DAVY VIEW

The Irish Government published its long-delayed medium-term fiscal plan last month, aiming to slow current spending growth to 5.9% a year, down from more than 7.5% a year since 2019. However, we think actual growth will be faster than this, mainly due to a faster-growing economy than the Government’s plan allows. Abroad, dramatic events at the weekend saw the US capture Venezuela’s president, marking a disruptive start to geopolitics in 2026. By contrast, normal data service resumes following the US Government shutdown with non-farm payrolls for December and job openings data for November both due this week.