DAVY VIEW

We think the most relevant indicator in the quarterly national accounts is labour income given it is based on a hard-data source from administrative tax records. Labour income grew 6.7% in Q3, and has grown strongly all year. However, implied hourly wage growth is likely overstated since the labour force survey informing hours worked has been soft compared to both monthly employee payrolls and the strong November income tax receipts. 2025 GDP also looks set to exceed consensus growth forecasts of c.10%.