Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Oct 07, 2026
Irish banks
Budget 2027 – SIA details revealed and bank levy rolled over
The final details of the savings and investment account (SIA), released yesterday (October 6th) as part of Budget 2027, are broadly in line with expectations and will provide a long-term platform for investment in a more tax-efficient manner. We reiterate our view that the impact on deposits will be manageable, factoring in the annual contribution amounts, with long-term benefits from deeper customer relationships. Elsewhere, the bank levy remains unchanged and has been rolled over for another year, with an increase in the Help-to-Buy rebate also announced.
Givaudan
Investor field trip – focus on Taste & Wellbeing Europe
We attended Givaudan’s recent investor field trip in Naarden, the Netherlands, which showcased Taste & Wellbeing (T&W) Europe, the division’s largest region at 28% of T&W sales. The event provided greater visibility on the key levers to improve growth, including deeper penetration of Local & Regional (L&R) customers, reformulation-led innovation and a dedicated push into foodservice. With comparatives easing and a better understanding of these growth levers, we modestly raise our 2027-28f Europe forecasts and expect recovery to build through 2028. Givaudan will report its Q3 results on October 13th.
Hostelworld
Conflict impacts volumes, leading to forecast reductions
Hostelworld has updated on Q3 trading. Volumes in the third quarter are behind our expectations owing to a bigger impact than anticipated from the conflict in the Middle East, which the company expects will continue into year end. It has also guided to a mid-single revenue growth rate for FY27 versus our forecast of 8% and Visible Alpha consensus of 10% growth. We spoke to management and they highlighted that the expectations for FY27 growth were conservative and did not assume any recovery in volumes despite the considerable headwind this year (-4 points in Q3). Although we acknowledge the unfortunate impact of the conflict on volumes, it is disappointing nonetheless to see earnings forecasts fall again.
Irish economy
Budget 2027 forecasts remain conservative
Many measures introduced in Budget 2027 will be popular with Irish households, including new tax-efficient savings and investment accounts. However, Budget forecasts remain conservative in our view; non-corporation taxes are expected to slow considerably in Q4 and 2027, and economic growth has been twice the pace that has been forecast over the last four years. We also assess Ireland’s underlying current budget surplus of c.€15bn, which we think is appropriate.
