DAVY VIEW

We update our AIB Group (AIBG) forecast model post the H1 results, with no material changes to our earnings outlook. H1 2026 provided reassurance on growth levels and competition, while questions remain on the impact of the state’s proposed Investment and Savings Accounts (which we think will be modest) and net interest income trajectory. Clarity on both is likely to come later in Q3. The updated strategy to end-2030, due March 2027, will provide an important barometer on AIBG’s ambition. We retain our ‘Outperform’ rating and upgrade our price target to €11.82.