DAVY VIEW

Ibstock is having to deal with multiple negative variables that are weighing heavily on the group’s performance: soft demand from a weak UK housing market, notably the new build sector; elevated energy costs (albeit hedging measures are helping); and an intrinsically high fixed cost base. Q3 sales were significantly below expectations and this has prompted a big reduction in full year adjusted EBITDA guidance. The revised guidance points to a likely 20%+ cut to full year adjusted EBITDA expectations, with the second-half result likely to be almost 50% lower than H2 2026.