Greencore Group

Model update – thesis remains intact; share decline fundamentally unjustified

We broadly maintain our underlying UK adjusted operating profit assumptions for Greencore across our forecast period while increasing our free cash flow (FCF) forecasts in FY27 and FY28. We now expect leverage (including leases) to fall to 1.8x by FY27. Despite broadly unchanged fundamentals, the shares have continued to weaken meaningfully. As a result, we believe the current valuation implies near-zero recognition of future synergies. We therefore view the recent pullback as an attractive entry point and reiterate our 360p price target (c.86% upside).

• Gary Martin CFA
• Morning briefing
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