Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Sep 21, 2026
UK economy
Bank of England holds and August retail sales improve
A busy week of UK economy news culminated in Friday’s (September 18th) retail sales result for August, which showed a reversal of July’s headline decline. While the UK economy could outperform expectations this year, the bigger picture remains that output has been operating below potential for many years. The Bank of England’s (BoE) split decision to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% could set the stage for a hike in November, but this is not a done deal owing to the weak UK labour market and the related continued absence of second-round effects of higher energy prices so far this year.
Irish economy
July payrolls data show strong labour market continued in Q3
In keeping with exchequer returns for July and August, employee payrolls data for July point to the continued strength of Ireland’s labour market. We estimate annual growth remained at 2.4% in the three months to July, and note the importance of jobs growth among older workers in this outcome. The ageing population and later retirement are likely helping to keep Ireland’s labour market in a stronger position than the multi-year decline in new job postings data would suggest.
