DAVY VIEW

We have long expected residential property prices to moderate this year from very fast gains of 7.9% for the last five years. We recently downgraded our forecast for 2026 to 4.75% from 5.5%, but based on monthly gains in May and June, this now looks conservative. We therefore revert to our prior forecast of 5.5%; this still implies a far slower pace of monthly gains in H2 2026 compared to the annualised 10.1% pace for H2 2020 to 2025.