DAVY VIEW

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) meets this week and updated staff macroeconomic projections are also due. Annual revisions to US payrolls for the year to March 2025 are likely to be similar in magnitude to -600k a year ago, while consumer price inflation for August is unlikely to influence a now-certain rate reduction for the Federal Reserve this month. UK GDP for July is expected to incorporate last week’s revisions to retail sales for recent months. After last week’s busy schedule of releases for the Irish economy, monthly payrolls for July is the highlight of a relatively quiet schedule this week; we expect continued growth of c.2.5% for the three months to July.