DAVY VIEW

Employment was subdued again in Q2 based on today’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) results. This was as we expected based on July’s unemployment rate estimate (revised up slightly today to 5.1%) as it incorporates much of the LFS data. However, as we have long noted, other hard-data signals indicate that Ireland has a far stronger labour market this year. We expect June payrolls data will show stronger growth in employees above 2% and that population growth will be revised up after Census 2027.