Davy Morning Equity Briefing

Oct 23, 2026

AIB Group

Further progress on P2R

While modest, the reduction in Pillar 2 Required (P2R) is welcome, with total P2R reduced by 55bps since the 2023 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP). Of this reduction, 31bps relates to its CET 1 requirements over the same period. Irish bank capital requirements are higher than those across Europe, feeding into higher management targets. AIB Group (AIBG) has held its management CET 1 target at 14% and the further decline in SREP for 2027 will likely support this stance.

Irish banks

Strong mortgage activity in Q3

Mortgage activity continued its upward trajectory with strong momentum in both drawdowns and approvals recorded for September. While re-mortgaging growth will catch the headlines, underlying growth, particularly in first-time buyers (FTBs), remains strong and points to ongoing growth in the stock of mortgage lending.

Holcim

FY26 guidance increased following strong Q3 growth

Strong results in the LatAm and AMEA regions have driven a 3% beat in Q3 at a recurring EBIT level. FY26 recurring EBIT growth guidance has been improved by 1% at the midpoint, and there should be modest upside risk to estimates following today’s update.

Malin Corporation

Update on Viamet investment

Malin has provided an update on its investment in Viamet, which was previously acquired by Mycovia. Mycovia had submitted a new drug application in the US but this has not been approved. Malin has now indicated that it expects to write off the value of its investment in Viamet in its H2 results, reducing its portfolio NAV.

UK economy

Declines for retail sales and consumer confidence

Retail sales fell in September compared to an upward-revised result in August, and October’s consumer confidence was also below consensus expectations. The summer months had seen retail sales improve, with the “Burnham bounce” and World Cup possible factors contributing to a more upbeat mood for consumers. However, the sell-off in global government bonds since September has already resulted in tighter financial conditions in advance of next week’s well-flagged hike to Bank Rate, with mortgage rates and energy prices both moving higher. Allied to uncertainty about next week’s Budget, we now expect retail sales – and economic growth – to be weaker into Q4.