Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Jul 31, 2026
Bank of Ireland
H1 26: bright start to strategic cycle
Six months into Bank of Ireland’s (BIRG) new strategic cycle, H1 provides tangible evidence of meaningful progress. Profits are ahead of forecast, accompanied by good activity levels and growth across key businesses in lending, deposits and wealth. Guidance for 2026 is upgraded, with net interest income (NII) across 2026-2028 also upgraded to reflect current rate expectations. This implies 4% upside to 2026, with no material change to consensus in 2027 and 2028.
Holcim
Q2 ahead of expectations; modest FY upgrades incoming
Strong organic growth of over 6% has driven a 5% beat versus consensus numbers on a recurring EBIT basis in Q2. All regions have contributed to the strong growth. With a good outlook into H2, the company has increased guidance for the year, which should lead to modest forecast increases to consensus estimates.
CRH
Strong Q2 results; FY26 guidance reiterated
Against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and rising cost inflation, CRH has delivered Q2 results showing strong growth and clearly ahead of our expectations. Underlying demand remains encouraging in the group’s markets, and FY26 guidance has been reiterated (including adjusted EBITDA of $8.1-8.5bn). CRH’s performance is impressive, as ever, and we believe the recent share price weakness is unjustified given the group’s track record. We reiterate our ‘Outperform’ rating.
Saint-Gobain Group
Impressive Q2 improvement sets up better-than-expected H1 EBITDA result
After a difficult first quarter, Saint-Gobain enjoyed a much-improved performance in Q2 with a return to volume growth for the first time in over four years. Both H1 revenues and EBITDA were better than expected, with the latter impressively 4% above the consensus expectation. Full year EBITDA margin guidance was reiterated, which is encouraging. The results and outlook suggest Saint-Gobain is well positioned strategically and operationally, with the investment case further supported by what remains a harsh valuation.
IMI plc
Positive H1 2026 results
IMI has reported strong H1 2026 results, reflecting continued organic growth and margin expansion with earnings above forecast. All divisions are performing well. IMI has reconfirmed full year earnings guidance. We see modest upside risk to full year forecasts but will leave our forecasts unchanged for now.
Taylor Wimpey plc
Market conditions to remain “challenging”
Taylor Wimpey expects market conditions to remain “challenging for the remainder of the year”. Underlying pricing was roughly 2% lower year-on-year (yoy) and the net private sale rate excluding bulk sales was 0.68, down 7% yoy. Build cost inflation also continues to be a challenge, with the company now expecting this to come in at 3-4% in FY 2026. It has revised down its distribution policy to 4% of net assets (7.5% previously).
IAG
Q2 broadly in line; delivering on strategy with operating margin at 12-15%
The Q2 result at €1,406m was broadly in line with estimates, and IAG expects to deliver full year operating margin within its 12-15% target range, generate significant free cash flow and maintain a strong and efficient balance sheet. We expect estimates to be broadly maintained, perhaps marginally shaved, and for the final performance to be at the lower end of the margin target range.
Irish economy
Spending growth has matched economic growth since 2019
Recent days have seen several new reports and data releases. The Mid-Year Expenditure Report (MYER) reiterates the Government’s aim, outlined in last week’s Summer Economic Statement, to target spending efficiency in Budget 2027. However, we find that since 2019, spending growth has not been misaligned compared to underlying growth in the Irish economy. Elsewhere, flash data for July inflation at 3.1% were in line with our forecast, whereas Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.9% was slower than our implied forecast.
Irish economy
Weak Q2 housing result driven by volatile apartments
Housing supply for Q2 was just 8.8k, well below our forecast for 11.2k. Volatile apartments explained all of this, with our forecast for 6.2k houses matching the result. We had previously noted that our quarterly profile for housing output this year was not ambitious, and a larger weight on H2 supply now looks likely. However, downside risks to our 2026 forecast (43k) have risen.
