Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Feb 27, 2026
Holcim
FY26 guidance broadly in line with expectations
Holcim’s Q4 recurring EBIT is c.3% ahead of consensus expectations, and guidance for 2026 is broadly in line with market forecasts. We do not expect material changes to forecasts from today’s announcement.
Saint-Gobain Group
2025 results in-line but uncertain environment limits scope for pick-up this year
Saint-Gobain’s 2025 results were in-line with expectations as the group delivered a decent performance despite a fourth consecutive year in which volumes contracted. As things stand, the overall outlook for this year appears to be more of the same with revenues and operating profit forecast to stay range-bound. The longer-term picture, however, is more promising, especially if Saint-Gobain can deliver on the ambitions its “Lead & Grow” strategy has set out.
Flutter Entertainment plc
A challenging quarter but clear signs that management is addressing
Flutter has released Q4/FY25 numbers. In the US, the final quarter of the year was behind our expectations and guidance as weaker handle trends caused by lower recycling and inefficient promotional spend impacted. International performance was resilient. Attention quickly shifts to the FY26 guidance. At the respective mid-points, group revenue is guided to grow 12% and aEBITDA is now expected to grow 4% (+14% growth excluding the Predicts launch). The aEBITDA forecast is c.15% below Visible Alpha recent consensus. However, the shares have de-rated very significantly and trade on 10.8x 2026 EV/EBITDA guidance. This is a significant discount to long-term averages. On the call, management struck a relatively confident tone that it will see sequential improvements in the US growth trajectory as it moves through 2026. Importantly, it is quite categoric that it is not seeing a meaningful impact from Prediction markets in its regulated sports betting states.
IAG
Over €5bn in operating income; returning €1.5bn excess cash
IAG delivered record profitability with operating profit of €5,024m in line with expectations (operating margin of 15.1%, ROIC of 18.5%). The total dividend payment is €448m, and IAG is returning €1,500m cash to shareholders. IAG remains one of the core investments in the aviation sector. Outlook guidance is positive, notably on cost. We maintain our ‘Outperform’ rating and 525p price target.
TRIG plc
Further deleveraging and divestments expected in 2026
TRIG’s FY25 results confirm the trends evident in its recent net asset value (NAV) update. Asset disposals – supportive of its NAV but also rightsizing its balance sheet – are likely to be the focus going into 2026. We view the May 2026 Capital Markets Seminar as an important opportunity for the Board to set out its strategy ahead of the June Continuation Vote.
