DAVY VIEW

The consensus view is that today’s euro area GDP release for Q4 2022 will show flat growth, revised down from a marginal 0.1% expansion, principally due to the deeper 0.4% contraction that is now estimated to have taken place in the German economy in the final months of 2022. However, these expectations may not have fully taken on board the enormous downward revision to Irish GDP growth in Q4 from 3.5% to just 0.3%. This may have pushed aggregate euro area GDP growth into negative territory.