DAVY VIEW

The fact that Irish households’ retail electricity and natural gas bills have yet to decline since their peak in October will soon become a contentious political issue and is an upside risk for our forecast that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will be back towards 2% by end-2023. One-quarter of natural gas customers are now in arrears on their bills. Retail natural gas prices have declined by 20% in the EU27 since October, and the average UK household energy bill will fall from £2,500 to £2,000 in July when the Ofgem price cap kicks in.