Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Oct 24, 2025
AIB Group
Reduction in mortgage rates
While some of the rate reductions are large, this is a reflection of fixed rate pricing being out of the market relative to some peers. As a result of its position, AIB Group (AIBG) has grown new mortgage lending at lower rates than peers and yesterday’s (October 23rd) move is aimed at correcting course. We do not foresee any material changes to our forecasts arising from these actions.
Irish banks
Q3 mortgage drawdowns and approvals: continued strength
Irish mortgaging activity remained strong in Q3, driven by first-time buyers (FTBs) and a continued rebound in re-mortgaging. Approvals continue to push record highs. With sustained momentum through 2025, we modestly upgrade our medium-term drawdown forecasts. Structural demand and refinancing tailwinds remain key supports.
Holcim
Q3 EBIT ahead of forecasts; FY guidance unchanged
Good momentum in margins, particularly in Europe and AMEA, saw the company beat consensus EBIT expectations by 3% in Q3. Full year guidance has been maintained and a healthy outlook into 2026 has been provided.
CVS Group
Proposed change to listing and announcement of share buyback
CVS Group has announced that it intends to move from AIM to the main market of the London Stock Exchange. This is intended to give access to a deeper pool of capital. It has also announced a £20m share buyback. These actions are aimed at improving the stock’s valuation multiples.
Irish economy
Housing completions increase but still underwhelm in Q3
New dwelling completions increased modestly in Q3, owing to an underwhelming result for scheme houses. By contrast, single (one-off) houses grew strongly while apartments were close to our forecast of c.3k. Our above-consensus forecast of 37.5k new homes built in 2025 looks unlikely to be achieved. However, we remain encouraged by the large increase in construction employment for residential developments seen in Q2 and the significant pipeline of homes commenced over the past year.
