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Feb 3 2022, 07:00 GMT
The value-add ingredients sector has a long history of managing input cost inflation. Givaudan’s expectation of 9% input cost inflation for 2022 is well above historic norms but not unprecedented (15% in 2011). We model an under-recovery of input cost inflation in FY22, which drives a 6.8% cut to our underlying EBITDA forecast. We expect Givaudan to fully recover inflation via price increases by end-FY23 — we view any inflation-led margin dislocation as temporary. We remain bullish on the structural growth prospects for the sector and its ability to manage inflation and, as such, we retain our ‘Outperform’ rating.
Feb 3 2022, 07:00 GMT