DAVY VIEW

We have long noted the advantage of employee payrolls data over survey-based measures. That said, the data should be interpreted with an understanding that upward revisions are typical. While the slowdown in November’s payrolls looks dramatic in headline terms, our estimate of three-month annual growth remains healthy at about 2%, with prior-year revisions factored in. Furthermore, we show that October’s upward revision was unusually large, so our estimate could prove to be somewhat low. Broader indicators of Ireland’s labour market, including tax data and job postings, suggest tailwinds heading into 2026.