Davy Morning Equity Briefing

Jul 30, 2026

AIB Group

H1 26: good activity levels

While net interest income (NII) is marginally behind expectations, this is more than offset by gains in other income as earnings beat forecasts. Importantly, business activity and volumes on both lending and deposits increased in H1 – indicating little, if any, impact from competition. Revised guidance implies a c.2% increase to Davy and consensus – mostly related to other income. Strongly capitalised, AIB Group (AIBG) remains well placed to grow and deliver attractive capital generation and returns in the coming years.

Heidelberg Materials

FY26 guidance lowered

Heidelberg Materials’ Q2 results are in line with our expectations and modestly ahead of consensus expectations, which had seen some downward revisions in advance of results. Guidance has been lowered by c.1.4% at the midpoint of the range, but consensus is already broadly in line with this reduced expectation.

Kingspan Group

H1 2026 results preview

Kingspan’s profit growth should accelerate from this year on, and the upcoming H1 results should represent a down payment on this expectation. The first half was not without its challenges, including adverse start-of-year weather and geopolitical headwinds, but momentum is building and the upcoming results should underline that Kingspan remains well positioned to make meaningful progress this year and beyond. The stock is ahead relatively modestly year to date, but we believe the results offer a good platform for the share price to kick on.

dsm-firmenich

Q2-26 organic sales and EBITDA ahead

Q2 results were better than expected for both organic growth and EBITDA. Strong volume growth was in evidence across all three divisions, with management noting an exceptionally good June performance. As expected, net debt was elevated in the half with deleveraging expected through the second half of 2026. The H1 results set a good foundation for the delivery of full-year targets.  

Symrise

Taste, Nutrition & Health activities driving better-than-expected performance in H1

Better-than-expected margin and sales delivery for Taste, Nutrition & Health (TNH) supported an EBITDA beat at group level in the period. Pet activities were back in Q2 but are expected to gradually improve through H2, while Scent & Care benefitted from a strong Q2 performance in Consumer Fragrance – helping to offset negative growth for Fine Fragrance. Cash conversion stepped up materially and provides confidence for full-year delivery. Overall, Symrise is on track to meet full-year expectations.

Air France KLM

Fuel recapture rate of circa 85%

In the circumstances, Air France KLM had a strong quarter with a fuel recapture rate of 85% (above the estimated 60%) and adjusted operating profit of €484m (consensus: €340m). Unit revenue at constant currency was up 8.7% thanks to the Passenger network, supported by ongoing premiumisation and Cargo, which benefitted from strong demand. The outlook is broadly unchanged.

Mondi

H1 in line with consensus; trading momentum “improving”

Adjusted EBITDA for the group declined in H1 2026 to €379m, pushed down by lower average paper prices compared to the year ago period and higher input prices. This was in line with Visible Alpha consensus expectations. CEO Andrew King noted that “Trading momentum improved through the first half…”.

Smurfit Westrock

Guidance for the year lowered due to input cost inflation

Smurfit Westrock delivered Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $1,140m, broadly in line with the Visible Alpha consensus forecast of $1,152m. However, the company lowered guidance for FY 2026 by 3% due to input cost inflation, particularly freight and energy costs.

Greencoat UK Wind

Solid H1, underpinned by strong cash generation

Greencoat UK Wind (UKW) has delivered a strong H1 performance. While net asset value (NAV) was broadly unchanged in Q2, the key takeaway is management's confidence that both EBITDA and net cash generation will finish towards the top end of FY26 guidance – highlighting the strength of the underlying portfolio and supportive power price environment. Attention will now turn to the 09:00 conference call, where we expect further discussion around capital allocation priorities and the opportunity set for deploying UKW's growing excess cash generation.

Greencoat Renewables

Q2 NAV declines; underlying performance remains resilient

Beneath the softer Q2 net asset value (NAV) print, the underlying operational performance of Greencoat Renewables (GRP) in Q2 remains encouraging. Despite portfolio production running 6% below budget, H1 net cash generation remained in line with expectations, and the full-year dividend cover outlook has improved. Looking ahead, successful execution of the capital allocation strategy remains central to the investment case, particularly asset disposals which will provide an important benchmark for the underlying portfolio value.

lastminute.com

Q2 resilience despite impact from conflict; outlook trimmed

Lastminute.com has reported Q2/H1 headline adjusted EBITDA of €11.2m (-23% yoy). Despite the Q2 impact from the Middle East conflict, which brought consumer uncertainty and a shift in booking patterns, the group delivered H1 revenue growth of 4% (Q2: -2%). Gross profits were down 8% in the impacted Q2 as a result of margin compression from increased marketing spend to stimulate bookings as booking patterns shifted. The company has revised its full-year outlook downwards to +5% revenue growth and +mid-single-digit to 10% adjusted EBITDA growth (previously +10% for both). Recent trading momentum has improved, with travel recovering from the softer April and May period and positive trends already visible in June and July trading. We expect to revise our estimates in line with company guidance.

Hostelworld

Interim results and takeaways from the presentation

Hostelworld released its interim results yesterday (July 28th). Most of the key line items had been pre-released, but management reiterated its confidence in delivering low-double-digit revenue growth in FY26 while assuming that the Middle East conflict eases and the operating environment stabilises. Volume growth in H1 was impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, and it is prudent to anticipate some ongoing disruption. At first glance, we will likely reduce our forecasts slightly to reflect this while staying within the guidance range.