DAVY VIEW

Ireland’s monthly unemployment rate was revised considerably higher last week. Similar revisions have taken place in recent years however, and we note two likely statistical drivers for this: new Q2 labour force survey data and a Live Register category included for the first time in July. While income tax receipts were soft in July, we think slower wage growth for high-earning sectors is a better explanation for this and labour demand remains solid. This week, President Trump’s baseless criticism of the Bureau of Labor Statistics could continue if US consumer prices show an expected acceleration in July. For the UK, GDP for Q2 and labour market data for June and July will be scrutinised following last week’s marginal Bank of England decision to cut Bank Rate.