DAVY VIEW

This morning’s revisions to Q4 unemployment align with our view that the labour force survey has been more volatile than the actual employment situation. The pattern of the monthly unemployment rate is considerably more benign since the summer. This especially applies to the youth unemployment rate, which has been revised down 2.6pp for December to within a typical range in recent years of c.10-12%. We note a number of reasons why survey data could be less reliable than administrative payrolls in terms of assessing Ireland’s labour market.