DAVY VIEW

We have revised up our forecast for Irish GDP growth in 2022 to 8.2% because we expect the erratic 5% contraction in Q1 2021 to unwind in early 2022. Also, Ireland’s defensive export sector should remain buoyant, less exposed to global demand and supply-chain issues. In contrast, we expect a soft patch for consumer spending in mid-2022 as CPI inflation accelerates to a peak of 8%, leading to a slightly weaker recovery for the domestic economy – forecast to grow by 6% in 2022 (6.7% previously).