Davy Morning Equity Briefing
May 07, 2026
Flutter Entertainment plc
Underlying expectations unchanged for the FY – should be well received
Flutter has reported Q1 numbers a little ahead of our expectations. Given Q1 makes up a relatively small part of the mix (particularly in the US), the focus quickly moves to guidance and outlook. The mid-point of the US aEBITDA guide has been moved by -$80m/8%, primarily owing to new state investment and some sports results, but importantly the underlying picture remains unchanged. The mid-point of the International guide has been reduced slightly, primarily owing to sports results. The group revenue guidance mid-point is broadly unchanged and group EBITDA is reduced by c.3.5%. We had observed bearish sentiment around the full year guidance coming into this print, so we believe this will be well received. We would particularly highlight management commentary on the improvement in underlying US trends in the quarter. It also appears to be in the early innings of a number of initiatives to drive better performance, including its loyalty programme in sports, new product initiatives and the “One App”, which brings FanDuel Predicts into the core app.
FBD Holdings
Underwriting trends in line; yield impact on investment return
FBD’s trading update demonstrates ongoing positive momentum from an underwriting perspective with trends in line with both guidance and our forecasts. The upward move in yields impacts other comprehensive income but to a far lesser extent than the impact in 2022. With underlying trends in line, we expect to leave our core forecasts, including distributions, unchanged.
Irish Continental Grp
Group executing through geopolitical turbulence
Irish Continental Group’s (ICG) scheduled AGM trading update continues the strong strategic implementation to date. It is too early to change our EBITDA 2026 estimates (€153.2m), but clearly there are increased risks and cost headwinds (probably in the c.€40m range) with fuel price disruption from the Middle East. Even then, c.70% of the business is freight with an automatic pass-through surcharge mechanism; the remainder is subject to supply/demand conditions in the market, with the summer key. We believe the business is set up for another strong performance in 2026.
Uniphar
AGM statement
Uniphar has published a trading statement ahead of its AGM later today. It notes its strong performance in 2025 and 16% CAGR in EPS since 2019. It also indicates that the first four months of 2026 have started well and are in line with expectations. It continues to expect organic gross profit growth in each division this year.
Irish economy
Steady underlying growth in April despite more tax volatility
An unusual upside surprise to corporation tax last month could reflect early payment of top-up taxes due from the middle of this year given very few companies are typically liable in April. Despite some volatility, we see continued evidence for economic growth having continued apace last month. Timing issues also appear to be a factor behind very fast current spending growth.
