DAVY VIEW

With a continuing US government shutdown, the release schedule for the week ahead is relatively light, apart from Ireland’s Budget 2026 tomorrow (October 7th). Last week, the September exchequer returns showed strong corporation tax, weaker income taxes and more moderate spending growth. Over the weekend, updated official forecasts for corporation tax this year and next are now above €30bn a year, similar to our July forecast. The surplus forecast this year is now above €10bn, albeit this is likely to decline once new Budget 2026 measures are accounted for.