Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Sep 28, 2026
Kingspan Group
BMC deal completed
The closing of the BMC acquisition had been expected in Q4, but its completion ahead of the end of the quarter is welcome and supports current year estimates. There is no impact on 2027 forecasts as we already include BMC, and the deal is one of the reasons why Kingspan’s trading profits are anticipated to rise by over 25% next year. The sense that BMC has been acquired at an attractive price gains further credence in the recently announced acquisition by Eaton, which is paying over 3.2x forecast 2027 sales for an Italian business, COL Group. The equivalent multiple for Kingspan/BMC is <1.5x.
Entain
Brazil – executive measure shuts the industry for now
Brazilian President Lula issued an executive order on September 25th that essentially closes the online sector in Brazil with immediate effect. The measure requires approval from Congress within 120 days to remain valid, so there appears to be scope for it to be annulled or amended. Entain has updated its guidance ranges as a result. This is another frustrating situation for the online industry. Brazil has had a bumpy start since regulation, and most operators’ revenues were down in H126 due to changes in regulation. As Brazil was still in investment mode, the profit impacts are relatively modest; however, it does potentially remove a region with attractive long-term growth prospects.
UK housebuilders
New Help to Buy scheme announced: a major positive catalyst for the sector
The new iteration of Help to Buy announced on Saturday (September 26th) is a significant additional policy support for the sector, one that will benefit each of the volume UK builders by substantially boosting demand. This is a major incremental positive for a sector that has struggled this year, facing high levels of material-led build cost inflation and rising mortgage interest rates. This is conditional on the localised price caps and income cap being reasonable; if these are set too low, the impact will accordingly be muted.
