DAVY VIEW

Ireland’s population rose 1.5% in the year to April 2025, reaching 5.46m and matching our long-standing forecast. The result is above the baseline post-Census 2022 projection of 1.3% growth to 5.42m. Both immigration and emigration fell, with net inward migration just under 60k. However, this could prove to be an underestimate given the typical pattern of Census revisions. In keeping with public service numbers data, immigration for most working-age adults (aged 25-44) remained high despite a surprising 51% decline in estimated arrivals aged 45 and over. Net outward migration of Irish nationals continued for a fourth year in a row, although we expect this could begin to reverse if housing availability improves over the coming years. We continue to expect population growth at c.1.5-1.6% a year out to 2030.