Davy Morning Equity Briefing
Nov 21, 2025
US economy
Payroll revisions continue to trend negatively
Total non-farm employment in the US went up by 119k in September following a 4k decline (revised down from a 22k increase) in August. This continues a recent pattern of negative revision to payrolls, which aligns with what has been seen previously prior to the onset of a recession. The unemployment rate also hit a four-year high at 4.4%. Our analysis shows that payrolls in sectors with above-average wages increased by 67k after a 77k decrease in August, while jobs with below-average wages grew 51k following a 75k increase in August.
Irish economy
Q3 survey-based employment at odds with hard-data payrolls
The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed a marked slowdown in employment growth to 1.1% compared to Q3 2024. This is somewhat below our latest forecast and chimes with other indicators of a slowdown into the autumn, including consumer spending and a higher unemployment rate. However, some good news included an 8% increase for construction work with a focus on residential. Furthermore, the survey-based figure can be volatile, having grown 3.3% in Q1, and it is notably weaker than often-reliable employee payrolls where Q3 growth held up well at 2.5%.
