DAVY VIEW

This morning’s Banking and Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) data are showing drawdowns of €4.4bn in Q4 2022, and €14.1bn in calendar year 2022 is exactly in line with our forecasts. The €1bn of mortgage approvals in December are a little weak. However, many first-time buyers may have waited until the new year to take advantage of the loosening in the Central Bank’s lending rules. Our new forecast is that mortgage lending will grow to €14.5bn in 2023, helped by improving market liquidity and house price rises.