DAVY VIEW

October’s monthly UK GDP data showed the economy flatlining, despite evidence of a temporary boost from stock building ahead of the Brexit deadline. With the Composite PMI at 49.3 in November, there is a very real possibility UK GDP could contract again in Q4 2019. Of course, sentiment may rebound should the Conservative’s win a majority, but the ‘cliff-edge’ will merely be pushed out to end-2020, hurting business investment. So, any Brexit boost to the UK economy is likely to be short-lived.