Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Feb 06, 2026
Kenmare
Model update
We update our forecasts on Kenmare to reflect the guidance on production and shipments given in the recent Q4 production report. We lower our price assumptions in 2025. We leave EBITDA unchanged in 2026 but lower it in both 2025 and 2027. These changes do not impact our net present value (NPV).
Irish economy
Taxes are still likely to exceed official forecasts this year
Exchequer returns for January showed a slowdown in core tax receipts. However, the 2025 results exceeded Budget 2026 forecasts, and tax receipts this year would now need to be particularly weak for official forecasts not to be well exceeded. We also note that indicators of consumer spending in Q4 continue to flourish, as seen through much of last year. Current spending growth is likely to slow, whereas we expect capital spending growth will accelerate as the year continues.
Irish economy
Revised unemployment rate in Q4 points to faster jobs growth
Yesterday’s revisions to Q4 unemployment align with our view that the labour force survey has been more volatile than the actual employment situation. The pattern of the monthly unemployment rate is considerably more benign since the summer. This especially applies to the youth unemployment rate, which has been revised down 2.6pp for December to within a typical range in recent years of c.10-12%. We note a number of reasons why survey data could be less reliable than administrative payrolls in terms of assessing Ireland’s labour market.
