Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Nov 05, 2026
Howden Joinery
Solid update with full year expectations unchanged
Howdens remains on track to meet underlying pre-tax profit consensus expectations for this year. This is encouraging and a further example of the resilience of its best-in-class operating model despite unfavourable market conditions. As ever, in terms of what it can control, Howdens remains very well positioned, with DIY Kitchens further enhancing an already formidable position.
Flutter Entertainment plc
Some encouraging metrics, but flagging investment in FY27
Flutter updated on Q3 yesterday (November 4th). Momentum in US Sports betting was encouraging, with strong handle and player growth offset slightly by unfavourable results. International was impacted by sports results, which had been well flagged by peers. FY26 guidance has been tweaked down, but mostly owing to the impact of sports results and this would have been largely expected. We think the underlying momentum in sports trumps the results impact. The statement references high levels of marketing intensity in FY27 — looking at the blocks outlined, that implies downward pressure on our FY27 forecasts. Detail on this on the call will be the key thing.
Vistry Group
Average daily net debt to be higher in H2 than targeted
Average daily net debt is now expected to be £800m in H2 — this is £50m incrementally negative to what was previously guided. Current open market conditions remain difficult. The company described these as similar to those previously noted in September when it reported a current net open market reservation rate of 0.3.
Air France KLM
Strong Q3 in terms of both pricing and cost
Air France KLM’s Q3 adjusted operating profit was €1,346m (Davy: €1,083m; consensus: €1,082m) with unit revenues up 7% and unit costs broadly stable. We expect consensus upgrades (consensus FY26: €1,725m; Davy: €1,932m). Net debt increased by €0.4bn to €8.8bn compared to December 31st 2025, primarily reflecting the repayment of the €498m hybrid (coupon 6.9%). The leverage ratio remained at 1.6x compared to December 31st 2025, in line with the group’s ambition of 1.5-2.0x.
TRIG plc
Q3 NAV stable
TRIG’s Q3 net asset value (NAV) was broadly stable, with higher power price forecasts and portfolio performance offset by higher discount rates. The FY26 dividend target aremains unchanged at 7.55p/share, with net dividend cover expected at 1.1x. Completion of the Beatrice disposal represents c.40% of the £400m capital realisation target, with further divestment processes underway.
Greencoat Renewables
Modest rise in Q3 NAV
Against a seasonally weak quarter for wind generation, Greencoat Renewables’ (GRP) Q3 net asset value (NAV) was broadly stable, with higher power prices offsetting below-budget generation and other negative NAV movements. With 2026 dividend cover guidance of 1.5x reiterated, focus increasingly turns to 2027 and execution on the group’s broader strategic initiatives. The breadth of the opportunity set remains encouraging, with disposals, hybridisation and development providing the avenues for value creation. Delivery across these initiatives will be key from here.
Irish economy
Net financial assets are up €434bn since 2013
Several data updates for the Irish economy this week reveal a continued benign backdrop for tax receipts, the labour market and Ireland’s financial balance sheet. Deleveraging by domestic sectors of the Irish economy has been a remarkable €434bn since 2013. In 2025 alone, the same sectors had €42bn of savings over and above their level of capital formation. We therefore see ample capacity to finance housing supply and infrastructure delivery without putting the sustainability of economic growth in jeopardy.
