Grafton Group

A new era

A new era for Grafton is underway. Recent acquisitions represent judicious deployment of the group’s considerable financial capacity, and we believe a possible multi-year earnings upcycle has commenced.

The recent deals – Cygnum and Mercaluz – are attractive assets and augment Grafton’s exposure to the multi-year structural growth potential of the Irish and Spanish construction markets (combined over 65% of trading profit). One salient knock-on impact is that Great Britain, once the engine of Grafton’s earnings base, has fallen back to only around 20% of divisional operating profit.

The Grafton share price, however, has yet to respond to what are positive developments and therein lies a real opportunity. We reiterate our ‘Outperform’ recommendation and 1150p price target, which implies upside of circa 40% from current levels.

• Flor O'Donoghue
• Morning briefing
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Glenveagh Properties

Buybacks drive upward momentum in forecasts

As part of our model update, we reflect on the significant work done by Glenveagh Properties to return profits and capital to shareholders through buybacks. The company has reduced the number of outstanding shares by 42% since the end of 2020, and we believe that this could reach almost 60% by the end of 2028. We increase our price target by c.3% to 256c and reiterate our 'Outperform' rating.

• Colin Sheridan CFA
• Morning briefing
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Howden Joinery

Accelerating growth and returns drive further upgrades

We are upgrading our IRES forecasts once again. We see net tangible asset (NTA) value per share growth and EPRA EPS growth accelerating to 8% in 2027 and 2028 with potential upside. The returns that we now expect in 2026-2028 are the largest ever as a percentage of IRES’ market cap. This follows a positive shift in momentum in 2025 after a number of years of negative returns.

• Colin Grant
• Morning briefing
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