DAVY VIEW

MyHome asking price inflation was 9% in Q3 2021, down from 13% in Q2 but slowing as expected as a large base effect fell out of the annual comparison. Nonetheless, we have decided to revise up our forecast for Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) inflation to 10% in 2021. This is because of evidence from the MyHome report that transaction prices are now being settled well above asking prices. The stock of homes listed for sale remains at exceptionally low levels, just 13,500 at end-Q3, little changed from Q2. However, housing starts have bounced back sharply — there were 29,000 starts in the year to July.