DAVY VIEW

We have revised down our forecast for Irish GDP growth to 3.5% in 2023 (5.8% previously), reflecting the squeeze on consumers from higher energy prices and likely recessions in Europe and the UK. However, as in the pandemic, we expect Ireland’s defensive export sector will provide protection – keeping GDP growth in positive territory. In this context, Ireland’s housing market should be resilient, with the public finances still running a surplus in 2023.