DAVY VIEW

Total non-farm employment in the US went up by 119k in September following a 4k decline (revised down from a 22k increase) in August. This continues a recent pattern of negative revision to payrolls, which aligns with what has been seen previously prior to the onset of a recession. The unemployment rate also hit a four-year high at 4.4%. Our analysis shows that payrolls in sectors with above-average wages increased by 67k after a 77k decrease in August, while jobs with below-average wages grew 51k following a 75k increase in August.