DAVY VIEW

We have noted for some time increased uncertainty surrounding the official labour market data, which have been volatile and difficult to interpret due to base effects. The latest Q1 2026 results show a far weaker picture than other hard-data sources, including employee payrolls and income tax receipts which grew robustly. Weaker response rates and consumer sentiment could be factors behind survey results becoming less reliable. We also suspect that adult population growth will be revised up with Census 2027.