Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Oct 05, 2026
US economy
September payrolls rise though below consensus expectations
Despite missing consensus by 60k, the initial estimate of 29k net jobs added to payrolls in September still points to a solid, if unremarkable, US labour market in Q3. The average monthly change in payrolls since June amounted to c.51k, comfortably above various estimates of neutral or “breakeven” jobs growth close to zero this year. The result will not alter thinking by much at the Federal Reserve as its end-October decision approaches, with inflation remaining the key driver of a possible rate hike.
Irish economy
Tax receipts remain well in excess of official forecasts
Tax receipts were exceptionally strong in September. While corporation tax continued to benefit from a higher rate and strong corporate profitability, non-corporation taxes also performed far stronger than official forecasts. The direction of travel for the Irish economy is clearly favourable this year. Despite much focus on overspending by various Departments, Ireland’s budget surplus looks on course to far exceed all expectations again this year.
