DAVY VIEW

Despite missing consensus by 60k, the initial estimate of 29k net jobs added to payrolls in September still points to a solid, if unremarkable, US labour market in Q3. The average monthly change in payrolls since June amounted to c.51k, comfortably above various estimates of neutral or “breakeven” jobs growth close to zero this year. The result will not alter thinking by much at the Federal Reserve as its end-October decision approaches, with inflation remaining the key driver of a possible rate hike.