Subdued Q4 mortgage activity

  • Sectors : Banks
  • Companies : permanent tsb Group | AIB Group | Bank of Ireland


Ratings and price correct at time of issue

Company Rating Date Previous Rating Date Closing Price
AIB Group OUTPERFORM 23/01/19 Neutral 14/08/18 400c
Bank of Ireland OUTPERFORM 11/03/13 Neutral 14/08/12 820c
permanent tsb Group OUTPERFORM 04/02/21 Neutral 06/03/19 171c


The seasonal pick-up, typically seen in mortgage activity in Q4, did not fully materialise in 2023 – resulting in lower new lending for house purchase compared to our forecast. On first read, lower housing transactions appear to be the main driver, particularly in the existing homes market. Assessing forecasts, implies slower growth in 2024 and 2025 than currently forecast, albeit a reduction in new lending flow relative to a large stock should limit the hit to net interest income to c.1% in 2024 and 2025.

Download full report with analyst certification and important disclosures

Jan 26 2024, 07:20 GMT