DAVY VIEW

Market pricing for interest rates have inflected sharply this month since US and Israel strikes began on Iran. Much will depend on the duration of the war and when the Strait of Hormuz reopens. While risks are high, we do not expect a return to double-digit inflation in developed economies as a result of higher energy prices, as seen four years ago after Russia invaded Ukraine. We also look at last week’s negative US payrolls result for February, along with downward revisions to December’s data. For the week ahead, US and UK GDP results are highlights, along with the US consumer price index and Irish employee payrolls data.