DAVY VIEW

Following acrimonious talks yesterday (May 12th) yielding little progress, the EU and UK now look set for a stand-off on the Brexit trade deal and Northern Ireland protocol. As in previous rounds, negotiations will likely drag on through the summer with no definitive outcome but avoiding the worst-case scenario of a full-blown trade war. The UK’s cost-of-living crisis will act to encourage Johnson’s government not to provoke this outcome.