DAVY VIEW

Exchequer returns for January showed a slowdown in core tax receipts. However, the 2025 results exceeded Budget 2026 forecasts, and tax receipts this year would now need to be particularly weak for official forecasts not to be well exceeded. We also note that indicators of consumer spending in Q4 continue to flourish, as seen through much of last year. Current spending growth is likely to slow, whereas we expect capital spending growth will accelerate as the year continues.