DAVY VIEW

Thursday’s (April 13th) UK GDP data could well show activity bouncing back in February with broadly flat growth now likely in Q1 2023. This follows better-than-expected retail sales data and the pick-up in the Services PMI to 52.9 in March. The GDP data will likely reinforce the view that the UK will escape a technical recession this year and beat the overly pessimistic consensus forecast for a 0.5% contraction in calendar year 2023.