Davy Morning Equity Briefing
May 08, 2026
Irish banks
Central Bank updates – market concentration in lending and capital levels reaffirmed
The Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) finds that lending market concentration is lower than expected once non‑bank lenders (NBL), credit unions and foreign banks are included rather than focusing solely on domestic retail banks. These lenders are particularly active in consumer finance and business lending, materially reducing concentration in both segments. By contrast, concentration in the residential mortgage market remains moderately elevated. Separately, the CBI has reaffirmed current regulatory capital requirements and see no evidence to justify a reduction.
DraftKings
Good Q1 and guidance reassures
DraftKings reported a relatively good Q1, ahead of our forecasts, driven by Sportsbook. Focus quickly shifts to the guidance where the midpoint of the revenue and EBITDA ranges have been held constant. The CEO again highlights that Prediction Markets are not having a discernible impact on its (regulated) Sportsbook business. Its own Prediction Markets app is now live in its flagship app and it is making progress on product rollout, noting that it increasingly sees its Sportsbook capability as a key advantage in the Prediction Markets space. At first glance, we will not make meaningful changes to our forecasts, which is encouraging in the context of the bearish sentiment towards the sector.
IAG
Expects 60% pass through on fuel
IAG is trading well in Q1, but as expected it is likely to have a significantly higher fuel bill for FY2026. Based on the fuel curve as at May 5th 2026, including hedging positions and sustainability costs, fuel cost would be c.€9.0bn (€7.4bn previously). We expect consensus operating profit to settle in the €4.6bn range. IAG expects to recover around 60% of the higher fuel cost during this year through its revenue and cost management actions. This would leave the group in the mid-range of its 12-15% medium-term margin guidance.
Greencoat Renewables
Q1 NAV rises modestly
Greencoat Renewables (GRP) has reported a modest uplift in Q1 net asset value (NAV), reinforcing momentum following its March strategy reset. Underlying portfolio performance remains in line with expectations, with potential upside to fullyear cash generation should recent strength in power price markets persist into Q2. While the stock has clearly benefited from its refreshed capital allocation plans (+15% year-to-date), successful execution of planned disposals remains key.
