Greencore Group

Model update – shares remain significantly undervalued

We are increasing our FY27 and FY28 adjusted operating profit forecasts for Greencore by c.2.5%, reflecting stronger-than- anticipated FY26 profit conversion. We are also meaningfully lowering our net debt estimates and now expect leverage to reach the low end of Greencore’s medium-term target range of 1-1.5x by end-FY27. In our view, continued underlying efficiencies should support further margin progression, while growing traction on new business wins provides a broader base of recurring volumes and greater durability to the earnings outlook. Despite this progress and the enhanced balance sheet position, the shares continue to trade at a discount to relevant peers, with limited value ascribed to the remaining cost synergy opportunity. We maintain our ‘Outperform’ rating and 360p price target.

• Gary Martin CFA
• Morning briefing
• Read Important Disclosures