DAVY VIEW

The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed a marked slowdown in employment growth to 1.1% compared to Q3 2024. This is somewhat below our latest forecast and chimes with other indicators of a slowdown into the autumn, including consumer spending and a higher unemployment rate. However, some good news included an 8% increase for construction work with a focus on residential. Furthermore, the survey-based figure can be volatile, having grown 3.3% in Q1, and it is notably weaker than often-reliable employee payrolls where Q3 growth held up well at 2.5%.