Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Nov 03, 2026
Vistry Group
Data show no private sales rate recovery; moving to ‘Underperform’
Data gleaned from Vistry Group’s public-facing websites indicate that its net private reservation rate has not improved since the summer low of 0.3 and that incentive use has stayed high at c.5-7%. We believe there is downside risk to FY26 guidance. We lower our FY26 adjusted profit before tax (PBT) estimate to £100.4m, reduce our price target to 216p and cut our rating to ‘Underperform’.
Lufthansa
Refines earnings goal, showing pricing power
Lufthansa is refining its earnings forecast to €1.7-2.0bn adjusted EBIT (previously €1.7-2.2bn, consensus: €1,723m, Davy: €1,996m). Where in the range will depend not only on fuel costs and demand, but also on Lufthansa Cargo’s earnings performance in the fourth quarter. The Q3 fuel recapture rate of ~85% for network airlines mitigates fuel headwind, while higher jet fuel prices raise Q4 ambition. The building blocks from 2027 include mid-single-digit ASK growth (focus on intercontinental, with continental flat). This is low-single digits adjusted for strike, Middle East and CityLine closure. Network airlines’ CASK reduction versus the prior year, with the fuel bill above previous year’s level (including hedge ratio of >60% for passenger airlines).
Associated British Foods
FY26 results – caution remains on FY27
Associated British Foods’ (ABF) FY26 results were broadly in line with expectations, with headline numbers pre-announced in September. FY27 guidance remains unchanged for Sugar and Primark, while the outlook for Grocery has softened modestly. At first look, we envisage modest downside risk to FY27 estimates. The 09:00 earnings call will be key and may provide further clarity on Primark’s volume response to recent price reductions, its forward margin assumptions and the underlying drivers of expected Sugar losses.
