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Oct 5 2020, 07:58 IST/BST
September’s exchequer returns show tax revenues remaining resilient and the growth in spending moderating, leaving our forecast for the 2020 deficit to equal €22bn (6.3% of GDP) on track or even a little conservative. However, the better-than-expected public finance data will add to political pressure for more stimulus in October’s Budget for 2021. We would expect at least €3bn (1% of GDP) of measures, which may push up the Department of Finance’s opening deficit forecast of 4.5-5.5% of GDP in 2021.