DAVY VIEW

High frequency data underpin our view that Irish GDP will see a significant contraction due to the third lockdown but likely less than half the 6% decline in H1 2020. The housing market is bucking the trend, with transactional activity maintained despite restrictions and house price expectations buoyant. However, Apple/Google mobility data show workplace activity and transport operating at lower levels in Ireland than in other EU countries, indicating that domestic facing sectors have ‘catch-up’ to do as vaccines are rolled out.