 10.1% pace for H2 2020 to 2025.
