Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Aug 25, 2026
Irish banks
Banks monthly – competitive disruption: more noise than threat
We continue to believe that concerns of competitive disruption are overstated. The banking market changed immeasurably when Ulster Bank and KBC, two long-established challengers, exited in 2021; this was the opportunity to acquire primary relationships. While new entrants have increased since then, no material impact is notable. We expect competition to increase gradually in a market that continues to grow but see little evidence of disruption that would materially alter forecasts or the valuation outlook.
Irish economy
Population hit 5.53m in 2026, close to our 5.54m forecast
Population and migration data for the year to April 2026, released yesterday (August 24th), showed a total of 5.53m, close to our forecast of 5.54m and above official forecasts ranging from 5.44m to 5.52m. Net migration slowed to 48k, although we still expect upward revisions after next year’s Census. Immigration for the key 25-44 age group surprisingly fell by 21%, whereas comparable administrative data grew by 6.6% for the same period. Zooming out, we expect an upward trend for both immigration and emigration to continue, driven by a combination of Ireland’s strong economy and housing challenges.
