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Jan 26 2024, 07:20 GMT
Banks
Subdued Q4 mortgage activity
- Sectors : Banks
- Companies : permanent tsb Group | AIB Group | Bank of Ireland
Ratings
Ratings and price correct at time of issue
| Company | Rating | Date | Previous Rating | Date | Closing Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIB Group | OUTPERFORM | 23/01/19 | Neutral | 14/08/18 | 400c |
| Bank of Ireland | OUTPERFORM | 11/03/13 | Neutral | 14/08/12 | 820c |
| permanent tsb Group | OUTPERFORM | 04/02/21 | Neutral | 06/03/19 | 171c |
DAVY VIEW
The seasonal pick-up, typically seen in mortgage activity in Q4, did not fully materialise in 2023 – resulting in lower new lending for house purchase compared to our forecast. On first read, lower housing transactions appear to be the main driver, particularly in the existing homes market. Assessing forecasts, implies slower growth in 2024 and 2025 than currently forecast, albeit a reduction in new lending flow relative to a large stock should limit the hit to net interest income to c.1% in 2024 and 2025.
