DAVY VIEW

The news that COVID-19 welfare payments have increased to 507,000 workers points to a 22% drop in employment. Added to the 120,000 unemployed in February, that would imply an unemployment rate of 26%; however, we suspect many will not be counted as ‘actively seeking work’. The hit to Irish GDP should be smaller than 22% given that these workers are more likely to be part-time or working in the construction and retail sectors where productivity is relatively low.