DAVY VIEW

The main economic news of note this week relates to the UK economy, where key updates will cover the labour market, consumer prices, government borrowing and retail sales. Higher headline inflation is assured owing to energy prices and war in the Middle East, but April should still bring some relief through base effects and new policies. Elsewhere, US retail sales and various surveys of businesses and consumers will provide timely insight to possible resilience of developed economies despite ongoing war-driven disruption. We also consider some reasons that Ireland’s official surplus forecast for 2026 could exceed October’s €5bn.